Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleeper Picks
Week 15 had hits and misses on the sleeper page, like most weeks do. Curtis Samuel scored twice and easily beat his projection, and Nick Mullens did enough to justify Superflex love. Quentin Johnston was mostly ineffective, but at least he stole a garbage-time touchdown. Chig Okonkwo had a quiet game, and D'Onta Foreman couldn't crack the Browns' front seven, despite some juicy goal-line opportunities.
That's life in the sleeper streets. We hope your lineup for the fantasy semifinals is filled with stars and auto-starts, but if you need some overlooked guys, we have some for you.
TE Hunter Henry at Denver (28% rostered)
Henry took a few shots to the knee last week, and he didn't practice Wednesday. That's the only worry about his recommendation; he's been sizzling the last two weeks (10-106-3), charting as the TE3 against Pittsburgh and the TE4 against Kansas City. The Broncos offer the tastiest matchup yet as the worst defense against tight ends this year (no matter if you prefer old-school data or new-age data). The Patriots offense always has a capped upside, but Bailey Zappe is comfortable throwing to Henry in all situations, especially around the goal line.
QB Nick Mullens vs. Detroit (10% rostered)
Mullens had some hiccups in last week's overtime loss at Cincinnati. He took three sacks and threw two interceptions, and the Bengals probably left a few picks on the field. But Mullens also passed for 303 yards and two touchdowns, reminding us that any quarterback tied to head coach Kevin O'Connell and the deep Minnesota passing tree has a shot at success. The Lions rank fourth in run-defense DVOA but 16th in pass-defense DVOA; we call that a funnel. This game features a lofty total of 47 and is climate-controlled in the Minnesota dome. Mullens can challenge for 20 fantasy points again.
RB Justice Hill at San Francisco (16% rostered)
If nothing else, stash Hill onto your bench and see what happens. The Ravens lost Keaton Mitchell for the season, and Hill has always been the team's pass-protection and hurry-up back. Perhaps Baltimore will be chasing the game at San Francisco on Monday night, and it's also possible Baltimore will fall behind in Week 17 against Miami. Hill's ceiling is modest given the shape of Baltimore's offense — Lamar Jackson will always take some of the rushing production off the table, and Gus Edwards will maintain touchdown equity. But Hill is likely to see double-digit touches in one of these games, perhaps both. That makes him plausible as a sleeper.
WR Curtis Samuel at New York Jets (39% rostered)
We understand why Samuel's roster tag continues to lag; Terry McLaurin is the most dynamic receiver in Washington. But Samuel does most of his work in the slot, and he has a way of getting open on the quickly defined routes that Sam Howell seems to favor. Samuel actually had a touchdown catch from both of Washington's quarterbacks last week, and he's finished as the WR24, WR33 and WR12 the last three weeks. The Jets are a messy matchup, but Samuel has the safest path to targets among the Washington receivers.
WR Jameson Williams at Minnesota (22% rostered)
Williams didn't get into the end zone during last week's 42-17 romp over Denver, but his usage ticked up significantly for the first time. The seven targets were a career-high, and Williams also participated in 68% of the snaps, another new best. Minnesota is the easiest pass defense the Lions have seen in six weeks, which gives Williams a legitimate shot at a splash play this weekend.
D/ST Chicago Bears vs. Arizona (28% rostered)
I'll be rolling with this unit in a few of my semifinals, and you're invited to join me. The resurgent Bears defense has scored double-digit fantasy points in three straight games, and there's nothing scary about Kyler Murray right now — all of his efficiency metrics are below league average. Murray does have rushing chops and athleticism, of course, but often that leads to holding the ball too long and taking a sack — he's been dropped 14 times in five games. Throw in some frosty December weather, and I'm thinking the Bears defense can take control of this game.
