ESPN FPI being kind to Notre Dame?
We’ve followed just about every poll, rankings system, and college football analyst who decides to put together rankings this season and one we kept finding to be quite compelling was ESPN’s Football Power Index. It was mind-boggling at times but also very compelling, however it was rarely favorable to Notre Dame.
That may be until this moment.
The majority of the nation had seemingly written off Notre Dame’s chances at a College Football Playoff berth months ago, yet at 11-1 and their regular season already a wrap, their odds haven’t been viewed as overly great.
Related: Notre Dame football coaching tracker
FPI tells a slightly different story however as they relatively like Notre Dame’s odds at crashing the playoff party. There are seven teams who FPI says has a chance at a playoff spot so who are they and what are their chances?
Not Included: Baylor, Oregon
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Baylor, Oregon – 0.0%
Despite having two losses like Alabama or Michigan would if they both lost, Baylor and Oregon are both given a 0% chance at making the CFP. What if Georgia blows out Alabama, Michigan wins, Cincinnati loses, and Baylor beats Oklahoma State by 30? I doubt it all happens but wouldn’t that give Baylor at least a chance and not leave them in the 0% club?
7. Ohio State: 0.1%
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7. Ohio State: 0.1%
Despite getting beat up pretty badly by Michigan and not playing in the Big Ten title game Ohio State still has 1/10 of 1-percent of a chance to get in according to the FPI formula. What exactly would that entail?
6. Oklahoma State: 38.2%
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6. Oklahoma State: 38.2%
Is it as much as win and have Bama lose for Oklahoma State to get in? Based off the 38.2% chance of getting in the FPI suggests that the Cowboys case might not be as strong as we’ve been led to believe.
5. Notre Dame: 46.0%
AP Photo/Robert Franklin
5. Notre Dame: 46.0%
What a week it’s been for Notre Dame as the Irish were stunned to see Brian Kelly bounce to LSU. Is it perhaps that the 13th data point isn’t as valuable as some suggest it to be considering many play an FBS program while Notre Dame (and USC and UCLA) have never scheduled one? Whatever the reasoning is Notre Dame would gladly take almost a coin flip of a chance for a spot entering this weekend.
Related: Is Notre Dame being punished by CFP committee for Brian Kelly leaving?
4. Alabama: 58.9%
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4. Alabama: 58.9%
Alabama is given just a 34.3% chance of beating Georgia with this formula but still check in with almost a 60% chance at getting in, even with some very unimpressive wins they’ve had along the way.
3. Cincinnati: 72%
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3. Cincinnati: 72%
All signs point to a Cincinnati win clinching the Bearcats a playoff spot.
Or do they?
What if Alabama upsets Georgia, Oklahoma State routs Baylor, and Michigan beats Iowa? Is Cincinnati safe?
I’m not certain.
2. Michigan: 85.6%
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2. Michigan: 85.6%
The FPI has Michigan pretty safely in as their playoff odds are almost 14% greater than their chances of beating Iowa. The good news for Michigan is that with how Iowa plays, a blowout loss is almost impossible to see any way of happening.
1. Georgia: 99.2%
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Georgia: 99.2%
The interesting thing to me is that there is almost a 1% chance that Georgia doesn’t get in. How bad would they have to lose and by how many would Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State have to win their games by to make that 0.8% happen?
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