Ducks Wire Roundtable: Predictions and opinions for the Oregon vs. BYU game
Here we are again, entering a Saturday full of college football games across the nation, with the Oregon Ducks coming in as one of the main focuses of the day.
It happened a couple of weeks ago with the Ducks facing off against the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs in the season-opener. We all know how that went. This time around, Oregon will be met with a much more favorable opponent on the other sideline; that’s not to say anything bad about BYU, just to note that they aren’t Georgia — who is?
In a top-25 showdown that will draw the attention of a lot of national media members, the Ducks will look to prove how good they really are. Oregon had high expectations going into the year, but a lot of those were temporarily washed away after the Week 1 drubbing to the Bulldogs. Will a blowout win over Eastern Washington be enough to get the Ducks back on the right track? It will be interesting to see.
To help preview all of the action, Ducks Wire writers Zachary Neel, Don Smalley, and Andy Patton got together to make predictions, and offer opinions on what we might see.
Here is your third Ducks Wire Roundtable of the 2022 season. Enjoy.
Who is the real Oregon?
Question: Through two games so far, we’ve seen two very different Oregon teams. Which version — Georgia or Eastern Washington — is closer to the team that we will see vs. BYU on Saturday?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
Unfortunately, if I had to choose between the two, I think it’s the Week 1 Oregon we see more so than the Week 2 Oregon against BYU. I don’t think the Ducks will get blown out, but I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the things that have plagued them — missed tackles, turnovers, blown coverages — pop up once again against a really good BYU team.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
Can I say somewhere in the middle? The team that shows up against BYU should be the team we will see the rest of the way. There will be a good offense capable of striking at any time and (hopefully) a defense that makes plays and can be dominating at times.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
I think Oregon will look more like the version we saw against Eastern Washington, but it seems likely the first two games represent the extremes so Week 3 will be somewhere near the middle. Hopefully the defense is able to generate more pressure than they did in Week 1, and the clearly better version of Bo Nix would be a nice addition as well.
Which WR steps up?
Question: Last week, it was Troy Franklin and Terrance Ferguson who stood out the most in the passing game. Do you think that will continue this week and into the season, or will other players step up. If you think others will step up, who will it be?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
To be honest, I think it will be Troy Franklin who continues to be the No. 1 WR in this offense. There was nothing but positive buzz about him this off-season. If I had to choose another guy to break out and have a big game, give me Dont’e Thornton.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
This could be a breakout season for Terrance Ferguson. He has a chance to become one of the top tight ends in the country. Look for more production out of Kris Hutson and Chase Cota on Saturday.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
I expect it to change a little throughout the season, although Franklin will likely establish himself as the go-to. I think he’ll have another big game, and I’ll be keeping a close eye on Seven McGee as well.
Biggest Defensive Gripe
Question: What’s been your biggest gripe with the defense thus far through two games? Will it be fixed on Saturday?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
For me, it’s been the pass rush that has been missed the most so far. We knew that Oregon needed to be better in that area — even with Kayvon Thibodeaux last year, the Ducks weren’t world-beaters in the sack department — but didn’t know where the production would come from. We still don’t know. It’s going to be hard for the Ducks to get after the QB against a massive BYU offensive line, but I think that’s the biggest thing that Oregon needs to unlock to be a dominant defense.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
Honestly, I thought they would be better. The linebackers have pretty much been MIA and they need to join the party the rest of the way. If they don’t it’s going to be a rough season. But it’s not just Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe. The defensive line hasn’t been in the backfield hardly at all in the first two games.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
Pass rush just hasn’t been there. You knew Kayvon Thibodeaux moving on was going to make things tough, but especially against Georgia, it was flat-out non-existent. BYU has three absolute units up front, and an experienced quarterback, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is another tough game for Dan Lanning’s pass rush.
BYU's Strength
Question: BYU has been really solid on both sides of the ball, with Jaren Hall leading an efficient offense, while a veteran group of linebackers anchors a physical defense. Which unit do you see giving the Ducks more trouble on Saturday?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
I fear that the BYU defense is going to give the Ducks some problems. In particular, I think Bo Nix is going to struggle with the Cougars’ linebacking core in coverage. They have an adept zone defense that forces a QB to be precise and patient, two things that we’ve seen Nix struggle with in his career. If he tries to do too much, which we’ve seen before, it can get him into a lot of trouble.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
BYU’s defense. They’re athletic enough to stay with the Duck receivers and play with Oregon in space. Bo Nix can’t force a pass through a tight window or he will be picked off. If the Oregon defense plays well and up to what we think they are capable of, the BYU offense doesn’t scare me all that much, especially if one or both of their top receivers are limited or out altogether.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
I think the offense will present more of an issue, mostly because of the experience up front and under center. Oregon’s pass rush hasn’t proven itself just yet, and Saturday would be a great time for them to turn some heads.
Sunday's Headline Today
Question: Try to look into the future for me here: On Sunday or Monday, Oregon fans are saying what about their team and this performance?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
I’m sorry for the negative side of me coming out — we will get to that more in my score prediction — but I think this is another tough game for Oregon. I think Duck fans wake up on Sunday morning frustrated that the defense struggled again, and the cries for Bo Nix to be replaced only grow louder after he finishes with multiple interceptions. It’s a bleak prediction, but one I wouldn’t be surprised to see come to fruition.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
They’ll be excited to see this team the rest of the way as the defense finally showed up and some explosion plays down the field will get the fan base excited.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
Oregon fans will be happy with a win, but I think there will still be a lot of questions and concerns regarding both the offense and defense. BYU knows how to exploit any potential mismatches, and they’ll make Oregon work for everything they get.
Place Your Bets
Question: Back to the betting world. $100 to place how you want on the spread (Oregon -3.5), the money line (Oregon -175), and the Over/Under (57.5), where are you placing your bets?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
If you’re giving me plus-odds on BYU to win the game, I’m going to take it. Yes, Oregon looked good against EWU last week, but the Cougars have looked great all year. I think they are good enough to come into Autzen and down the Ducks. Let me put $50 on the BYU ML (+130) and then the other $50 on the BYU spread (+3.5) to cover by behind in case Oregon pulls out a game-winning field goal.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
This is going to be a close game. I’d take BYU to stay within 3.5, but take Oregon to win and take the under 57.5
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
I’ll put $60 on the spread and $40 on the over. I do think Oregon will win, and I think they’ll win by at least a touchdown, so it’s worth it to bet the spread instead of the moneyline which is a poor payoff. I also think the over is a good bet for this game, as both teams have proven they can score and haven’t necessarily proven it on the defensive end (although BYU looked good against Baylor).
Final Score Prediction
Question: What is your final score prediction?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
I hate to do it, but I think BYU’s dream season really takes flight here in Eugene. Give me BYU 34, Oregon 24. Calls for the CFP for the Cougars, and more calls for Ty Thompson for the Ducks.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
Ducks win 27-24.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
I’ll take Oregon 38, BYU 31 in this one. I do think it’ll be close, but ultimately I like the Ducks to win here and establish some confidence heading into conference play.
