Fantasy Baseball second-half predictions: Will Ronald Acuña Jr. join history?
With a few days to catch our breath, this is a great time to reflect on the details from the first half of the fantasy and real-life baseball seasons and look ahead to the stretch run. As we have seen in recent seasons, the fortunes of many players and teams will take a dramatic turn once play begins after the All-Star break.
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For example, at this point in the 2022 season, Josh Hader led the majors in saves (he earned nine saves in the second half), and Julio Rodríguez sat third in baseball in steals (he stole four bases after the All-Star break). With the idea of dramatic changes in mind, here are five bold predictions for the coming months.
Ronald Acuña Jr. posts the highest steals total in 35 years
Acuña is on the verge of a remarkable statistical season, and he knows it. While the logical move will be to slow his running game, with the Braves having a significant division lead, the outfielder will pivot in the opposite direction and swipe bags at an even higher rate down the stretch. Great players know when they are in position to accomplish a rare feat, which is the case with Acuña right now. Sure, the 25-year-old could post impressive swipes totals for several years, but so many things can get in the way, such as the injuries that he has already dealt with in his career.
Acuña will take a run at the history books and collect the highest total of stolen bases since Rickey Henderson swiped 93 bags in 1988, topping the more recent total of 78, achieved by Marquis Grissom in 1992 and José Reyes in 2007. Add more than 35 homers, 140 runs, 100 RBI and an elite batting average, and Acuña will be the no-doubt No. 1 overall pick in every 2024 draft.
Joe Ryan wins the AL ERA crown
I was going to pick Sonny Gray for this paragraph, but that doesn’t feel like a bold prediction given that he sits seventh in the AL in ERA. Ryan is a gutsier selection, as he will likely need to lower his ERA by a full run in order to take the title. The right-hander has been excellent this year, posting a 24.7% K-BB ratio and a 2.76 xERA. He and his rotation mates are well-positioned to take their game to another level in the second half, as the Twins have an extremely favorable schedule. Minnesota’s remaining opponents in July are the A’s, White Sox, Mariners and Royals.
The August slate isn’t that much more difficult, and Minny’s September schedule includes plenty of divisional matchups consisting of four teams who are in the bottom five in team OPS. The guess here is that the Twins will have locked up the division before resting Ryan for a season-ending series at Coors Field.
No postseason baseball in the Big Apple
Although the Yankees are currently just one game out of a postseason spot, I would agree with anyone who says this isn’t much of a bold prediction. Still, the Bronx Bombers have been to the postseason the previous six seasons, and with their financial resources and strong fan base, one would assume that they will do what is necessary to keep their streak going.
Overall, I just don’t believe in their offensive group, and they will need more than one big trade to change their fortunes. From a fantasy perspective, I would be wary of adding Yankees hitters in the coming weeks, as they rank 27th in baseball in OPS since the beginning of June.
Of course, the other half of this bold prediction is the easy part. The sub-.500 Mets have already lost momentum from their early July hot streak and will fall short of the postseason, despite having the highest payroll in baseball.
The Blue Jays find their groove
The numbers don’t line up for Toronto’s offense. The club sits 13th in runs scored, but their advanced metrics, such as wRC+ (eighth), show that they should be a more productive offensive group. According to Statcast, six of the team’s regulars have an xwOBA higher than their wOBA, highlighted by lineup centerpiece Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has one of the biggest gaps of any player in baseball.
Situational hitting has been a big problem thus far, as the club ranks eighth in baseball in OPS with the bases empty but 24th with runners in scoring position. Fantasy managers who stick with some underwhelming Toronto players will be rewarded for the remainder of the summer when the club ranks among the top 10 in runs scored and pushes for a postseason berth.
Eli Morgan leads the Guardians in second-half saves
In terms of boldness, I saved my best for last. Something isn’t quite right with superstar closer Emmanuel Clase this season. His velocity is down, and he has blown seven saves despite not having had bad luck with his BABIP or HR/FB rate. I have Clase rostered in some important leagues, so I hope I’m wrong on this one. But my bold prediction is that an injury pops up to explain the recent struggles, and Clase doesn’t finish the season as the Guardians closer. We saw with Josh Hader and Trevor Rogers last year that closers can sometimes lose their effectiveness in a hurry.
