Ducks favored to win all but 2 games in 2023 season, per ESPN’s FPI
It may be incredibly early in the year to be making any bold predictions or proclamations; the Oregon Ducks haven’t even played their annual spring game yet. However, we’re in the business of predictions and analysis, so forgive us for looking ahead and trying to figure out how many games the Oregon Ducks are going to win in the 2023 season.
Once the schedule was released back in February, we looked at the matchups, the order in which they came, and the likelihood that the Ducks make it out of each week unscathed. Our end result was an incredibly impressive season for Dan Lanning and his team, which could put them in the Pac-12 Championship and potentially, in the College Football Playoff as well.
Our predictions were based on opinions and gathered information from talking to coaches, players, and team sources while watching practices every week.
Recently ESPN’s Football Power Index released their schedule predictions for every team in the nation, largely using numbers as the reasoning.
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is a ranking that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” Virtually, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percent chance to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
In short, they looked at Oregon’s 2023 schedule and predicted what percent chance the Ducks have to win each game. Throughout the year, the numbers will change based on past performance, injuries, and a whole myriad of variables that take place throughout the season.
Let’s take a look at what the numbers say this spring.
Week 1 vs. Portland State Vikings
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 99.0%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 52, Portland State 13
Analysis
Not a surprise that the Ducks are a massive favorite here in the opener against Portland State. It will be quite a different experience from playing Georgia a year ago.
Week 2 at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 51.2%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 31, Texas Tech 23
Analysis
Oregon’s favorability here is a bit lower than I would have expected. While Texas Tech is a good team, I think the Ducks have more talent across the board, and they should be healthy and hungry this early in the season.
Week 3 vs. Hawaii Warriors
Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 97.5%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 48, Hawaii 17
Analysis
Another game where Oregon deserves to be massive favorites. While Hawaii might put up more of a fight than Portland State, it shouldn’t be a close game between the Ducks and Warriors.
Week 4 vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 95.9%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 38, Colorado 14
Analysis
Oregon’s probability to win may be a bit higher here than some expected, with the talent that Deion Sanders has on the roster. However, I don’t think there’s much of a chance that Colorado upsets the Ducks. They have some nice pieces, but their depth is incredibly thin and sporadic across the board.
Week 5 vs. Stanford Cardinal
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 86.1%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 35, Stanford 10
Analysis
By all means, it looks like the first five games of the year for Oregon could go pretty smoothly, assuming that they can dispatch with Texas Tech in week 2, the toughest opponent on the front half of the schedule. Stanford fits in with the aforementioned teams; not talented enough to compete.
Week 7 at Washington Huskies
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 52.2%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 24, Washington 23
Analysis
This is undoubtedly one of the toughest games on the schedule for Oregon, but they are given the edge by ESPN, even on the road. Bo Nix vs. Michael Penix is going to be incredibly fun to watch, and the Ducks are going to be out for revenge after the way that last year’s matchup ended.
Week 8 vs. Washington State Cougars
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 89.7%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 42, Washington State 31
Analysis
The Ducks shouldn’t have too much trouble with the Cougars assuming they aren’t too banged up after what will be a physical matchup against Washington.
Week 9 at Utah Utes
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 39.4%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 33, Utah 28
Analysis
The first game on the schedule that the Ducks aren’t favored to win comes against Utah on the road. Oregon had a tight game with them a year ago, and it will definitely be more of a challenge to take down Cam Rising and the Utes down in Salt Lake City.
Week 10 vs. California Golden Bears
John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 84.5%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 24, California 10
Analysis
It’s nice that the tough games for Oregon are followed by relatively easy games. I don’t think that Cal should pose much of a threat to any of the top teams in the Pac-12 this season. The Ducks should be able to get healthy and pick up a relatively easy win here.
Week 11 vs. USC Trojans
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 45.5%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: USC 44, Oregon 35
Analysis
It feels interesting that the Utes are a bigger favorite over the Ducks than USC is. It’s likely due to the fact that this game is being played at Autzen Stadium, which gives Oregon a great chance to give the Trojans a real test.
Week 12 at Arizona State Sun Devils
Michael Chow-Arizona Republic
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 81.8%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 49, Arizona State 27
Analysis
Kenny Dillingham may be able to string together a few nice wins in his first year with the Sun Devils, but I don’t see Arizona State competing with the top schools in the conference. There will be too much emotion in this one for the Ducks to lose to their former offensive coordinator.
Week 13 vs. Oregon State Beavers
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 68.1%
Ducks Wire Score Prediction: Oregon 31, Oregon State 20
Analysis
I was a bit surprised by how big of a favorite the Ducks were here, according to ESPN. Oregon State is expected to be pretty good, and if QB D.J. Uiagalelei can get things going in Corvallis, they could make some noise in the Pac-12. It will be interesting to see how that percentage changes over the course of the season.
Analysis
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Favored in 10 games, and the underdog in two feels about right for the Ducks. I thought that it would be USC and Washington who were favored to beat the Ducks, but choosing USC and Utah makes sense as well. If this all comes to fruition as ESPN projects, Oregon should have a spot in the Pac-12 title game once the season comes to a close.
