Fantasy Football Buy Low, Sell High Week 9: Ten Players to Trade This Week
The best part of the fantasy football season isn't the playoffs. It's not the draft, and it certainly isn't winning the championship. No, the best part about the fantasy football season is fleecing your friends in a trade so badly that the rest of the league either vetoes the trade proving your superiority or roasts the friend you traded with into them never wanting to trade with you again.
Here's who to target if you're in the market to buy players off a bad week or if you're looking to sell your own players coming off a great performance.
To bench or not to bench: Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: 15 players to start or sit in Week 9
Buy low on these fantasy football players in Week 9:
Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones:
Earlier this week, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur told reporters that Aaron Jones was not near 100% "by any stretch." All year, fantasy managers have waited on Aaron Jones to be healthy and to repeat his efforts from Week 1 where Jones outscored all other running backs with 26.7. Yet, since Week 7, he's had no injury designation and has failed to score even double digit fantasy points. What gives?
Fantasy managers are undoubtedly getting sick of Aaron Jones, and that's where you can swoop in. It's obvious that Jones is still the most talented player in Green Bay's backfield. He may not have been healthy each of the past two weeks but he is still averaging over 4.0 yards a carry in that span. AJ Dillon has had the opportunity to be a workhorse back with Jones out and has only managed 4.0 yards per carry in one game. In fact, he's only averaged more than three yards a carry in three games all year.
The Green Bay offense is bad right now, and owners probably don't want any part of that team in its current state. When Aaron Jones gets back to full health though, he will be the best part of that team, maybe the only good part. And they will have to feed him if they want any sort of success.
Arizona Cardinals TE Zach Ertz:
An aging tight end that just went on the IR. The value is so incredibly low right now, it's practically a tripping hazard in hell. Obviously, if you're in a position where you need a tight end, Ertz isn't somebody you want on your roster, but if you have a serviceable option right now like Jonnu Smith, Dalton Kincaid, or Jake Ferguson, Ertz could be worth a look.
Sure, Ertz will be out the next four weeks at least, but the Cardinals' quarterbacks have shown that they like throwing to their tight ends. Ertz received at least eight targets in three of his seven games. Trey McBride received 14 targets in his lone game as the starter. Kyler Murray is returning soon and he has shown a connection with Ertz in the past. The duo have played 17 games together; that's a full season's worth of games. 87 catches, 807 yards, five touchdowns.
That's 197.7 points for a full season or 11.6 points per game. Last year, that would have ranked Ertz fifth among tight ends on a per-game basis and fourth on a total points basis. If you have an open IR slot or are already set for the playoffs with a weak tight end, Ertz is definitely worth looking at. The only worry is that McBride really impresses during the next three weeks as well and starts stealing some of Ertz's snaps. That's a legitimate concern, but at Ertz's current value, it's worth trading the bottom of your bench away for him.
Arizona Cardinals WR Marquise Brown:
An even higher ceiling on the Arizona Cardinals offense, Hollywood Brown has struggled the last three weeks, recording just 7.4, 7.9, and 15.3 respectively in each of those games, and he needed a touchdown to get to double digits in that last one. Still, despite these low numbers, Brown is the only viable outside threat on this offense and with the return of Kyler Murray imminent, that outside threat is going to see much better targets than he's been getting.
On the year, Brown ranks 85th in target quality rating and 89th in catchable target rate. That's sure to improve with Murray under center. Furthermore, we've seen flashes of a dynamic pairing in the past when Murray and Brown have been on the field together. In the ten full games Murray and Brown played together last year, Brown averaged seven receptions, 75.3 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game. That's about 17 points per game. Brown scored fewer than ten points in just one of those games and that came in Week 12 with both Murray and Brown coming back from injury. He also received eight or more targets in all but one game. Marquise Brown isn't just a buy-low candidate. He's a league winner. Call me Men's Warehouse, because you're going to like the way he looks. I guarantee it!
Los Angeles Chargers WR Quentin Johnston:
For a first-round rookie, Quentin Johnston has been about as disappointing as Matt Canada's Steelers' offense this year. 12 receptions, 114 yards, no touchdowns on the season. Yikes! We always knew he would be an injury-dependent receiver. Mike Williams went down for the year early. Still, Johnston didn't receive many looks. Now, in Week 8, Josh Palmer came into the game with an injury designation, suffered an injury in the middle of the game, and returned later. To all Johnston owners, Palmer's return was unfortunate, but for people looking to buy Johnston, this was perfect.
Despite Palmer's return, Palmer had only four targets, his fewest since Week 1. Sure, Palmer played, but that injury was nagging and it could be nagging for a while. In the singular game we've now seen where Johnston had snaps as the team's WR2, he had six targets and 50 receiving yards. The fact that Palmer returned and finished the game against Chicago is reason for Johnston owners to worry, but we've seen players get hurt, finish the game, and then get sent to the IR already this year (De'Von Achane), and this could very well be another one of those situations.
New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave:
Chris Olave is still a very valuable receiver with a high target share. He'll certainly cost you a pretty penny, just not as pretty as it used to be. More weeks than not, Olave still receives the most targets of any wide receiver on the team, but he's not getting the points we expect him to.
Part of that has to do with the return of Alvin Kamara. Since Kamara's return in Week 4, Olave has not eclipsed 100 yards through the air, has had two games with two or fewer receptions, and is averaging nine targets a game, more than one fewer targets than Kamara was receiving in Weeks 1-3.
That said...nine targets is still a whole heck of a lot. We all know Olave is talented and his touchdown percentage should increase. He's been very unlucky in that department. He's received seven red zone targets this season, which ranks 20th among wide receivers, but just one touchdown? That's sure to change.
According to Player Profiler, Olave ranks 33rd in fantasy points per game this year (12.7), but ranks 10th in expected fantasy points per game (20.7). In the world of fantasy, volume is king, and Olave has received at least nine targets in three straight contests. He's got to get right eventually.
Bargain hunting: Fantasy football waiver wire Week 9: 7 underrated players to add to your lineup
Sell high on these fantasy football players in Week 9:
Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton:
Why would you want to sell a guy with a touchdown in three straight weeks? Because he's had a touchdown in three straight weeks and hasn't eclipsed 20 PPR fantasy points once. Sutton has become touchdown dependent. Without scoring, his upside is around 15 points right now and that's not what you want out of your WR2.
Sutton hasn't had more than six targets in a game since Week 3, and with each passing week, Denver head coach Sean Payton seems more and more inclined to lean on running back Javonte Williams, who has seen his rushing attempts increase from 10 to 15 to 27 every week since being inactive in Week 5. His snap share has also increased from 35 to 53 to 65 percent in that span.
Denver just beat the Kansas City Chiefs for the first time in nearly a decade and they did it by leaning on their rushing attack. They aren't suddenly going to swap to a pass-heavy offense after pulling off the biggest Broncos win since the 2015 Super Bowl, and that can only mean bad news for Sutton.
Dallas Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks:
Much like Sutton, Cooks has now reached the endzone in two straight games. GET RID OF HIM!
Despite those touchdowns, this was the first game since Week 1 where Cooks received more targets than fellow wideout Michael Gallup. This won't last long. Cooks is not the receiver he once was, and quarterback Dak Prescott's rapport with Gallup has been greater than his rapport with Cooks by a long shot.
Gallup is just two weeks removed from getting ten targets in a close game against the Chargers. The game against the Rams got out of hand quickly. Maybe that is what Cooks needs in order to have more targets than Gallup. Unfortunately, four of the Cowboys' next six games are going to be against divisional opponents, which are always closer than they should be. Of the remaining two games, one of them is against the 5-2 Seattle Seahawks. Yeah, Cooks isn't getting a similar game script to Sunday's game any time soon.
Minnesota Vikings WR K.J. Osborn:
When Justin Jefferson went down, everybody hoped rookie Jordan Addison and veteran KJ Osborn could blossom into solid fantasy starters until Jefferson returned. Well, only one of those happened. Addison has been great in Jefferson's absence. Osborn just put up his first game with double digit fantasy points since Week 3.
Yes, it was a great performance, good for 17.9 PPR fantasy points, but it likely won't hold up. Never mind the fact that Minnesota is now .500 and looking to potentially sneak into the playoffs, Justin Jefferson will be coming back somewhat soon, and quarterback Kirk Cousins is now done for the year meaning Minnesota will likely lean on the run game and Osborn's target quality will decrease. Forget all of that. Just remember that when Osborn was put in a position to be the Vikings' WR2, it still took him three weeks to record double-digit fantasy points. If anyone still believes he holds any value, trade him.
Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris:
Consecutive double-digit point performances? That's all I need to see. He's on the block once again. Najee Harris may be putting up decent RB2 numbers for the first time all year, but these numbers are a facade, inflated by season-high targets and a touchdown last week. Jaylen Warren is still the pass-catching back in Pittsburgh. Najee Harris is still a slow, ineffective runner, and sure, maybe his target share will continue to increase as we saw in Week 8, but I'd be more willing to put this performance in the fluke category.
At best, Harris' five targets in Week 8 is what he gets every week from now on. Jaylen Warren has done that four times now. Maybe the absence of Pat Freiermuth means more short-yardage looks toward Harris these next few weeks, but that's only temporary. Warren's target share is unaffected by Freiermuth's presence.
Harris is not the running back to own in Pittsburgh. That is still Warren, and it will be Warren until something changes drastically. If you can flip Harris for someone like Aaron Jones, do it in a heartbeat.
Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis:
This one is somewhat dependent on who has Kirk Cousins in your league. With Minnesota's quarterback out for the season, his owner will likely be scrambling on the waiver wire to find a replacement, especially if he doesn't have a backup on his roster already. Will Levis be great? It's too early to tell, and while you might be inclined to hold onto him in the hopes that his dominant performance from Week 8 lingers into the rest of the season, it probably won't.
Tennessee's upcoming schedule includes the Steelers, Bucs, and Jaguars, three very good defenses against opposing quarterbacks in fantasy. Levis likely won't perform up to his expectations in any of those games.
Three weeks of subpar performance would likely be enough to worry whoever owns Levis. That's when you need to pick him up. Trade for him after Week 11. His schedule from that point on is as follows:
v. Carolina
v. Indianapolis
@ Miami
v. Houston
v. Seattle
@ Houston
Not only will Levis be at home for four of the final six games, but four of those games are good matchups for fantasy quarterbacks. Trade him now, get him back later. Prey on the weakness of people looking to replace Cousins, and then get Levis back when his value has dropped. That's the mark of a great GM. Happy trading!
Look ahead: NFL Week 9 schedule: What to know about betting odds, lines, byes
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fantasy football week 9: 5 trade targets to buy low and 5 to sell high
