If Diamondbacks trade an outfielder, who is most likely to move?

SAN DIEGO — A little less than a week ago, Diamondbacks General Manager Mike Hazen framed the possibility of trading one of his talented young outfielders as roughly a 50/50 proposition.

Those odds make a trade seem fairly likely, particularly coming from a GM who often remarks on the difficulty of deal-making. Hazen seems to be getting the sense that rival teams value his players the way he values them, and with so many clubs in need of a center fielder, that would seem to pave the way for something to eventually get done.

The Diamondbacks believe that moving one of their outfielders would help them arrive more quickly on a path toward contention — that is, as long as a trade from their depth would allow them to plug one or more holes on their roster.

But which of those outfielders — Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas and Daulton Varsho — is the most likely to be dealt?

With the winter meetings in full swing here on Monday at the Manchester Grand Hyatt, here is an attempt to forecast the likelihood of each of those four being moved.

Corbin Carroll: 100/1 odds

This could be one of those propositions that Las Vegas oddsmakers would take off the board given how unlikely it is to occur.

It seems the Diamondbacks like pretty much everything about Carroll, from his performance on the field to his work ethic, maturity, intelligence, et al. He is one of the mostly highly regarded prospects in baseball, someone whom scouts envision playing in multiple All-Star Games and contending for major awards.

Hazen has always said he listens on everyone because it is his responsibility to do so, but it is almost impossible to imagine another team making the kind of offer that would be necessary to compel the Diamondbacks to say yes.

Jake McCarthy: 6/1 odds

This one feels a little less likely in large part because the Diamondbacks might value him differently than other clubs.

McCarthy has never had sky-high prospect cache. His tools, outside of his speed, are not especially loud. His batted-ball data doesn’t impress. As such, he might not be the kind of player a rival team would back up to the truck to acquire.

On the flip, there are a lot of things to like about him — things the Diamondbacks hold in high esteem. He has an adaptable swing that allows him to make a lot of contact. He seems to have the ability to make adjustments based on how he is being pitched. He is fearless on the bases, playing the game with a sort of pedal-to-the-metal zeal. It is the kind of stuff the Diamondbacks want to see from all of their players.

All of which is to say, he might mean more to the Diamondbacks than he would to another team — at least at this point in his career.

Daulton Varsho: 4/1 odds

The thing that makes Varsho so difficult for the Diamondbacks to trade is the same thing that might make him more appealing than the others: He is the most established of the bunch.

If a team that is in need of a center fielder has an immediate window for contending, it would make sense to acquire the most proven option possible.

Of course, the Diamondbacks themselves are looking to contend — and taking Varsho out of the picture would be a risky move, putting more pressure on McCarthy and Thomas to perform.

As a player with two-plus seasons of experience, Varsho has four years of club control remaining, making him the closest to free agency. Arbitration eligible for the first time this winter, he is about to become more expensive, as well.

From an on-field perspective, Varsho’s batting average and on-base abilities have left something to be desired, and he struggled this year against left-handed pitching. However, Varsho has demonstrated he has power (27 home runs this season) and there is no debating how good he was defensively, looking like he could be a perennial candidate to be a Gold Glove outfielder.

As such, Varsho would figure to bring back plenty in a trade.

Alek Thomas: 3/1 odds

Thomas might be slightly more likely to be moved because he is not yet established. He played Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field — like Varsho, he was a finalist for an award but did not win — but struggled offensively over the final three months of the season.

That, though, is not unusual. Most young hitters struggle early in their major-league careers. Varsho, for example, was a far worse hitter for the first 200 or so at-bats of his career.

And there are a lot of things that are appealing about Thomas. He is a graceful athlete. He has twitchy, explosive actions. He showed throughout his minor league career — and for stretches in the majors — the ability to barrel balls with authority to all fields, in particular the left-center field gap.

And his defense is so good that his floor is relatively high. Even if he isn’t an impact bat, he’s not nothing, meaning there is an appeal not just for the win-now clubs but for those eyeing the future, as well.

Thomas has six full years of club control remaining, which only increases his value.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: If Diamondbacks trade an outfielder, who is most likely to move?