Durant Kicks the New Year Off

Okay folks, the first Rotoworld column of 2015 is here! We’re going to keep it short and sweet because I’m on the road, but next week look for a full slate of writing including a much-needed Bruski Breakdown. If you’re reading this Wednesday night be safe, call a cab, and get your money’s worth.

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THE BIG NUMBERS

BUSTED

INJURIES

Kevin Love (back), LeBron James (knee) and Shawn Marion did not play, leaving Kyrie Irving (25 points, five boards, four assists) free to post a big, inefficient line on 9-of-23 shooting. Tristan Thompson put up an unsurprising 10 points, 13 rebounds, one block in a mostly empty standard league line, and Mike Miller posted a wonky five points on 2-of-8 shooting with eight rebounds, three assists, two steals, one block and one three. One look at his game log shows he’s hands-off for now, and the Cavs are probably just looking to get to the New Year without any major controversies, and no the Dwyane Wade thing doesn’t count.

Larry Sanders (illness) missed last night’s game and now Jason Kidd has said that “with (Zaza Pachulia) and John Henson playing the way they are, (he’ll) have to “work himself back into the lineup.” Whether this is standard Jason Kidd coach speak or Sanders is slipping, he can only be treated like a stash now because it appears his late-round value isn’t guaranteed when he returns (and it was barely guaranteed over the past few weeks).

Jerryd Bayless did not play last night due to a sore knee and Ersan Ilyasova continues to miss time due to his concussion. Anybody tracking concussions in Milwaukee over the past few years knows that they can be maddening from a fantasy perspective. I liked Ilyasova as a pickup following Jabari Parker’s injury but now he’s merely a lottery ticket-type stash with plenty of issues.

Gregg Popovich said that he expects Tony Parker (hamstring) to return before Kawhi Leonard (hand), and that Leonard will return “later rather than sooner.” Leonard is killing me and many of you who followed me into that action, but I’m trying hard not to get too down because this stuff has been so random. I’ll move his hand into injury-risk territory for a while until he proves it shouldn’t be, and I think what we need to do with him is simply not believe a thing the Spurs say. They’ve been all over the board with reporting this injury, among others, and we should just treat him as being out indefinitely until the next solid report.

For more injury news check out our injury page.

WELCOME BACK

J.R. Smith (foot) and Andrea Bargnani (calf) returned to action after long absences, with Smith (seven points, two boards, one three) logging 17 minutes and Bargnani (nine points, four boards) getting 20 minutes in his season debut. The biggest fantasy story here isn’t those guys, though Smith could conceivably have some value if everything breaks correctly and it very well could on a team this bad, but rather the change we’ve seen in Tim Hardaway’s game lately.

Hardaway played just 20 minutes with five points and one block and he should most certainly head to benches where possible, but with the ball in his hands more we’ve seen small upticks in his rebounding and assist totals. I think that trend will only improve and I’ll be holding him as the only young, healthy and aggressive asset that the Knicks have to rely on in the second half of the year.

PICKUPS

Mario Chalmers is going to be a low-end play for a little bit here while Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh do their thing. He scored just five points with two rebounds, six assists and four turnovers in 33 minutes, and I’d personally add him if he gets dropped after that slow night unless I’m stacked. He has top 100-140 value on the year already (8/9 cat), and late-early round upside if veterans Wade and Bosh decide not to grind through this season. Heck, he might have that upside if anything happens to Wade on his own.

Chris Andersen is also reprising previous roles as an under-the-radar addition to your squad, returning top 85-135 value (9/8 cat) over the past 10 games with averages of 7.3 points, 6.0 boards, 1.9 combined steals and blocks and 64.3 percent field goal shooting in 22.4 mpg. This is a pretty good idea of what his value can be as long as he’s upright, and if you need a big man there should be nothing stopping you from making this add. He’s a must-add player in 9-cat leagues and a must-own player in 8-cat leagues.

If Josh Smith took seven shots per game like he did last night, made a three like he did last night, and put up the other stats he had last night of four rebounds, three assists, three steals and three blocks we’d all be fine. Of course the defensive numbers are not sustainable, but this style of line could pay big dividends for owners. It’s enough to keep him held across the board or added if he has been dropped.

THE MIDDLE

C.J. Miles scored 25 points with seven rebounds, four assists, one steal, one block and five 3-pointers, and even with this big line a three-game sample of his work has him scraping the bottom of the top-150. Factor in his durability and I’m not going to tell you to make the add, but perhaps you can get one more game out of the streaky shooter.

Danny Granger got on the board again with 14 points, three rebounds, one steal and two threes and I barely had the inclination to write this sentence. Even if he miraculously posts top-100 value for three weeks before burning out, I won’t lose any sleep about missing out.

Tyler Zeller had another slow night with seven points, two boards and one block in 18 minutes, but he’s produced enough to stay owned unless this continues for at least a few more games. No, I don’t care about Evan Turner’s 10 points, six boards, 11 assists, three steals and four turnovers against a Kings team that is finding out about coaching decisions from mine and others’ Twitter feeds.

Marcus Smart came off the bench and put up 11 points, six rebounds, two assists, two steals and three treys in 27 minutes. He has had a decent week but his season-long numbers and everything prior to this week has been terrible. Shooting is the primary culprit, though he does have some upside if he can keep those issues down to a dull roar and continue to flash money counting stat upside. I just can’t see calling him a must-add player knowing he has those anchors to his value in standard leagues. Must-own? Maybe if we’re saying anything with a pulse of upside should get a look on somebody’s roster.

Cole Aldrich had another decent night with eight points, five boards, five assists, one steal and one block in 31 minutes, and the Triangle actually seems to agree with him, but his knees are mush and picking him up is done entirely at your own risk. Amare Stoudemire’s eventual return won’t help, either.

Jared Dudley finally cooled off with nine points, seven boards and one three in 30 minutes, and it was only a matter of time before his shooting regressed after his hot streak. He’s returning top 145-185 value (9/8 cat) on the season in 22 minutes per game, with shooting numbers that are still way ahead of where he’ll likely finish. In a 9-cat league where the catch-and-shoot player is more valuable, I can see how being aggressive and projecting 25-plus minutes can net him late-round value.

In an 8-cat league I think he needs to be closer to the 30 minutes he got tonight, and gun to my head I don’t think he’ll get all the way there, and that keeps him out of must-own territory in my book. For the next week or two, though, it’s possible he plays above that cut line while the Bucks are banged up.

Alex Len was quiet with just two points, six boards and one block in 21 minutes, and unlike some others around here I don’t think he’s a lock to show constant improvement, but rather the ebb-and-flow of a young player that is nowhere near being featured. I think when you smooth out the curves that arrow will still point up, and with top 140-170 value (9/8 cat) value on the year in just 19.2 mpg he offers a nice floor for owners to work with.

HORNET EDITION

Marvin Williams went to the locker room in the fourth quarter of last night’s loss to the Rockets, and finished with just three points and two boards in 16 minutes. Gerald Henderson (16 points, four rebounds, two assists, one steal, no threes, 31 minutes) might end up being a bigger beneficiary than I had previously thought for Al Jefferson’s groin injury, but I’m still not running to pick his low-upside up. Noah Vonleh played two minutes and he’s clearly not close to radars.

Cody Zeller had the makings of a line with a steal and block to go with his six points, seven boards and three assists, and Bismack Biyombo went for nine and seven with three blocks while hitting 7-of-10 free throws. Biyombo has the best upside if he can hit free throws, which is very much up in the air, and Zeller has the best blend of the aforementioned for his upside and floor, while Henderson probably nets you borderline 12-14 team value without blinking an eye.

Gary Neal (10 points, six boards, one steal, one block, zero threes) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (16 points, eight rebounds, two blocks) might be better adds than all of them, so as you can see a lot remains to shake out in Charlotte for the next month.