Ducks Wire Roundtable: Predictions, opinions for Oregon vs. Hawaii
The Oregon Ducks will finish their nonconference schedule this weekend against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, and it’s going to be an important weekend when it comes to cleaning up their execution and getting prepared for a tough Pac-12 slate ahead.
A week from now, Oregon will host Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes. A couple of weeks after that, they will head to Seattle to take on the Washington Huskies. From there, the schedule is an endless gantlet of games that could push the Ducks to the edge. That makes this weekend’s game against Hawaii important when it comes to shoring up schematic issues on both offense and defense and most importantly, getting everyone healthy into the conference slate.
To preview the action, Ducks Wire writers Zachary Neel, Don Smalley and Miles Dwyer made predictions and offered opinions on what we might see.
Here is your second regular-season Ducks Wire roundtable of the 2023 season. Enjoy.
The Texas Tech Win
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Question: The Oregon fan base feels pretty split after the win over Texas Tech. One subset of fans feels that the team is terrible and it was a bad performance, while the other feels good about the guts shown in a comeback win. Which side of the coin do you fall on?
I see both sides of the coin, but in general, I tend to lean toward the more optimistic outlook. While it would have been impressive to see Oregon go into Lubbock and blow out a decent team in the Red Raiders, I like the fact we saw them show some real poise and tenacity, coming back from down 9 points in the fourth quarter in a hostile environment. This team showed that it has some real fight, and that’s going to be important down the road.
Immediately after the game, I fell on the negative Nancy side of things, but over the course of the week my outlook on the Texas Tech game has improved. One of the things that made me start to look at the game more positively was a point Dan Lanning made about penalties and how they affected drives. He pointed out that on the drives with false starts, the Ducks were forced to punt, but they were able to score on the clean drives. Penalties are one of the easiest things for a team and a coaching staff to clean up, which gave me more optimism than I initially had after the game.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
The people who believe this team is terrible are just silly. This is a very good team. Sure they should have played better and they shouldn’t have had to rally late to beat Texas Tech. But considering the position they put themselves in, it’s a great sign they can pull it together on the road and come through when they absolutely need to. That kind of clutchness (is that a word?) will do Oregon good down the road.
Offense vs. Defense
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Question: The offense and defense had some mistakes on Saturday against Texas Tech. Which do you think is more of a cause for concern at the moment?
I struggle to pick between the two, but I honestly am going to say that the answer gave me a bit of concern on Saturday. We know that there might be some ups and downs on defense this year, but the Oregon offensive success should never be in question. However, the Ducks went two quarters against Texas Tech scoring just 3 points, which put them in a place where they needed to come back late. If Oregon is going to be as good as we think they can be, the offense is going to need to be better than that.
The defense. While the mistakes of both sides came from a lack of discipline, the defensive issues seem harder to correct. A lot of the issues on defense are because many players aren’t comfortable playing the positions that they are in the Ducks’ defensive scheme. However, while I do think working out the kinks on defense will be more difficult than on offense, I don’t think it’s unattainable, I just think it will take a bit more time and effort.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
The mistakes they made can easily be corrected and that’s good. The false starts can be eliminated once this offensive line gels and the defensive backs playing the ball more, turning their head and not going into “panic mode” as Lanning called it can also be fixed in practice. I expect a better showing this week vs. Hawaii.
Pac-12 Prominence
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Question: At this point in the season, we’ve seen Pac-12 teams have a ton of success. Which showing so much gives you the most cause for concern for the Ducks in the conference?
I have to say Washington State has really impressed me the most this season. I knew they would be decent this year with another season under Cameron Ward, but it’s apparent they are playing with a real chip on their shoulder. I really think they could end up upsetting any of the top teams in the conference and upend the Pac-12 season.
Colorado coming out of almost nowhere and having the season they’re having definitely gives me the most concern in the short-term. I expected them to be a 4-6 win team this year, but they look far better than I could’ve imagined. Unfortunately, as a Colorado native, I have plenty of friends and family that will surely be ready to pounce if Oregon drops the game to CU. USC also still scares me a lot though.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
I’m not sure anything has been much of a surprise, even Colorado. I think Washington State is better than we all thought. That Oct. 21 game at Autzen will be a great game. The Beavers are also scary now that they have a legit quarterback.
Who Needs a Boost?
Question: We are expecting another blowout this week against Hawaii. Who do you think needs to have the better day, the offense or the defense?
Although I talked about my slight concerns with the offense earlier, I don’t think this will be a game where we learn a lot because of Hawaii’s lackluster defense. The Ducks’ secondary will be put to the test though, as the Rainbow Warriors have a really solid passing attack that will test them early and often. I think if Oregon can shut that air raid down, we will have some really improved confidence going into conference play.
I think the offense will have the better day, but the defense definitely has more to prove. Hawaii’s offense is no joke, so this is a great opportunity to get better and prepare for a conference that will pass the ball just as much as Hawaii.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
The defense, more specifically, the secondary needs to have a good game because Hawaii is going to put them to the test with their passing attack. The offense will do its thing. It would be nice to have a more consistent running game.
Defining Success
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Question: What constitutes a successful game vs. Hawaii for you? Obviously, a victory is the No. 1 goal, but you will walk away from this game feeling confident about the Ducks if they do BLANK?
This needs to be another game where we get the benches cleared midway through the third quarter, allowing young players on the roster to get an opportunity for more experience. With the strength of the Pac-12 this season, there will not be many chances for second-half blowouts down the stretch, so the Ducks need to take care of business early and jump on that opportunity in this one.
I want to see consistent pressure to the QB on defense, as well as consistency in defending the pass. We saw both of those things against Texas Tech, but they often didn’t coincide. If the whole defense can be more consistent they’ll start to serve themselves well. If the Ducks want to reach their ceiling this year defense doesn’t need to become their top strength, but it definitely can’t be a liability, so best they solve their issues now rather than later.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
If this game is out of hand in the third quarter and Ty Thompson is in. Hawaii is going to score some, but they don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Ducks over 60 minutes.
Gambling Corner
Question: Let’s go to the gambling corner for the first time in the 2023 season. Right now, the betting spread for this game is set at Oregon minus-37.5, with an Over/Under of 68.5 points. If I were to give you $100 and allow you to allocate it any way you see fit on this game, where are you putting your money?
I feel confident this will be a blowout, but because of the Hawaii passing offense and some remaining concerns about Oregon’s secondary, I don’t quite feel comfortable laying 37.5 points. So instead, I’m going to take all $100 and put it on the over 68.5. I think Oregon can hit that number by themselves, so it feels like a safe bet.
This week, I’m splitting my Benjamin Franklin into two Ulysses Grants, putting one on Oregon to cover and the other on the over.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
37.5 is a lot of points, so I’ll put $40 on Hawaii to cover the $60 for the over.
Score Predictions
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Question: Okay, time for a score prediction. Who wins, and what is the final score?
Give me Oregon 63, Hawaii 20.
55-17, Ducks Win
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Oregon 52, Hawaii 17
