ESPN disagrees with own CFP predictions for Michigan football
If you recall last year, ESPN College Football Playoff analyst Heather Dinich wasn’t exactly the biggest fan of Michigan football. In fact, she was dismissive of the Wolverines until the point that the maize and blue were ‘in.’
This year, despite the schedule she often derided being close to the same, she appears to be pulling more in Michigan’s favor.
ESPN put out a column by Dinich ($) in which she discusses the network’s FPI advanced analytics predictions that put the Wolverines fifth, behind three obvious teams (Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama) and one team that is often the butt of jokes for being “back” (Texas). Surprisingly, Dinich is pulling in favor of the maize and blue, saying they should be ahead of Ohio State in terms of their chance to reach the 2023 College Football Playoff.
Last year’s record: 13-1
FPI projection: Make playoff: 25.9% | Win national title: 3.9%
Caesars Sportsbook odds to make playoff: +115Agree or disagree with FPI: Disagree. After reaching the CFP twice in the past two years and returning a bulk of that experience, Michigan’s chances should be higher and ahead of Ohio State. Right now, Michigan has the edge in returning quarterback experience with J.J. McCarthy, and a proven running game with the duo of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards that has been more physical up front in the rivalry game.
Toughest test: Coin toss between The Game and the Nov. 11 trip to Penn State. Ohio State is the more talented opponent and will have so much at stake, but the Nittany Lions will have home field advantage in what will feel like a Super Bowl for them. PSU will have already played at Ohio State and by this time will know if the home game against Michigan is a must-win to at least force a three-way tie in the Big Ten East.
What the committee will like: A dominant start and a November to remember. Michigan might not face a ranked opponent until mid-November, so it will need to replicate last year’s formula. Michigan scored at least 50 points in its first three wins against Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn last year. The Wolverines don’t have to run up the score against ECU, UNLV and Bowling Green, but they won’t help themselves by scrapping their way to wins against unranked, unheralded opponents — especially considering Michigan opens with four straight home games. Michigan’s schedule is backloaded, though, with three of the last five games on the road (Oct. 21 at Michigan State, Nov. 11 at Penn State, Nov. 18 at Maryland), before ending the regular season Nov. 25 against the Buckeyes. Maryland, which gave Michigan fits last year, shouldn’t be overlooked.
What the committee won’t like: A nonconference schedule without Power 5 opponents. This will become a concern if Michigan doesn’t win the Big Ten, or is in a debate with another contender with a similar record (i.e. a Texas team that has a win against Alabama on its résumé, or an LSU team that beat a ranked Florida State, or a USC that beats Notre Dame).
She’s not wrong about the nonconference schedule being light, just like last year. However, if the Wolverines are blowing through the competition and beat the few teams on the schedule that are daunting and among the toughest teams in all of college football, then it will be in, just like it was the past two years.
Not to mention, some teams that are expected to be no good (as well some some expected to be good) could be not like advertised. Such is the nature of college football.
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