Ducks Wire Roundtable: Predictions and opinions for the Oregon vs. Stanford game
The Oregon Ducks have done a great job of proving what type of team they are through four weeks of the season. With a comeback win over the Washington State Cougars last week, Dan Lanning and his squad proved that they are capable of digging deep and stepping up to the plate when tested in a tough environment.
Now they’ll look to prove if they can right some past wrongs in a budding rivalry against the Stanford Cardinal.
We’ve gone deep into the past against Stanford and explained in depth how there is no matchup in the Pac-12 that has done more damage to the own conference than Duck vs. Cardinal. When one team is ranked with a path to potential championships, the other always comes in, ready to cut those chances down. We saw it last year with a No. 3 ranked Oregon team losing to an unranked Stanford team in overtime. So with the Ducks ranked No. 15 this year, will history repeat itself?
To help preview all of the action, Ducks Wire writers Zachary Neel, Don Smalley, and Andy Patton got together to make predictions, and offer opinions on what we might see.
Here is your fifth Ducks Wire Roundtable of the 2022 season. Enjoy.
Revisiting Washington State
Question: It was a roller-coaster win over Washington State last week, so before we move on to Stanford, I want to revisit that victory. A lot went wrong to get Oregon into a comeback situation, but they did a lot right to get out of it. Were you more impressed or frustrated by the performance as a whole?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
It feels almost like an even split between impressed and frustrated for me. While this is a game that Oregon likely doesn’t win under previous coaching staffs, and I appreciated their comeback efforts, I still can’t get over the fact that the Ducks are a team that shouldn’t have been in that situation in the first place. If not for a competent red zone offense, or a few boneheaded plays being eliminated, that game is won by two scores at the very least. I may be asking for a lot, but if we want this Oregon squad to be as good as we think they can be, they have to stop getting in their own way. Luckily, it’s nice to know now that they can climb out of a hole under Lanning, though.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
I was impressed and even though the Ducks were down by 12 in the fourth quarter, I was hopeful. They were able to move the ball at will in between the 20s. If they could have just figured out how to finish drives, they would be okay and thankfully, that’s exactly what happened. Same thing with the defense. It seemed like they were there to make the play and some fluky thing would happen whether it be a bad targeting call or Cameron Ward performing tricks. On one of their last possessions, WSU ran out of tricks and had the ball for just 50 seconds, leading to Bo Nix finding Troy Franklin for the 50-yard touchdown.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
Impressed – it’s never ever easy to win in a tough road environment, and while things got tough it was excellent to see this team respond in the closing minutes and secure a victory. WSU is a very good team, so a victory is huge even if it came in a furious comeback.
Bo Nix for Heisman?
Question: After another impressive showing from Bo Nix, the Oregon QB is starting to get a little bit of Heisman buzz. Do you think it’s deserved? What do we need to see from him to really put Nix in the conversation?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
I wrote this week about Bo Nix getting Heisman votes. It may seem early, but if you remove his history at Auburn and look at just the 2022 numbers, it makes sense. He’s got 1,100 yards and 10 TDs on 72% completion percentage. Those aren’t world-beating numbers, but I think he belongs in the conversation at the very least as long as Oregon continues to win.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
It’s not deserved quite yet, but if he continues with his good play and putting up 400 yards every week as he did in Pullman, then he’ll be in the conversation for sure. Nix needs to stay away from those untimely interceptions. Announcers are poised to say a Pick-6 on Nix! It’s unoriginal and beyond annoying.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
I don’t think Nix is a super serious Heisman candidate just yet, but his recent performances do at least have him on the right track. Next few games are Oregon’s “easy” part of the schedule, and if he can keep the Ducks winning while avoiding turnovers I think he will remain on the fringes of Heisman candidacy. To really establish himself as a front runner this team needs to win out, a tough task but not an impossible one.
Early-Season Check-In
Question: We’re through one-third of the 2022 season so far. Let’s just check in really quickly on where we’re at with this team. Who do you think has been the biggest surprise for you, and who has been the biggest disappointment through four games?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
I’d be lying if I didn’t say my biggest surprise this year has been the play of Bo Nix. We knew coming into the year that his occasional untimely interception was a part of the package, but I wasn’t aware that 400-plus yard games with 5 TDs were going to be included in that package as well. He’s been the best player on the team by far this season. As far as disappointments, I would have to say the defense leaves a lot to be desired. We knew that the secondary might struggle, but Oregon’s propensity to miss tackles and give up plays to the outside has been frustrating early on, to say the least.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
Bucky Irving is my biggest surprise. We weren’t sure where he would be on the depth chart and all of the sudden, he’s in on the first offensive series against Georgia. He’s turning out to be a very good tailback for this team. My biggest disappointment so far and I hate to say it, is Noah Sewell. He played well last week but he saw a lot of action because of the nature of WSU’s offense. It wasn’t anything special that he did. Sewell was touted as a favorite to win the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year and I’m not seeing it. But there’s plenty of time to turn it around.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
Terrance Ferguson and Bucky Irving have been excellent contributors on offense, both exceeding the role I expected them to have coming into the season. Justin Flowe hasn’t been the stud LB many expected him to be under Dan Lanning, although that could change as the season goes along.
Avoiding a Trap
Question: Oregon has a long history with Stanford, with upsets always in the back of mind for Duck fans. This game is played in the Pac-12 After Dark window doesn’t help that. What’s the No. 1 key in your mind for the Ducks to avoid falling into the Cardinal trap this year?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
I touched on it a bit earlier, but I think the Ducks just need to stay out of their own way. This is a game on paper that they should win by 3 touchdowns. If they shoot themselves in the foot with mistakes early, though, then some Stanford demons might come out to play.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
If McKee is allowed to sit in the pocket and not rushed, the Ducks could be in trouble. But I’d be shocked if this was the case.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
Taking care of the football. Stanford hasn’t forced many turnovers this season, and if Bo Nix and the offense can avoid making Stanford’s job easier they should find themselves in a nice position to secure a victory.
Stanford's X-Factor
Question: Stanford is extremely banged up right now, with their starting RB out for the season, and both tackles questionable to play. Who do you think is the No. 1 factor for Oregon to watch on the Cardinal roster?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
I’m interested to watch WR Michael Wilson on the outside. He’s a real X-factor in the passing game for Stanford, with 300 yards and 4 TD this year already. If Christian Gonzalez lines up against him, I feel confident. If David Shaw moves him around though and gets him matched up against Trikweze Bridges or a nickel back, I may start to get nervous.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
The matchup of corner Kyu Blu Kelly against whatever receiver he’s playing, probably Troy Franklin, should be interesting. Kelly is one of the best corners in the Pac-12. This could be the game where Dont’e Thornton and Kris Hutson finally have a big impact. Kelly can’t cover everyone.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
It always starts at quarterback. Tanner McKee can be turnover prone, and without his star back and potentially with weaker protection up front he’s going to have to play his best ball for the Cardinal to have a chance in this one.
Place Your Bets
Question: Place your bets. $100 to spend on the spread (Oregon -15.5), the money line (Oregon -700) or the Over/Under (63.5) where are you putting your money?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
I’m taking all of my money and placing it on Oregon -15.5 here. I think the Ducks blow them out. I would like to convince myself to sprinkle some money on the under as well because I hope that Oregon’s defense comes to prove something, but I need to see it first.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
I think Oregon should cruise in this game. I’ll put $40 on Oregon covering the -15.5 and the rest on the over 63.5.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
$75 on the points for Stanford, $25 on the under. I think Oregon will win, but -700 is hardly worth touching. I also think Stanford will keep it close, so I’d rather put my money there than on the money line where the return is minimal.
Final Score Prediction
Question: Who wins this game and what’s the final score?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
Give me the Ducks in a statement win. Oregon 56, Stanford 17.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
Considering Stanford’s health issues, Oregon rolls 45-20.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
Oregon wins, 32-21.
