ESPN FPI: Oregon’s struggles vs. Texas Tech cause win probability to drop across the board
The Oregon Ducks accomplished what they needed to accomplish against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock over the weekend, coming back home with a victory.
In the long run of the season, that’s all that will matter as we eventually will look back and forget about the miscues that led to Dan Lanning and his squad needing a nine-point comeback in the 4th quarter to win vs. an unranked team. For now, however, those memories are still fresh, and that means that current perception of the Ducks has dropped a bit in the national lens.
After each week of the season, we like to look back at the ESPN FPI and see how the projections change based on the previous result. For the Ducks — who were favored to win all but one game coming going into Week 2 — expectations may have cooled off a bit. While the Ducks are still favored to win every game but one, their win probability has dropped quite a bit in most of the upcoming games, per ESPN.
Despite the win probability drop, the Ducks’ likelihood of winning the national championship increased, likely due to losses elsewhere in the rankings.
Take a look at the latest FPI predictions following Week 2:
Week 3 vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 98.2%
Previous FPI Odds: 97.9%
Analysis
They always say a team makes the most improvements between Week 1 and Week 2 of a season. I would argue that because of Oregon’s opponent in Week 1, their biggest improvement jump will come between now and this game against Hawaii. I expect a blowout.
Week 4 vs. Colorado Buffaloes
(Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 90.5%
Previous FPI Odds: 93.5%
Analysis
This game has turned into arguably one of the most hyped games of the year for both teams. Neither has seen great competition just yet, and both will likely be undefeated. Do I hear College GameDay? Maybe…
Week 5 at Stanford Cardinal
(Photo by Darryl Oumi/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 91.9%
Previous FPI Odds: 87.8%
Analysis
Stanford got its win early in the season, but I don’t see another one coming for quite a while. This win probability could be closer to 100% in my mind. I don’t see the Cardinal winning this one.
Week 7 at Washington Huskies
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 51.2%
Previous FPI Odds: 55.0%
Analysis
To be honest, I’m very surprised that Oregon is still favored in this game, per ESPN FPI. The Huskies will be at home, and they’ve been looking great so far this year. I think the betting line will favor them when all is said and done, but FPI still has confidence in the Ducks.
Week 8 vs. Washington State Cougars
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 85.1%
Previous FPI Odds: 87.9%
Analysis
I’m not surprised this probability dropped for the Ducks, but I would have though it’d drop more than it did. The Cougars looked really good over the weekend, upsetting No. 19 Wisconsin. They’ve got something cooking up in Pullman, and it could give Oregon a scare in October.
Week 9 at Utah Utes
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 51.5%
Previous FPI Odds: 51.5%
Analysis
No change in the win probability for Oregon vs. Utah, which is understandable. The Utes have really struggled to impress the past couple of weeks without Cam Rising, which makes sense. It will be hard to gauge how good they can be until they get their QB under center.
Week 10 vs. California Golden Bears
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 80.4%
Previous FPI Odds: 78.4%
Analysis
Cal has looked a bit frisky so far this year, and I don’t think they’re an automatic out by any means. FPI seems confident in Oregon, though, raising the win probability up by a couple of points.
Week 11 vs. USC Trojans
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 42.1%
Previous FPI Odds: 48.3%
Analysis
It’s no surprise that this is the only game on the schedule that the Ducks are not favored to win, per FPI. USC looks like a dominant juggernaut at the moment, with few teams having the chance to stand in their way and slow down the offense.
Week 12 at Arizona State Sun Devils
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 93.6%
Previous FPI Odds: 92.8%
Analysis
Let’s just get it over with and go ahead and raise this win probability up to 99.9% for Oregon. I’ve seen enough from Arizona State to know that they won’t give the Ducks much of a contest.
Week 13 vs. Oregon State Beavers
(Photo by Ali Gradischer/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 65.5%
Previous FPI Odds: 79.1%
Analysis
I’m not shocked that the win probability dropped so much for the Ducks here, but I am a bit surprised as to how high it still is. This will be a nailbiter if I’ve ever seen one.
Season Outlook
(Photo Courtesy of Ethan Landa)
FPI Score: 18.8
Previous: 18.8
FPI Rank: 11th
Previous: 12th
Projected Record: 9.7-2.7
Previous: 9.6-2.8
Pac-12 Title Odds: 19.0%
Previous: 25.1%
College Football Playoff Odds: 14.6%
Previous: 14.9%
National Championship Odds: 6.2%
Previous: 6.1%
Win Championship Odds: 2.5%
Previous: 2.2%
