ESPN FPI projects remainder of Notre Dame football season
It’s been a slow start to the season for Notre Dame as the Irish sit at 1-2 after their narrow escape over Cal this weekend but with nine games still to go there is plenty to play for even if the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six are off the table.
Is Notre Dame certain to go bowling at all this year? How likely are they to win eight or more games?
I’m in a love-hate relationship with ESPN’s FPI. I say it almost weekly but it’s true. It takes emotion out of it’s rankings and uses all mathematical formulas to rank all FBS teams 1-131 weekly. However, it seems to lack when it comes to teams that manage to regularly find ways to lose or sneak out wins.
That was the biggest thing I kept noticing when tracking FPI with Texas a season ago and even with Notre Dame this year, their 25th overall ranking despite the 1-2 start may leave you with questions.
Regardless, here is how ESPN’s FPI forecasts the remainder of the regular season for Notre Dame:
Sept. 24: at North Carolina
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Week 4 at North Carolina
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 53.5%
Oct. 8 vs. BYU (Las Vegas):
Image courtesy of Notre Dame athletics
Week 6 vs. BYU (Las Vegas)
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 57.8%
Oct. 15 vs. Stanford:
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Week 7 vs. Stanford
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 85%
Oct. 22 vs. UNLV:
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Week 8 vs. UNLV
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 92.4%
Oct. 29 at Syracuse:
Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Week 9 at Syracuse
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 49.3%
Nov. 5 vs. Clemson:
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Week 10 vs. Clemson
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 31.2%
Nov. 12 vs. Navy (Baltimore):
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Week 11 vs. Navy (Baltimore)
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 95.7%
Nov. 19 vs. Boston College:
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Week 12 vs. Boston College
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 90.5%
Nov. 26 at USC:
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 at USC
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 22.8%
Notre Dame FPI Note 1 of 4: Irish fall in rankings
USA TODAY Networks
Despite winning against Cal, Notre Dame actually dropped in the ESPN FPI this week. The Irish went from 18 to 25 after the win, likely in large part due to Marshall being upset at Bowling Green.
Notre Dame FPI Note 2 of 4: A chance to win out!
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
In case you’re a crazy believer in Notre Dame football and only want to hear good things then consider this: ESPN FPI says there is a 0.7% chance that the Irish win their remaining nine games this regular season.
Notre Dame FPI Note 3 of 4: Bowl chances still strong
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
It’ll require Notre Dame to win six games in order to become bowl eligible, something the USA TODAY didn’t think would happen a week ago. As for ESPN’s FPI, it gives the Irish an 85.6% chance of reaching the six-win mark in 2022.
Notre Dame FPI Note 4 of 4: Ultimate record projection
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
As you saw above, Notre Dame is favored in six of their eight remaining contests according to ESPN’s FPI. Those aren’t guarantees of wins, however. The math works out to give Notre Dame a current projected record of 6.8-5.2. Obviously you can’t win part of a game so with some rounding we see the most likely outcome for the Irish is 7-5, at least according to this system.
