Fantasy baseball hitters with two-strike swing changes
Since Statcast unveiled its new bat tracking data, we've had plenty of articles and discussions about bat speed, swing length, blast rate, and many other topics. We've covered plenty of those here at Rotoworld, with James Schiano looking at Blast Rate, Matthew Pouliot digging into Squared Up Rate, and me looking into bat speed and swing length, so I encourage you to check out those articles.
Today, I want to look at one final thing, which is two-strike swing changes. Anybody who has played baseball has likely been told to choke up with two strikes. The idea behind that old advice is for the hitter to shorten their swing and focus on just making contact. To protect the plate. Well, there are certainly MLB hitters who do the same thing. Cody Bellinger was a major topic of discussion last season when it became clear that he was changing his approach with two strikes to focus more on contact and less on driving the ball with authority. He also enjoyed a career season.
So now that we have this Statcast data and can toggle for specific counts, I decided to look at whose swing gets shorter in a two-strike count. I looked at all hitter swing lengths in non-two-strike counts and then sorted by just two-strike counts to find the difference. The immediate results are that we find the hitters who shorten their swing the most with two strikes when compared to their swing when they're ahead or even in the count. This could be players who are trying to change their approach to make contact with two strikes instead of doing damage.
Now, there is a very important caveat. Swing lengths change based on pitch location. A swing is naturally shorter when it's up in the zone, but swings get longer on pitches lower in the zone or away because the bat needs to travel farther to make contact. So there may be some hitters who TRY to shorten up with two strikes, but who often get pitched low or away (or both) with two strikes so their swings may show up as being longer. As a result, we may naturally miss some hitters who do have a unique two-strike approach but don't pop here because of how they're pitched.
Still, I thought it was a fun exercise to see which hitters appeared below and how it might impact our view of them for fantasy baseball.
Shorter Two Strike Swings (11- 20)
Brendan Donovan and Andrés Giménez being on here makes sense given their reputations as contact hitters. Donovan has just a 13% strikeout rate and a sub-13% Putaway rate, which means his two-strike counts result in strikeouts less than 13% of the time. The MLB average is 19.2%. Giménez has an even better 11.5% Putaway rate. Donovan is also 20th in baseball in squared-up rate per two-strike swings, which means he does an elite job of hitting the sweet spot on the bat when he swings with two strikes. Giménez is just 113th, so he's making a lot of contact in two-strike counts, but the contact is not as high a quality as Donovan's. Given his x-stats and his approach, I think we'll see a big batting average boost for Donovan soon.
Colton Cowser is on here at number 18, which is interesting because he's had a bit of a strikeout rate both in the minors and at the MLB level right now. He does have a naturally short swing, which is something we really like to see, and shortening up for him doesn't seem like it's helping him. He has a near 26% chase rate in two-strike counts which is slightly worse than league average, so he doesn't have a glaring issue there. Swings naturally get longer as hitters swing at the bottom of the strike zone and outside part of the strike zone since they have more ground to cover, so Cowser having a short swing even with two strikes could suggest that he's being pitched up in the zone often.
Connor Wong has been off to a great start this year, hitting .354/.385/.531 with five home runs. While we have no year-over-year data to compare to, it seems pretty clear that Wong has been prioritizing contact this season. His strikeout rate is down to a career-low 19% and his zone contact is up almost 10% to 88%. He's seeing more pitches in the zone and taking advantage earlier in the count, which has led to a substantial drop in swinging strike rate (SwStr%). That has caused him to see less fewer two-strike counts, but when he's in them, his Putaway rate is just 19.5%, which is above league average but a huge improvement from what Wong did last year. The .350 batting average is not going to stay, but Wong's approach should lead to a substantial improvement on his .235 average from last year and even though his more contact-centric approach has led to fewer barrels, he's still hitting the ball in the air at the same exit velocity, so he should finish the season with 12-15 home runs as well. That's pushing one-catcher league value in deeper formats.
Shorter Two Strike Swings (1 - 10)
Ugh. Please don't make me think of Willson Contreras right now. The Cardinals catcher was on so many of my teams and having to move on from him in most places was really difficult for me. I'm not ready to talk about it. Please come back soon!
Abraham Toro has always been a solid contact hitter with a career 87% zone contact rate; however, he's taken things to another level this season. Toro seems to be using the whole field more, posting the second-highest Oppo% of his career. While he's also hitting the ball in the air more, he's making use of his spacious home park to drive the ball in the gaps. He's also chasing out of the zone less and swinging more overall as he hunts pitches in the zone, which has led to an 81% contact rate and 90% zone contact rate. Both his SwStr% and Putaway rate are above league average so the high batting average doesn't seem overly flukey. I think he'll probably settle around .270 but that holds value for somebody who is leading off and also posting the highest exit velocity and max EV of his career. Toro is striking the ball well now with his new approach, and I think he should maintain deep-league value.
Wyatt Langford is an interesting case because he seemed to be a fantasy disappointment before his injury, hitting just .224 with one home run and one steal in 31 games. However, there are a few things that stand out for the rookie and are highlighted by his presence on this list. For starters, an 85% zone contact rate and 22.5% strikeout rate are solid for a 22-year-old in his first taste of MLB action. He's chasing out of the zone at a better-than-league-average rate and posted just an 8.4% SwStr% and 16% Putaway rate which are both well above league average. All of that bodes well for his ability to handle MLB pitching, but his 20% called strike rate is indicative of an approach that is far too passive. (Interestingly, it's the same problem that his teammate Evan Carter has). Langford didn't show great exit velocity on flyballs and live drives in his 31 games, but I think that has more to do with his approach (and the expanded strike zone he's faced) than anything else. This approach has me bullish on Langford and if he was dropped in redraft leagues, I'd be looking to scoop him up as he gets closer to a return.
We know that Ty France went to Driveline to add more power to his swing, but the new approach has led to a boost in strikeout rate without much power to show for it so far. Now, he is hitting the ball harder in the air, but he's not actually hitting it in the air much more often so the home runs haven't come. Not only has France struck out more, but he's striking out more in two-strike counts, so even with a shorter swing, he's not making as much two-strike contact as he used to. Still, France is 25th in baseball in squared-up rate on his two-strike swings and he's sixth in baseball in squaring up the ball when he does make contact on those two-strike swings. If the home runs start to come, you won't care about this added swing-and-miss because it's not egregious, but the home runs need to come.
Interestingly, Gavin Sheets is 16th in baseball in two-strike squared-up rate, right around some top-tier contact hitters like Nico Hoerner, Mookie Betts, and Trea Turner. Despite being a corner infielder, Sheets hasn't been a huge power hitter in the majors and has a career 20% strikeout rate. This season, he's taken that to another level with a 17% strikeout rate and a 14.5% Putaway rate. Considering he's pairing that with his best barrel rate since 2020 and a career-high 41% Ideal Contact Rate, Sheets is firmly on the deep league radar.
