Fantasy Football Week 10 Start Sit Decisions: Geno Smith and Will Levis Rebound

Kyle Dvorchak breaks down his fantasy football starts and sits for Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season.

Quarterback

Start: Will Levis, Titans

Levis and the Titans get a supreme matchup with the Bucs this week. Tampa Bay has fallen to 26th in EPA per dropback and their opponents have recognized this weakness. The Bucs have faced the fourth-highest pass rate over expected this year. Even better for Levis is Tampa Bay’s injury report. They were without three corners in practice on Wednesday including two starters, Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean.

Start: Geno Smith, Seahawks

Smith has been on an aggressive downswing over his past four games, tossing four scores and six interceptions with another two lost fumbles. Smith hasn’t played his best football over the past month, but he has also faced one of the hardest schedules in the league. He got the No. 1, No. 2, and No. 12 defenses by EPA per dropback over that stretch. He threw two touchdowns and was only intercepted once while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt versus the Cardinals, his only easy matchup over the past four weeks. He gets a Washington defense that ranks 30th in EPA per dropback this week.

Sit: Deshaun Watson, Browns

It’s hard to trust Watson most weeks. He has one game over 7.0 net yards per attempt and opened the year with as many touchdowns as interceptions through two weeks. He looked better in Week 3 before injuring his shoulder. After a lengthy absence, he was solid in Week 9, tossing two scores with no picks. He might be back, but it has been a mixed bag for the former Texan. The spot we don’t want to buy into uncertainty is a road game against the No. 2 defense by EPA per dropback allowed in Baltimore.

The Browns have a hilariously low, 15.75 implied team total this week. The only team Vegas expects to score fewer points is the Tommy DeVito-led Giants.

Sit: Russell Wilson, Broncos

Wilson has successfully rebounded this year, but the Broncos are doing everything they can to avoid putting up fantasy numbers. They rank last in the NFL in plays per game because their defense can’t keep the other offense off the field. Denver also ranks 23rd in pass rate over expected. They get a Bills team that allows the fifth-fewest plays per game to opposing offenses in Week 10.

Running Back

Start: David Montgomery, Lions

When David Montgomery starts, we start him. It’s that simple. He ranks sixth in the NFL in touches per game and fifth in goal line carries. Not goal line carries per game. Despite missing three games and part of a fourth, he is near the top of the league in total usage near the end zone. Even with his role almost certain to be scaled down in his first game back in the lineup, Montgomery has RB2 usage as a floor.

Start: Jonathan Taylor, Colts

Taylor SZN has arrived. In Week 9, Taylor played on 75 percent of the Colts’ snaps and earned 62 percent of the team’s carries. He also ran a route on three-quarters of his team’s passing plays. Most importantly, he was the only Colts running back to see a carry inside the 5-yard line.

Sit: Kareem Hunt, Browns

With Jerome Ford off the injury report heading into Week 9, the Browns committed to him as their primary back with 25 touches on a 63 percent snap share. He earned over half of the team's carries and ran a route on more than 50 percent of Deshaun Watson's dropbacks. Hunt held onto the goal line role but not much else. In a game where Cleveland isn't likely to get near the end zone often, that role shouldn't result in many fantasy points.

Sit: Brian Robinson, Commanders

In winning efforts for Washington, Robinson has been a beast. In four victories, Robinson has averaged 16.3 carries for 60 yards and .75 touchdowns. That has been good for 16.7 half-PPR points per game. His fantasy output is nearly halved in losses.

The Commanders are 6.5-point underdogs on the road versus the Seahawks this week. Seattle ranks 10th in EPA per rush attempt allowed.

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Wide Receiver

Start: Demario Douglas, Patriots

Douglas is the last man standing in a decimated receiving room for the Patriots. Kendrick Bourne went down with a season-ending injury a few weeks ago and DeVante Parker is once again out because of a concussion. Douglas has run a route on 81 percent of his team’s dropbacks over the past three weeks with a 19 percent target share. He has also been moving around the formation, meaning he won’t be the receiver subbed out for 12-personnel looks.

Start: Brandin Cooks, Cowboys

The Cowboys have a 28-point implied team total this week. That is over a point higher than any other team. Cooks’ route rate of 87 percent in Week 9 was tied for a season-high. Dallas also gave up on Michael Gallup, giving nearly half of his reps to Jalen Tolbert. The Giants are expected to be without their top corner, Adoree’ Jackson, this week. All of this points to Cooks being his team's clear WR2 in a spot where they should score points in droves.

Sit: Christian Watson, Packers

Watson entered Week 9 struggling to make the most of his strong role as Green Bay’s top air yards earner and the team’s primary end zone receiver. Though Watson is not doing anything with that role may have been frustrating, seeing all of a team’s high-leverage looks is a good problem to have. The bad news is that the problem disappeared in Week 9, and not for the better. His target share fell to eight percent, the lowest mark of his season.

Week 10 isn't a great time for the Packers to draw up long-developing deep throws to Watson either. Jordan Love ranks 26th in Pro Football Focus passing grade under pressure and is about to face PFF's No. 6 pass-rush unit.

Sit: Jahan Dotson, Commanders

Dotson has seen an uptick in volume in recent weeks, but that has coincided with Curtis Samuel missing plenty of snaps and then an entire game with a toe injury. Samuel ran a route on 37 percent of Sam Howell’s dropbacks in Weeks 7 and 8 before missing Week 9. Unsurprisingly, Dotson’s target share went from 14 percent heading into Week 7 to 19 percent over the next three games. His end zone target share and targets per route run also rose. Samuel looks likely to return this week, putting Dotson on the backburner once again.

Tight End

Start: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys

Ferguson is top-10 in targets per route run, air yards share, and target share among tight ends this year. Most importantly, he leads all tight ends with an absurd, 42 percent end zone target share. In a game where the Cowboys should be able to score at will, Ferguson’s odds of finding paydirt are high.

Start: Taysom Hill, Saints

Hill is 12th in the NFL in red zone carries. He also has four targets plus two pass attempts in the red zone. Just over 35 percent of his opportunities have come in the red zone this year. Hill is a touchdown specialist and he is one of the best in the business at this job.

Sit: Kyle Pitts, Falcons

It’s looking like it's over for Kyle Pitts. In the first five games of the year, his route rate sat at 84 percent and he had earned 40 percent of his team’s air yards. Those numbers have fallen to 66 percent and 19 percent in his past four games. Pitts isn’t seeing a full complement of routes and his downfield usage has disappeared. On a run-first offense, his days as a TE 1 appear to be over.

Sit: Cade Otton, Bucs

Otton scored a pair of touchdowns on nine targets in Week 9 but hadn’t shown any ability to draw targets before the Bucs’ shootout with the Texans. He has been targeted on 14 percent of his routes and earned just his second end zone target of the year last week. Otton isn’t a bad stash in deeper leagues, but banking on him repeating even a fraction of his Week 9 production is a weak bet.