Advertisement

How did the Big Ten and Ohio State’s performance over the weekend impact the ESPN remaining game-by-game FPI predictions for the Buckeyes?

phil harrison
·4 min read

We like to follow along with whatever crazy formula ESPN uses to predict the Ohio State football games during the season. The worldwide leader in sports programming sausage doesn’t tell you what goes into what comes out the other end, but there’s product there and we’re consuming it.

For the first time last week, there was a team on Ohio State’s remaining schedule that was favored to beat it according to the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor, so that was eyebrow-raising noteworthy.

Then, this week happened. The Big Ten looked like a stale donut both in-league and across the college football landscape, so I’m sure you are wondering how all of that changed how things look now. Is that team (that just might happen to be up north) still favored to beat the Buckeyes, or did things self-correct a bit?

What about the rest of the 2021 schedule? Is Ohio State still favored to win the rest of the games after giving Akron a super wedgie on Saturday? Let’s get into it and see what the ESPN FPI matchup predictor says after Week 4.

Oct. 2 at Rutgers

LOOK: Ohio State is behind Rutgers in one computer poll. For real.
LOOK: Ohio State is behind Rutgers in one computer poll. For real.

Greg Schiano with Aron Cruickshank of Rutgers in the fourth quarter as Rutgers crushed Temple 61-14 in their season opener at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, NJ on September 4, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

SHI Stadium (Piscataway, New Jersey)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 76.1% (down from 79.6%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 7-0

Projected running record: 4-1

Oct. 9 vs. Maryland

Sep 17, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Maryland Terrapins wide receiver Dontay Demus jr. (7) catches a pass while defended by Illinois Fighting Illini defensive back Joriell Washington (10) in the second half. Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 87.4% (down from 90.5%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 6-0

Projected running record: 5-1

Oct. 23 at Indiana

Nov. 21, 2020; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Ty Fryfogle (3)makes the catch over Ohio State Buckeyes cornerback Shaun Wade (24) and eventually scored on the play during the third quarter at Ohio Stadium. Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 84.3% (down from 85.2%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 76-12-5

Projected running record: 6-1

Oct. 30 vs. Penn State

Penn State’s Brandon Smith almost comes up with an interception in the second quarter against Auburn at Beaver Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 18, 2021, in State College. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 73.2% (up from 70.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 21-14

Projected running record: 7-1

Nov. 6 at Nebraska

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Jonathon Cooper (18) chases down Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Adrian Martinez (2) during the third quarter of an NCAA Division I football game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday, September 28, 2019, at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska. [Joshua A. Bickel/Dispatch]

Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 71.9% (down from 74.5%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-1

Projected running record: 8-1

Nov. 13 vs. Purdue

Purdue defensive end George Karlaftis (5) tackles Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams (23) during the third quarter of an NCAA football game, Saturday, Sept. 18, 2021, at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 87.6% (down from 87.8%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 39-15-2

Projected running record: 9-1

Nov. 20 vs. Michigan State

Sep 3, 2021; Evanston, Illinois, USA; The Michigan State Spartans celebrate their win over the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. The Michigan State Spartans won 38-21. Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 76.2% (no change)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 34-15

Projected running record: 10-1

Nov. 27 at Michigan

Michigan Wolverines defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97), linebacker Josh Ross (12) and defensive tackle Christopher Hinton (15) get ready during second-half action against the Western Michigan Broncos Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Predicted Winner: Michigan
Buckeyes Win Probability: 46.9% (up from 46.3%)
All-Time Series: Michigan leads 58-51-6

Projected running record: 10-2

[listicle id=61884]

[vertical-gallery id=61832]

1

1