Does Obi Toppin fit in the Knicks' long-term plans?

For three years, the Knicks have had an Obi Toppin problem.

Despite being the team’s most recent lottery draft pick, Toppin has received scant playing time. In three seasons with the team, he’s never averaged more than 17.1 minutes in a season.

Now, there’s been a recent avalanche of trade rumors for the former No. 8 overall selection. As contract extension talks approach rapidly during the offseason, it only makes sense to reevaluate where Toppin fits in New York’s future plans of building a championship contender.

Earlier this week, The Athletic reported that Toppin and head coach Tom Thibodeau had an intense verbal altercation after New York’s Game 4 loss in the second round in May. The argument came after Toppin played just six minutes in the game.

There was no fallout from the incident and the two seemed to patch things up. Still, that frustration over playing time won’t just dissipate, even if the team does nice things such as adding Toppin’s younger brother Jacob on a two-way contract at the tail end of Thursday night’s draft.

It’s hard to tell where the backup power forward stands in New York’s rotation heading into next season. Toppin’s been stuck behind Julius Randle and though Randle has seen his name in trade rumors occasionally, he’s coming off a rebound season that saw him make the All-NBA third team. The Knicks won’t just get rid of him for the sake of it.

SNY’s Ian Begley said on Thursday that New York would only trade Toppin if it was clear that Toppin would not experience increased playing time.

If that’s the case, then Toppin’s future with New York is already decided. If Randle is healthy, then it’s hard to envision Toppin receiving a boost in minutes.

Thibodeau has long preferred having a traditional center capable of protecting the paint on the floor at all times. Centers Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein were on the floor for 518 of 528 possible minutes during the postseason.

The math behind that leaves only the power forward position where Randle led the league in minutes per game during the 2020-21 season and has finished in the top 20 in the category the past two seasons. Randle and Toppin played just seven minutes together in this postseason. Over three regular seasons, the duo has played together for just 212 combined minutes.

A player and team not in sync

Toppin’s style on the court is the antithesis of the Knicks’ playing style. New York plays at a snail’s pace. The team finished the season 25th in pace and 24th overall in percentage of points coming from the fast break (11 percent), per NBA Stats.

Toppin thrives in a fast-paced, open-court style of game. Last season, 22.9 percent of his points came via the fast break. Only Josh Hart (25 percent) relied on the fast break more to score on the Knicks.

Toppin would also fit in better with a team that relied on ball and player movement more. 90.9 percent of the 25-year-old’s field goals were assisted, the highest percentage of any of New York’s rotation players. He needs an offensive system or individual playmakers to set him up.

New York finished with the fourth-worst assist rate in the NBA last season. It’s a trend that won’t change anytime soon. Under Thibodeau, the Knicks have ranked 27th twice and 29th in assist rate in three seasons. It’s hard to score on assisted baskets when the team you're on doesn’t record many assists.

Though the limited room for playing time is a real problem at the center of the Toppin and Thibodeau conflict, the Knicks also don’t always put the young forward in the best positions to succeed when he’s on the floor. Toppin has spent countless moments stuck at the three-point line in the corner which is not his strength.

With those two concerns, it makes the most sense for New York to move on from Toppin and find a possible team and fit that works for his skill set.

Compensation—namely a first-round pick or including Toppin in a larger trade for a star—will always be a sore subject but the Knicks might have to make the decision to move Toppin even if the return isn’t ideal.