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Dr. Diandra: Which winless drivers are most likely to clinch a playoff berth at Watkins Glen?

NBC Sports
·4 min read

Highlights: Cup Series qualifying at Watkins Glen

Watch highlights from the NASCAR Cup Series qualifying session at Watkins Glen International for the Go Bowling at The Glen.

With two races left in the regular season, Watkins Glen is the best chance for winless drivers like Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, A.J. Allmendinger and Daniel Suárez to make the playoffs. Poor qualifying efforts combined with no cautions at stage breaks makes this weekend an uphill climb for all of these drivers.

Not many metrics to rely on

Watkins Glen (3 p.m. ET Sunday on USA Network) is a seven-turn (plus the inner loop) road course with a 100-foot elevation change. The Cup Series has run only one race in the Next Gen car at Watkins Glen. Kyle Larson won that race, with Allmendinger, Joey Logano, Elliott and Suárez finishing in the top five.

One might expect those drivers to be at the top of the list for winning this race. But relying on those numbers is hazardous because some drivers’ performances changed significantly since last year.

  • Kyle Busch moved from Joe Gibbs Racing to Richard Childress Racing. His average on road courses improved from a 22.2 last year to 13.3 this year. He qualified ninth for Sunday's race.

  • Martin Truex Jr. improved 9.5 positions on road courses, from 17.8 to 8.33 as Toyota figured out the Next Gen car. Truex never finished a road course better than seventh in 2022. This year, he won Sonoma.

  • Larson went from a 19.7 average at road courses in 2022 to a 10.0 average. His 9.7-position improvement is the largest among full-time Cup Series drivers.

This disconnect between the past and the present means this year's road course performance and qualifying position for this race are the best metrics. The graph below shows the drivers with the top average finishing positions at road courses in 2023.

2023_RoadCourse_AverageFinishes2.png
2023_RoadCourse_AverageFinishes2.png

Chase Elliott

Elliott should be the favorite for this race. He’s good at road courses and Watkins Glen is one of his best. He won this race in 2018 and 2019, plus finished second and fourth in 2021 and 2022. (There was no Watkins Glen race in 2020.) In the last three Watkins Glen races, Elliott has a 2.3 average finish.

Although Elliott posted the seventh-best practice lap, he qualified back in the 15th position. Starting that far back in the field means that Elliott's best hope for a win is for this race to have cautions. Those breaks would allow him to use strategy and/or adjustments to move up in the field.

Alex Bowman

Bowman got his first top-five finish at Indianapolis since missing three races due to an accident. Before last week, he hadn’t finished higher than 12th since returning.

Despite his struggles, Bowman has performed well at road courses this year, with a third at COTA, a 15th at Sonoma and last week’s fifth-place finish. He’ll start 18th at Watkins Glen. Because it's too early to tell whether last week’s results suggest a return to Bowman’s pre-injury form or just a blip, I'd consider him a dark horse.

Daniel Suárez

Suarez won the pole and finished third at the Indianapolis road course. That, along with a sixth-place finish at Michigan the week before, was a welcome change in a disappointing season for him and Trackhouse Racing. He might have caught McDowell had it not been for a slow pit stop.

But Suárez struggled in practice, with the 23rd-fastest lap. He just missed making the second round of qualifying after a bobble killed what had looked to be a good lap. Suárez will start 14th. Like Elliott, he needs cautions and good fortune if he's going to make his way to the front.

A.J. Allmendinger

Allmendinger qualified sixth and laid down the best practice lap, but I hesitate to recommend him too strongly. His average road course finish declined from 12.3 last year to 26.0 this season, which is the third-worst drop among full-time drivers. The rest of his year has been rather spotty, with only one top-five finish and four top 10s.

Don't forget that there are 32 other drivers, including surprise 10th-place qualifier Corey LaJoie, who hope to get the checkered flag at Watkins Glen.