ESPN BPI game-by-game predictions of Ohio State basketball’s 2021-2022 schedule
In case this snuck up on you, the Ohio State basketball team opens up the season Tuesday night against in-state opponent Akron. There’s a lot we simply don’t know about this team with some key departures and additions, so it’ll be interesting to see the team develop.
Losing Duane Washington to the NBA was a hit, but getting Kyle Young and E.J. Liddell back for the season was a boost. Add in some interesting transfers like Cedric Russell, Joey Brunk, and Jamari Wheeler, and there are pieces there for Ohio State to be really good — if everything comes together.
After last season ended, expectations for this team were somewhere in the neighborhood of Final Four potential, but after all the shuffling of rosters across the college basketball landscape, many now see OSU as a fringe top-fifteen team … but that’s why they play the games.
We thought it would be interesting to take a look at ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index) to see what it has to say about Ohio State’s chances of winning every game on its schedule using their “matchup predictor.” We do it for football, and we started to look at it for basketball last season and found it interesting to see how things change from expectations at the beginning of the year, through the season.
So off we go. Here’s a look at what ESPN’s BPI predicts as the percentage possibility of winning each game on the regular-season schedule for Ohio State before all the fun tips off on Tuesday evening.
Weds., Jan. 27, vs. Penn State
Mar 12, 2021; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Akron Zips head coach John Groce talks with his team during the first half against the Buffalo Bulls at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 86.2%
Running predictive record: 1-0 (0-0 in Big Ten)
Friday, November 12, vs. Niagra
November. 9, 2012; Portland, OR, USA; Niagra Purple Eagles player Joe Thomas dunks during the first half of the game against the Oregon State Beavers at the Gill Coliseum. Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 93.5%
Running predictive record: 2-0 (0-0 in Big Ten)
Monday, November 15, vs. Bowling Green
Mar 11, 2021; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Bowling Green State Falcons forward Daeqwon Plowden (25) dunks against the Akron Zips during the second half at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 89.3%
Running predictive record: 3-0 (0-0 in Big Ten)
Thursday, November 18, at Xavier
Xavier Musketeers guard Colby Jones (3) returns to the bench with 18 points in the second half of the NCAA exhibition game between the Xavier Musketeers and the Ferris State Bulldogs at the Cintas Center in Cincinnati on Friday, Nov. 5, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Xavier
Win Probability: 52.5.%
Running predictive record: 3-1 (0-0 in Big Ten)
Monday, November 22, vs. Seton Hall
Mar 12, 2021; New York, NY, USA; Seton Hall Pirates forward Sandro Mamukelashvili (23) dribbles against the Georgetown Hoyas guard Jahvon Blair (0) during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 56.5%
Running predictive record: 4-1 (0-0 in Big Ten)
Tuesday, November 30, vs. Duke
Oct 15, 2021; Durham, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski addresses the crowd during Duke Countdown to Craziness at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 67.6%
Running predictive record: 5-1 (0-0 in Big Ten)
Sunday, December 5, at Penn State
Penn State’s Izaiah Brockington, right, drives to the basket on Ohio State’s Musa Jallow (2) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Thursday, Feb. 18, 2021, in State College, Pa. (AP Photo/Gary M. Baranec)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 76.7%
Running predictive record: 6-1 (1-0 in Big Ten)
Wednesday, December 8, vs. Towsend
Nov 25, 2020; Uncasville, Connecticut, USA; Towson Tigers guard Zane Martin (2) moves the ball against Virginia Cavaliers forward Justin McKoy (4) in the first half at Mohegan Sun Arena. Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 92.5%
Running predictive record: 7-1 (1-0 in Big Ten)
Saturday, December 11, vs. Wisconsin
Jan. 23, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Greg Gard watches his team in the game with the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first half at the Kohl Center. Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 75.9%
Running predictive record: 8-1 (2-0 in Big Ten)
Saturday, December 18, vs. Kentucky
Mar 11, 2021; Nashville, TN, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach John Calipari talks with his team in a huddle before the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Bridgestone Arena. Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Kentucky
Win Probability: 61.9%
Running predictive record: 8-2 (2-0 in Big Ten)
Tuesday, December 21, vs. UT Martin
Nov 14, 2014; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Marquette Golden Eagles forward Sandy Cohen III (5) defends UT Martin Skyhawks guard Dee Oldham (1) in the second half at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The Golden Eagles beat the Skyhawks 79-63. Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 96.9%
Running predictive record: 9-2 (2-0 in Big Ten)
Tuesday, December 28, vs. New Orleans
Dec 28, 2019; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Tigers guard Alex Lomax (2) attempts to steal the ball from New Orleans Privateers guard Charles Bohannon (5) during the second half at FedExForum. Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 95.3%
Running predictive record: 10-2 (2-0 in Big Ten)
Sunday, January 2, at Nebraska
Jan 2, 2021; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Fred Hoiberg watches the action against the Michigan State Spartans in the second half at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 58.2%
Running predictive record: 11-2 (3-0 in Big Ten)
Thursday, January 6, at Indiana
Feb 1, 2020; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes forward Andre Wesson (24) drives past Indiana Hoosiers forward Jerome Hunter (21) during the first half at Value City Arena. Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 55.0%
Running predictive record: 12-2 (4-0 in Big Ten)
Sunday, January 9, vs. Northwestern
March 7, 2020; Evanston, Illinois; Northwestern Wildcats head coach Chris Collins gestures to his team during the first half at Welsh-Ryan Arena. David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 79.7%
Running predictive record: 13-2 (5-0 in Big Ten)
Thursday, January 13, at Wisconsin
Jan 23, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Tyler Wahl (5) works the ball against Ohio State Buckeyes forward Justin Sueing (right) during the second half at the Kohl Center. Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Win Probability: 53.0%
Running predictive record: 13-3 (5-1 in Big Ten)
Sunday, January 16, vs. Penn State
Jan 27, 2021; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions guard Myles Dread (2) gestures during the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Value City Arena. Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 91.7%
Running predictive record: 14-3 (6-1 in Big Ten)
Saturday, January 22, vs. Nebraska
Jan. 14, 2020; Columbus, Ohio; Nebraska Cornhuskers guard Dachon Burke Jr. (11)guarded by Ohio State Buckeyes forward Justin Ahrens (10) during the second half at Value City Arena. Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 85.0%
Running predictive record: 15-3 (7-1 in Big Ten)
Thursday, January 27, at Minnesota
Mar 11, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers center Sam Freeman (32) defends as Ohio State Buckeyes forward E.J. Liddell (32) drives to the basket against Minnesota Golden Gophers forward Isaiah Ihnen (35) in the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 53.1%
Running predictive record: 16-3 (8-1 in Big Ten)
Sunday, January 30, at Purdue
Ohio State Buckeyes forward E.J. Liddell (32) loses control of the ball against Purdue Boilermakers forward Trevion Williams (50) during the Big Ten tournament, Friday, March 12, 2021, at Lucas Oil Stadium in downtown Indianapolis. Ohio State Buckeyes defeated the Purdue Boilermakers in overtime, 87-78. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Purdue
Win Probability: 67.8%
Running predictive record: 16-4 (8-2 in Big Ten)
Thursday, February 3 vs. Iowa
Feb 20, 2020; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Bakari Evelyn (4) goes to the basket as Ohio State Buckeyes forward Kyle Young (25) defends during the first half at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 72.1%
Running predictive record: 17-4 (9-2 in Big Ten)
Sunday, February 6, vs. Maryland
Feb 8, 2021; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mark Turgeon reacts during the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Xfinity Center. Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 73.7%
Running predictive record: 18-4 (10-2 in Big Ten)
Wednesday, February 9, at Rutgers
Dec 8, 2020; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Jacob Young (42) reacts against the Syracuse Orange during the second half at Rutgers Athletic Center (RAC). Credit: Catalina Fragoso-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Rutgers
Win Probability: 56.1%
Running predictive record: 18-5 (10-3 in Big Ten)
Saturday, February 12, at Michigan
Michigan Wolverines center Hunter Dickinson (1) works against Ohio State Buckeyes guard Musa Jallow (2) on Saturday, March 13, 2021, during the men’s Big Ten basketball tournament from Lucas Oil Stadium. Ohio State Buckeyes beat Michigan Wolverines 68-67. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Michigan
Win Probability: 66.5%
Running predictive record: 18-6 (10-4 in Big Ten)
Tuesday, February 12, vs. Minnesota
Mar 11, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers forward Isaiah Ihnen (35) attempts a rebound against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the first half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 86.4%
Running predictive record: 19-6 (11-4 in Big Ten)
Saturday, February 16, vs. Indiana
Feb 13, 2021; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Indiana Hoosiers guard Rob Phinisee (10) defended by Ohio State Buckeyes forward Kyle Young (25) during the first half at Value City Arena. Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 79.7%
Running predictive record: 20-6 (12-4 in Big Ten)
Thursday, February 24, at Illinois
Jan 16, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; A wide-angle view is seen during the first half of a game between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Ohio State Buckeyes at the State Farm Center. Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Illinois
Win Probability: 75.2%
Running predictive record: 20-7 (12-5 in Big Ten)
Sunday, February 27, at Maryland
Feb 8, 2021; College Park, Maryland, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes forward E.J. Liddell (32) shoots over Maryland Terrapins forward Galin Smith (30) and forward Donta Scott (24) during the second half at Xfinity Center. Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Maryland
Win Probability: 56.2%
Running predictive record: 20-8 (12-6 in Big Ten)
Thursday, March 3, vs. Michigan State
Feb 25, 2021; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo argues a call with an official during the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 71.6%
Running predictive record: 21-8 (13-6 in Big Ten)
Sunday, March 6, vs. Michigan
Feb 21, 2021; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Chaundee Brown (15) defended by Ohio State Buckeyes forward Justin Ahrens (10) during the first half at Value City Arena. Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Win Probability: 62.4%
Predictive record for end of regular season: 22-8 (14-6 in Big Ten)
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