Fantasy Baseball: Are starting pitchers in trouble this season?
With nearly two weeks of data under his belt, fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don shares some observations everyone should know.
• Home runs (and walks) are way up early this season, while spin rate is down. Starting pitchers had a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP last April but have a 4.67 ERA and 1.38 WHIP 10 days into this season. Whether that's due to new rules or a different baseball being used in 2023, early returns strongly suggest that offense is going to rise significantly this season.
• Run scoring has been up despite the Blue Jays not playing their first home game until Tuesday; Toronto’s new dimensions could lead to a launching pad. Some might call one game a “small sample,” but six bombs ( Kevin Kiermaier robbed a potential seventh) in Tuesday’s game confirmed some priors. Matt Chapman’s incredible start at the plate (he leads all hitters in Barrels) has come mostly on the road.
• Emmanuel Clase currently sports a 5.57 FIP while displaying decreased velocity, but I’m buying if his fantasy manager is selling. He’s still averaging 98.0 mph with his fastball, and many pitchers take April to ramp up velocity.
More importantly, his peripherals (GB/FB, CSW) are better than in his previous two dominant seasons. Clase has already racked up three saves and a win despite crazy walk (6.00 BB/9) and HR/FB (50.0%) rates that will both regress a ton moving forward.
• Josh Lowe remains available in 95% of Yahoo leagues despite homering and stealing a base Tuesday. Go add Lowe, who has shown real improvement in plate discipline (14% K% compared to 33% last season).
• Logan Webb is a clear buy-low candidate in fantasy leagues. His three opponents — @NYY, @CWS, LAD — all ranked top-five in wRC+ entering Tuesday’s action. Webb’s 6.35 ERA is accompanied by a 22:3 K:BB ratio and a 2.61 xFIP.
Webb has already allowed four homers after serving up just 11 in nearly 200 innings last season, but despite the difficult schedule, he ranks top-10 in CSW and K% among starters this year.
• Mitch Keller has also suffered from a difficult schedule (@Cin, @Bos, Hou) and poor luck to open 2023 — including David Bednar costing him a win while blowing a save Tuesday. Keller has followed a dominant spring performance (20:1 K:BB) by jumping his K% to 29.3% (top-15 among starters) despite facing tough opponents and throwing in extreme hitter’s parks.
Pitching for the Pirates will likely hurt his chances of racking up wins, but Keller looks like a true breakout in 2023. He inexplicably remains available in 80% of Yahoo leagues.
• Injuries have hit hard early, with Michael Harris, Oneil Cruz, Corey Seager, Adam Duvall, Seth Brown, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jiménez, Brandon Woodruff, Justin Verlander, Max Fried, Robbie Ray, Zach Eflin and Andres Muñoz already hitting the injured list. More than 93% of the season has yet to be played.
Bonus long read of the week: The Gambler Who Beat Roulette
