Fantasy Fallout of Bears Hiring Shane Waldron as OC

Pete Carroll's departure from Seattle earlier this month suddenly made offensive coordinator an available name during this coaching cycle. A disciple of Sean McVay who also worked with the Shanahan's during their time in Washington, Waldron's first crack at play-calling was by all accounts during his three seasons in Seattle.

During his time with the Seahawks, Waldron's offense never ranked lower than 17th in points scored and ranked as high as ninth in 2022 at 23.9 points per game. During that same span, the Bears had only one top-20 offense.

At the time of his hiring, there was a belief the Seahawks were hiring Waldron to establish the run. Instead, Seattle quietly became one of the more pass-heavy teams in the league. Below is a look at some of their passing numbers during his three-year tenure.

• Neutral Pass rate — 59 percent (7th)

• Adjusted Yards Per Attempt — 7.1 (6th)

• Early-Down Pass Rate — 54.8 (10th)

• Pass Rate Over Expected — 1.0 percent (7th)

• EPA per dropback — 0.094 (10th)

The Seahawks have also had plenty of fantasy-relevant players under Waldron. Below is a table that shows where his top quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end ranked in PPR leagues over the last three years.

Waldron's offensive philosophy and success have been a direct contrast to what we've seen from the Bears, who had a negative six percent PROE from 2021 through 2023 and a neutral pass rate of 49 percent — ranked dead last in the league.

With some exciting pieces already in place in Chicago and a No. 1 overall pick that could yield one of the top quarterback prospects in recent memories, Waldron has a chance to turn the Bears into one of the more fantasy-friendly offenses in 2024.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Quarterbacks

The quarterback position is tricky for the Bears, who could head for Splitsville with 2021's No. 11 overall pick, Justin Fields. For now, we'll operate as if Fields is Chicago's QB1.

Fields has shown plenty of fantasy upside during his three seasons in the league, finishing as the QB6 in fantasy points per game in 2022 and the QB14 last season. Fields' 0.68 fantasy points per attempt rank sixth amongst 62 qualified quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts since 2021.

With that said, Fields has seen a significant portion of his fantasy production come on the ground. Only 58.6 percent of his fantasy points have come on passes — ranked dead last of that same group of 62. Lamar Jackson, also known for his run-heavy ways, has seen 67.5 percent of his fantasy points come through the air. Fields' negative 58.6 fantasy points over expected on pass plays is the 10th worst amongst qualified quarterbacks.

Fields has struggled at times as a passer, carrying a humble 61.1 PFF passing grade for his career. His 67.1 passing grade in 2023 set a new season-high, but he still ranked 25th amongst quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. His 74 percent catchable pass rate and 63 percent on-target rate also ranked near the bottom of the RotoViz Advanced Stats Explorer.

Back-to-back four-touchdown games from Fields in Weeks 4 and 5 were encouraging signs from the third-year signal-caller, but he threw for only five touchdowns in his final eight games and averaged only 18.5 fantasy points per game (QB21).

A true Konami Code QB, Fields has high-end QB1 upside as long as he remains a starter in the league. He's steadily improved his completion percentage and adjusted completion percentage in every season, but that may not be enough for the team holding the No. 1 overall pick — especially with Waldron now calling the plays. From a fantasy perspective, Fields’ best chance at fantasy success in 2024, as Denny Carter and Pat Daugherty pointed out, might be with a new team.

Running Backs

As I showed in the table at the beginning of the article, Waldron had a top-24 fantasy running back in two of his three seasons with the Seahawks. He's benefitted from having Kenneth Walker during each of the last two seasons, but how the Seahawks have deployed their backs is arguably more important than the fantasy points they're scoring.

During his three years in Seattle, Waldron never had a running back finish with an opportunity share below 30 percent.

While Waldron has shown a propensity to feed a No. 1 back, receiving opportunities have been hard to come by. The Seahawks' 237 running back targets under Waldron are the third-fewest of any team in the league, and they never had a back finish higher than 20th in routes run in any season.

Some of this could be due to personnel, as Walker caught only 19 passes in 33 collegiate games, but Walker has proven to be a capable receiver over two seasons, dropping just three of his 67 career targets.

Waldron would be wise to utilize his running backs in the passing game in Chicago — especially Roschon Johnson. Johnson caught 34-of-42 targets last season for 209 yards and brought a productive college receiving profile to the league as a rookie. During his time at Texas, Johnson caught 56 passes in four seasons behind No. 8 overall pick Bijan Robinson. He was Chicago's preferred pass-catching back in 2023, leading them in both passing down snaps (270) and routes run (189).

On the flip side, there's also cause for optimism if Khalil Herbert emerges as the Bears' top back. Herbert, who enters 2024 in a contract year, has been one of the league's most efficient running backs when given the opportunity. Amongst 92 qualified running backs since 2021, Herbert ranks 11th in YPC (4.9), 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.27), 17th in YCO/ATT (3.22), and 19th in explosive run rate (12.5 percent).

Herbert has never had an opportunity share above 24 percent in his three seasons, but he's been long due for a lead role. We have a long way to go before we can confidently bank on Herbert in 2024, but if he avoids any significant competition via the draft and free agency, it could be wheels up for the fourth year back.

Wide Receivers

The duo of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have been a staple in Seattle since 2019. In their three years under Waldron, here is how the two fared in fantasy points per game.

Lockett and Metcalf have been valuable assets during Waldron's tenure and have seen plenty of volume over that span. Since 2021, Metcalf ranks 15th amongst receivers in expected fantasy points (662.1), with Lockett only a few spots behind at 25th (570.7). Lockett's 114.4 FPOE is good for ninth-most over that span, while Metcalf, who has been less efficient, still ranks 32nd with 40.4 FPOE.

Both Lockett and Metcalf have seen 100-plus targets in the last three seasons, with 107 targets being the fewest either has seen during that time.

Waldron now gets a wide receiver fresh off a career year in D.J. Moore, who posted highs in targets (138), receptions (96), yards (1,364), and touchdowns (8) while finishing as the WR9 in fantasy points per game (17.2) — also a career-high. One of the best young prospects when he entered the league in 2018, Moore will only be 27 at the start of next season. He ranked in the top 15 in both YAC/REC (5.7) and YPRR (2.31) and was 26th in YPR (14.2).

The Bears will need an upgrade at WR2. Darnell Mooney will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason, but he also hasn't surpassed 493 yards in his last two years. Mooney went for 81-1055-4 in his second season as a pro but was funneled 140 targets that season — tied for 10th most amongst receivers with Jaylen Waddle. As far as efficiency is concerned, Mooney has never been "that guy," averaging 4.8 YAC/REC and 1.35 YPRR for his career.

Waldron has been praised in recent years for his offensive creativity. Former Rotoworlder and current fantasy analyst at Underdog Fantasy, Josh Norris, sat down with Colt McCoy earlier this year to highlight Waldron’s abilities as a play-caller. His ability to scheme players open for his quarterback is not only highlighted by Norris and McCoy but also by ESPN Analytics, which takes an in-depth look at wide receiver data via player tracking. From 2021 to 2023, both Metcalf and Lockett ranked in the top 20 in "Open Rating," with Lockett ranking sixth amongst qualified receivers in said category over that span.

Moore should be a safe bet to flirt with a high-end WR1 season under Waldron, but a high-end WR2 opposite him could also be on the radar for a top-24 season.

Tight Ends

This is where things get a little concerning. The Seahawks never had a viable fantasy option at tight end under Waldron, but you could argue the likes of Gerald Everett and Noah Fant gave him little to work with. Over the last three years, the Seahawks have targeted their tight ends 332 times (6.5 tgts/gm) — ranking 15th in the league.

That said, Fant's 63 targets in 2022 are the most any Seahawks tight end has seen during that time. Cole Kmet topped out at 91 targets in 2021 and 2023 and saw 70 targets in 2022. He was targeted on 21.5 percent of his routes last season, setting a new season high, and subsequently finished as the overall TE8 in fantasy points per game (10.7).

Despite his high target volume, Kmet has never dominated in route participation, which is concerning because the same can be said of Seahawks tight ends under Waldron.

Everett's 86 percent route participation in 2021 ranked the highest of any qualified Seahawks tight end, while Kmet has never had a route participation rate higher than 83.5 percent.

A lack of offensive firepower in Chicago may have led to Kmet drawing targets despite his limited routes, but as mentioned earlier, the Bears need to upgrade their weaponry. With the Bears having more than $45 million in available cap space next season, there are multiple ways for them to upgrade at receiver, which could result in lost volume for Kmet.

Kmet could be a risky bet in fantasy drafts this offseason, depending on where his ADP lands amongst fellow tight ends.