Fantasy Update: New car, Joe Gibbs Racing still looks good at Richmond

The more things change, the more they stay the same. For the first time on a points-paying weekend, the Next Gen car turned laps on a short track. And while Ryan Blaney will start from the pole position for the second consecutive week, Joe Gibbs Racing still looked solid at a track it has owned for years. The Stewart-Haas Racing Fords didn‘t look too shabby, either, taking three of the top 10 spots in qualifying.

MORE: Full Richmond Cup lineup | Best photos from the “Action Track”

Dustin Albino‘s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Martin Truex Jr.
Starter 2: Christopher Bell
Starter 3: Kyle Busch
Starter 4: Aric Almirola
Starter 5: Kevin Harvick
Garage pick: Erik Jones

NEXT IN LINE: Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, William Byron.

RELATED: Fantasy Fastlane: Expect a strong JGR showing at Richmond | Set your lineups now!

RISING: Historically, Ryan Blaney has been, self-admittedly, terrible at Richmond. In 11 Cup starts at the track, he has just one top 10, that being a 10th-place outing last fall. The No. 12 Ford was among the quickest cars on single-lap, five-lap and 10-lap averages on Saturday, however. Even with all that positive mojo, starting Blaney at Richmond would be bold.

Kevin Harvick is riding a 49-race winless streak and hasn‘t won a stage since the second Dover race in 2020, but Saturday was the best the No. 4 car has looked this season. In addition, the 2014 Cup champion is a three-time winner at Richmond. If you want even more reason to look at Harvick, his teammate Chase Briscoe won at 1-mile Phoenix, the series‘ last race at a track with a similar style to Richmond‘s 0.75-mile layout.

Entering the 2022 season, expectations were neutral for Erik Jones‘ No. 43 team. But his Petty GMS Motorsports team has been quick more times than not this year, and that continued in practice and qualifying with Jones starting fifth on Sunday. While it might not be necessary to put him in your lineup yet, the option of choosing the No. 43 car by the end of the second stage could be valuable.

FALLING: Over the past five races at Richmond, Austin Dillon has been among the best drivers at Richmond with three top-10 efforts, leading a personal-best 55 laps in 2020. But the No. 3 Chevrolet was 27th in practice and will start 25th. This has been one of the biggest head-scratchers of the weekend.

For the first time in his career, Denny Hamlin hasn‘t recorded a top-10 finish through the opening six races of the season. While the No. 11 team has shown speed at times, it has been absent at others. With that, Richmond could be a fresh start for the Virginia native toward the 2022 season. But he was the lone JGR driver to miss the second round of qualifying.

FEATURED MATCHUPS: Kyle Busch vs. Alex Bowman: Over the last year, the defending race-winner Bowman has a tendency of being in the right place at the right time. But Kyle Busch is elite at Richmond, entering Sunday as a six-time winner at the track. The No. 18 Toyota was sporty in practice and qualified third; this could be his breakthrough race of the year.

Ross Chastain vs. Tyler Reddick: Momentum, what a beautiful thing. The advantage after practice and qualifying goes to Chastain, turning the quickest lap during Group B’s qualifying session. It‘s hard to believe Chastain‘s success will stop at Richmond, as he’s entering the week with four consecutive top-three finishes.

Martin Truex Jr. vs. Kyle Larson: Typically, this would be an even matchup. However, Richmond has been Truex‘s playground over the past six years, winning three of the past five races. The No. 19 Toyota made it to the second round of qualifying for the first time this season on Saturday. Meanwhile, Larson will take the green from 21st.

Denny Hamlin vs. Joey Logano: Based on both drivers’ past accomplishments at Richmond, this is the hardest matchup of the weekend. Hamlin, though, has yet to get a grip on the Next Gen car, while Logano sits third in points. Even with the No. 22 car starting 11th and the No. 11 team starting 13th, the small advantage goes to Hamlin, who has eight top-five finishes in the last 10 race at his home track. Last year, Hamlin led more than half the laps between the two races last season (404 of 800).