What the experts are predicting: Notre Dame vs. USC

“The Trojans, who have not won in South Bend, Indiana, since 2011, come in undefeated but wobbly after three straight weeks of competitive games against second-tier Pac-12 teams. The defense is shaky again and Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams is facing more pressure than last year. At least they haven’t lost two of three like Notre Dame.”

“The likelihood that Sam Hartman bounces back from a three-interception outing in a big way against a struggling defense makes this pick worrisome, but I’m not sure how much gas Notre Dame still has in its tank overall. The Fighting Irish were riding on empty late in the win at Duke before failing to start the car at Louisville. And when the best player in college football is on the other sideline, you’re going to have to score just about every time you touch the football. USC stays unbeaten here, but it’s not going to last as the Trojans begin a multi-game gauntlet this weekend. … USC 34, Notre Dame 31.”

“These teams have a very similar power ranking if you look at some of the advance metrics, which is why Notre Dame gets the slight edge at home from oddsmakers. This matchup is rather simple in my mind: Which team’s weakness is good enough to take advantage of the other team’s weakness? USC’s is abominable on defense. Notre Dame, despite Sam Hartman, is a below-average passing attack. So which weakness steps up? I like Hartman to bounce back after a poor performance against Louisville. Plus, USC eventually is going to have to pay the piper for playing in so many close games. … Notre Dame 34, USC 31.”

“Charles White in 1979. Carson Palmer in 2002. Tim Brown in 1986 (setting the tone for 1987). Matt Leinart in 2004. Reggie Bush in 2005. Caleb Williams in 2022. This is the game where Heismans are won.

It’s the game that cemented my vote for Manti Te’o in 2012, and should’ve won it for Anthony Davis in 1974.

Hartman might be out of the mix at the moment, but one monster performance in a win could bring him right back. Or, Williams could end the drama for the greatest individual award in sports if he can come anywhere near the 82%, 232-yard, one touchdown, no pick, three rushing score day he had in last year’s 38-27 win.

Get ready for a whole lot of ebbs and flows as Notre Dame gets off to a hot start. Williams and the USC offense will be a bit off, the Irish lines will take over, the running game will rip off big plays, and the fans in Notre Dame Stadium will be losing their minds.

And that’s when the alarm will go off. Hartman – who didn’t throw a pick all year before throwing three against Louisville – will throw two in the second half, and then …

Boom, boom, boom. Williams and USC will strike quickly, efficiently, and all of a sudden it’ll take over late in the third. Notre Dame will have a few chances, but in the final minutes, Williams will scramble on two big third down plays to keep the clock moving on the way to pulling out a thriller.”

“Notre Dame’s offense has cooled off significantly since a torrid opening run against (mostly) low-level competition. Even as head coach Lincoln Riley attempts to quiet the concerns, USC’s defense is a vulnerable group. Given those two factors, it’s not shocking that ND is the betting favorite. But like everyone else so far, the Fighting Irish will fall short of containing Caleb Williams.”