ESPN matchup predictor on the Oklahoma Sooners 2023 season

College football is almost here. All the offseason talk will give way to seeing what these teams can do on the football field. The Oklahoma Sooners are a team with a lot to prove heading into the 2023 season.

And mostly to themselves. What they put on the field a year ago isn’t a good representation of what Oklahoma Football is about or what Brent Venables’ defense is about. And that’s the beauty of college football. What happened last year matters little as we look ahead.

Nobody expected TCU to go on a run to the national championship game. Nobody expected Baylor to fall back to the pack. And certainly, nobody expected Oklahoma to have their first losing season since 1998.

And that provides as much optimism as anything for the 2023 Oklahoma Sooners. Last year’s results don’t matter anymore. They have a chance to write a new chapter in one of the most storied programs in college football history.

ESPN’s matchup predictor, which runs thousands of simulations, is a believer in a return to Big 12 prominence in 2023. Let’s take a look at how they see the Sooners’ season playing out.

Sept. 2: Arkansas State (Norman)

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 95.4% (Down from 96.7%)

All-Time Series: 2-0

Projected running record: 1-0

Sept. 9: SMU Mustangs (Norman)

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 83.2% (Down from 86.3%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma 5-1-1

Projected running record: 2-0

Sept. 16: Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (Tulsa)

Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium (Tulsa)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 91.5% (Down from 93.8%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma 20-7-1

Projected running record: 3-0

Sept. 23: Cincinnati Bearcats (Cincinnati)

Nippert Stadium (Cincinnati)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 72.4% (Down from 75.5%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma 2-0

Projected running record: 4-0

Sept. 30: Iowa State Cyclones (Norman)

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 81.7% (Down from 84.7%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma 79-7-2

Projected running record: 5-0

Oct. 7: Texas Longhorns (Dallas)

Cotton Bowl (Dallas)

Predicted Winner: Texas

Sooners Win Probability: 37.2% (Up from 35.4%)

All-Time Series: Texas leads 63-50-5

Projected running record: 5-1

Oct. 14: Bye Week

The Oklahoma Sooners head into the bye week 5-1 and in a great spot to contend for the Big 12. If they can finish the season strong, they should earn a spot in Arlington.

Oct. 21: UCF Knights (Norman)

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 75.4% (Down from 78.6%)

All-Time Series: First Meeting between the two teams.

Projected running record: 6-1

Oct. 28: Kansas Jayhawks (Lawrence)

David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium (Lawrence)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 82.2% (Down from 85.4%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 80-27-6

Projected running record: 7-1

Nov. 4: BEDLAM - Oklahoma State (Stillwater)

Boone Pickens Stadium (Stillwater)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 67.8% (Down from 70%)

All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 91-19-7

Projected running record: 8-1

Nov. 11: West Virginia Mountaineers (Norman)

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 88.3% (Down from 90.9%)

All-Time Series: 11-3

Projected running record: 9-1

Nov. 18: BYU Cougars (Provo)

LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 78.7% (Down from 81.8%)

All-Time Series: BYU leads 2-0

Projected running record: 10-1

Nov. 24: TCU Horned Frogs (Norman)

Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 67.7% Down from (69.5%)

All-Time Series: 17-6

Projected running record: 11-1

Analysis

The ESPN Matchup predictor lost confidence in the Oklahoma Sooners from April in all but one game; The Red River Rivalry. The Sooners win probability dropped in every game but their October 7 meeting against the Texas Longhorns, where they gained win probability confidence.

Still, if the matchup predictor proves true, the Sooners will be playing for the Big 12 title in 2023 and likely against Texas in an SEC Big 12 title game.

The matchup predictor really liked the Oklahoma Sooners going into last season and we know how that all turned out. If they approach Big 12 title contention, that will be a fantastic year-to-year turnaround for Brent Venables and his staff.

Here’s hoping the computers are correct.

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Story originally appeared on Sooners Wire