F1 interest appears to be flattening after years of massive growth
There's evidence to suggest that Red Bull's complete dominance of the 2023 season is turning fans away
While Max Verstappen's dominance of the 2023 Formula 1 season has been fantastic for Red Bull Racing, there's evidence to suggest that it's not a hit with fans.
A Buzz Radar case study on the social media engagement around F1 has found a significant decline in interest this year.
According to three key metrics identified by the study — mentions, growth of key social accounts and total social reach — the first half of the 2023 season took a significant step back after two years of colossal growth.
There are mitigating factors that explain these numbers, as the 2021 season included the best championship battle in recent years — coming down to the final lap of the final race — and 2022 got off to an exciting start before Verstappen pulled away, but they are still grim.
While the social media landscape can't tell the complete story of fan sentiment, Buzz Radar's findings do line up with some trends in F1 ratings — at least in the United States. The Miami Grand Prix, for instance, experienced a 24% ratings dip on ABC in 2023 compared to its 2022 debut, and through the first 13 races of the season, ESPN saw average viewership drop from 1.3 million per race to 1.24 million.
By the end of 2022, ESPN averaged 1.21 million viewers, thanks to a late-season ratings slide, so you could characterize 2023 as slight growth overall. But another ratings decline seems likely now that Verstappen has clinched the world drivers' championship and Red Bull has clinched the constructors' championship.
Even if what we're seeing is more of a plateau, it has to be discouraging for F1 in the context of its growth the prior two seasons. According to Axios, F1 races on ESPN averaged 607K viewers per race in 2020, then saw that grow 54% to 949K in 2021 before jumping another 27.5% in 2022. Prior to 2021, the all-time record was 748K (1995).
It seems clear that the current state of affairs hurts the product's entertainment value in the eyes of some fans, making audience growth difficult. It's tough to predict when other teams will be able to change that dynamic by challenging Verstappen and the Adrian Newey-designed Red Bull. It could be as soon as 2024. Perhaps it will take until 2026, when F1 engine regulations change radically. Red Bull might be ahead of the pack even then.
There's no knowing precisely when Verstappen's vice grip over the top of the sport will loosen, but until it does, F1 might struggle to grow the way it looked like it was going to at the outset of the 2020s.
An intriguing backdrop to the story is the recent rumor that Apple might be interested in offering $2 billion per year for global broadcasting rights to F1. Apple has reportedly found great success with its MLS deal after its experimentation with MLB didn't exactly hit the ground running.
Landing F1 broadcast rights would be Apple's biggest play in the broadcasting rights space to date — and the tech giant will pay close attention to the climate around F1 before jumping in with two feet.
The company's interest wouldn't be in the immediate term. Apple couldn't get its hands on American broadcast rights until after ESPN's current deal expires following the 2025 season and wouldn't be able to lock in exclusive global rights until 2029. It's entirely possible — but far from guaranteed — that the climate around F1 will have changed significantly by the time any massive deal is being negotiated.
As is often the case, there are multiple ways to interpret the situation. You could say lack of viewership improvements and general interest dips in 2023 are a blip. After all, Verstappen is having a historically dominant season.
While there are plenty of storylines worth following in any given race, more casual fans are often interested in race and championship wins. If the Dutchman makes it impossible for his rivals to challenge him for either, it's reasonable to expect interest to wane. But the current situation isn't going to last forever.
F1 remains a sport with global appeal, the pipeline of fans coming in through Netflix's docuseries "Drive to Survive" is still growing, and there are factors that could put upward pressure on American interest in the years to come.
The Las Vegas Grand Prix is sure to be a spectacle no matter what the competitive situation — and if Michael Andretti is able to get his FIA-approved Cadillac team up and running, that could create a natural rooting interest for American fans more compelling than Haas-Ferrari.
On the other hand, 2023 has provided proof of concept that F1 isn't a rocket ship destined to grow exponentially simply based on its success with Netflix.
The biggest potential broadcasting partners — such as Apple — have the ability to weather the peaks and valleys, but it wasn't too long ago that it looked like it would be all peaks.
