Fantasy Football Conviction Picks: Week 4 predictions to count on
Our analysts reveal the fantasy football takes they have the most conviction for heading into Week 4 to help you feel better about the lineup decisions ahead. For more sit-start advice, check out our rankings hub.
Josh Jacobs is about to run wild
With three games in the books, Josh Jacobs has only rushed for 108 yards, which is not ideal. Incredibly, 99 of his 108 yards have been gained after contact according to PFF, revealing a little something about where, exactly, tacklers are greeting him. It’s rare that he gets a free run to the line of scrimmage this season. Jacobs is still his usual elusive self when he gets the ball in his hands in space as a receiver, so there’s no obvious reason to fret about an erosion of skills or the effects of his holdout. He’s still a great back who dominates touches for his team.
What Jacobs needs in the worst way is a friendly matchup to exploit — and, this week, he gets it. The Raiders are traveling to face the Chargers on Sunday, which means a date with a defense that ranks next-to-last in the NFL, allowing a ridiculous 450.7 YPG. The Chargers just put Alexander Mattison back on track and they’re about to do the same for Jacobs. Keep him in your fantasy plans and in your lineups. — Andy Behrens
Keenan Allen and Davante Adams battle for WR1, again
Last week was a perfect storm of points for Keenan Allen (18-215-0 and 49-yard touchdown pass, 36.46 fantasy points) and Davante Adams (13-172-2, 35.70 fantasy points), as they were 1-2 in weekly scoring. Get ready for them to run it back.
When the Raiders and Chargers take the field at SoFi Stadium, Allen is going to be leaned on heavily with Mike Williams out for the season. With 32 receptions, the Chargers’ receiver is tops in the NFL. Quarterback Justin Herbert will look for his primary target early and often against a defense that allowed 273 yards and three touchdowns to Josh Allen, the only elite quarterback the Raiders have faced.
Adams remains at the top of his game, drawing a 39.4% target share. With the Chargers allowing a league-high 359.7 passing yards per game, this game has shootout written all over it, with the two alpha receivers right in the middle. — Jorge Martin
This is the Ja’Marr Chase eruption week
Forced to play almost exclusively out of shotgun, thanks to Joe Burrow’s calf injury, Cincinnati’s offense hasn’t looked right this season. But it did come to life in the second half of Monday night’s game, when Chase finished with 15 targets. He’s among the league leaders in targets yet hasn’t scored in 2023 after racking up 22 touchdowns over his first 29 games in the NFL. The Bengals get a pass-funnel Titans defense allowing a league-low 2.6 YPC but 7.7 YPA. Tennessee has ceded the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. Chase goes off for 100+ yards and two touchdowns this week. — Dalton Del Don
LaPorta not the only rookie TE you can trust
Sam LaPorta is the buzzy rookie tight end these days, and that's justified. He's a staple in fantasy lineups now. But as you're scouting the Thursday night game, don't miss out on Luke Musgrave. The Packers have used Musgrave as a key piece all three games, resulting in snap rates of 75%, 88% and 86%. Last week Musgrave had new highs for targets (eight) and catches (six). His current pace hashes out to a 85-grab, 703-yard season, numbers we'd take from just about any veteran, let alone a rookie. Sure, the Packers get Christian Watson back Thursday, but Musgrave is a genie out of the bottle — he's too established to ignore now. And the Lions have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Wheels up. — Scott Pianowski
Nico Collins a Top-10 WR against Steelers
Collins bounces back in a big way in Week 4. The Steelers are a great defense but they have one clear vulnerability. They have been stung by outside receivers through three weeks. Brandon Aiyuk got them for 129 yard and two scores in Week 1, Amari Cooper reached 90 yards on seven catches, and Davante Adams erupted for 172 yards with two scores in Week 3 with Jakobi Meyers adding 85 yards on seven catches. That secondary is a weak spot. Collins remains the primary X-receiver on the Texans and he’s paired with a quarterback in C.J. Stroud who leads the NFL in passing yards between 10 and 19 yards this season. That intermediate area is where Collins runs most of his routes. Rookie Tank Dell stole the headlines last week — by the way, he’s a great play in this matchup too — but Collins can reach big heights once again in Week 4. — Matt Harmon
Miles Sanders a Top-5 RB this week
This offseason we were promised two things for Sanders. The first was more passing game usage and the second was a three-down workhorse role in the Panthers' offense. Through three weeks, we are seeing both of these promises come true.
Sanders has played 61% of the snaps this season. He’s averaged 19.7 opportunities per game and has played the majority of the passing downs. Sanders is quietly leading all RBs with 18 targets and he’s on pace for a career-high 102 targets.
His usage ranks top eight among all RBs. In Week 3, we saw Andy Dalton move the offense and take the easy checkdowns to Sanders. This week, Sanders faces the Vikings' No. 27-ranked run defense. He’s a must start and is currently projected for the third most running back points in my model. — Sal Vetri
Sam Howell worth streaming consideration
Sure, Commanders QB Sam Howell might be coming off a four-pick game against the Bills. Yes, he actually had negative fantasy points in some scoring formats. However, I'm here to say to my fellow quarterback streamers that he's in for a bounce-back performance against the Eagles. Prior to that brutal display, Howell had ranked as the QB11 and QB14 in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively.
Though Philadelphia has arguably the best defensive line in the league, the Eagles' weakness ahead of Week 4 lies in the secondary, where the team has been managing a number of injuries. Philly's ability to defend the run has forced opponents to pass on them, and these injuries in the secondary have yielded an average of 275 passing yards and 2.7 touchdowns per game. Ouch. Consider Howell a fine streamer against the Eagles, even in the brutal road environment at the Linc. — Kate Magdziuk
