DFS Week 5: Thursday night picks for Rams-Seahawks
By Jeff Hicks, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
Yahoo has expanded their daily fantasy football options with a single-game option, with a roster construction of one ‘Superstar’ that scores at 1.5 times while the remaining four spots accumulate points at the normal rate. This is half-point PPR scoring and the ‘Superstar’ salary does not change from the Utility. All scoring and rules can be found here.
It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players who can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players that could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.
Vegas Total and Spread
The Rams are 2.5-point road favorites with an Over/Under of 54 points. Los Angeles has an implied team total of 28.25 points while Seattle’s implied team total is 25.75 points.
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Potential Game Flow Scenarios
Things you love to see: two teams with bottom-half defenses stuck playing on a short week. The Rams and Seahawks are ranked in the lower 16 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to every offensive position. This is great for L.A. and not as much Seattle. The Seahawks are already without their rookie WR D'Wayne Eskridge (concussion) and are on the verge of playing without Chris Carson ($23, neck) and Gerald Everett ($12, COVID-19 protocols). Carson’s neck injury has lingered and is considered a long-term issue which is awful from career and lifestyle perspectives. Alex Collins ($15) would step into a large workload that has already resulted in him getting three of 10 Seattle red-zone carries and has seen his snap count rise each of the past three weeks. Collins is fifth in standard points and 11th in full-point PPR points per snap (min. 25% of team’s carries).
The only position that the Rams are worse at defending is tight end. Everett’s health carries more weight as DK Metcalf ($25), Tyler Lockett ($25), and Freddie Swain ($13) battle outside with three of the top 60 cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus. Jalen Ramsey should see a lot of Lockett with David Long Jr. and Darious Williams against Metcalf. Russell Wilson ($33) had his best passing yards and second-best rushing yards total of 2021 in his only home start Week 2 against Tennessee. The Titans have been pegged as a secondary to justly target but they rank only one spot behind the Rams in quarterback aFPA. Wilson has not cooked like we saw to open this season as his yards per attempt and yards per reception have dipped each of the past two weeks. If Carson/Collins cannot help drive the offense down the field, Russ will be in position to break the downward trend with the Rams offense clicking.
Matthew Stafford ($34) has alternated good games with okay games with 7:0 TD/INT splits in the good, and 4:2 splits in the okay performances. As good as the Rams' secondary has been, the Seahawks' corners have been as bad. Only D.J. Reed Jr. is rated in the top 80 at CB on PFF. Cooper Kupp ($37) has made Stafford’s adjustment to the Rams smoother than a breakfast smoothie shared between the two, and Robert Woods ($19) is lurking as one of the most versatile receivers in football. Despite being outplayed by Arizona in all facets, Stafford showed trust in Van Jefferson Jr. ($13) who was the team’s leading receiver as the Cardinals focused on Woods and Kupp. The Seahawks have allowed at least 115 receiving yards or a touchdown to opposing receivers each week.
That does not include allowing double-digit yards per catch to the tight end position each of the past three weeks. Tyler Higbee ($16) is tied with Jefferson for targets per game and is seeing a target on 8.4% of snaps. That mark is one of the lowest on the team but Higbee has played 88% of snaps.
Darrell Henderson Jr. ($23) has kept the Rams level as the team’s lead back. He has played 84% of snaps when active and is third on the team in points per snap. He is the clear lead back with Sony Michel ($14) getting buried last week due to a fumble and game script. Kupp has been L.A.’s best weapon one month into the season, but the offense would stall without Henderson’s versatility. Seattle is 28th in running back aFPA.
Close, low-scoring game
Russell Wilson
Chris Carson, Alex Collins
Tyler Lockett
Seahawks defense
Darrell Henderson, Sony Michel
Cooper Kupp
Rams defense
Close, high-scoring game
Russell Wilson
Chris Carson, Alex Collins
DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Matthew Stafford
Darrell Henderson
Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods
Tyler Higbee
Blowout for home team
Russell Wilson
Chris Carson, Alex Collins
DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Freddie Swain
Gerald Everett
Seahawks defense
Matthew Stafford
Darrell Henderson
Cooper Kupp
Blowout for road team
Matthew Stafford
Darrell Henderson, Sony Michel
Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Van Jefferson, DeSean Jackson
Tyler Higbee
Rams defense
Russell Wilson
DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
[Play in Yahoo's $150K Single Game Baller for LAR vs. SEA]
Cheap/Unique Stacking Option
Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate
Matthew Stafford ($34), Robert Woods ($19), Van Jefferson Jr. ($13), and Freddie Swain ($13)
Only two defenses allow more fantasy points per game than the Seahawks. This stack gets you the "squeaky wheel' narrative and deep targets on the Rams, as well as Wilson’s safety valve if Everett is out. Swain has the lowest average target depth among Seahawks receivers but the third-most targets and air yards. In terms of shorter yard passes, Swain out-targeted and outgained TE Will Dissly ($10) with Everett out in Week 4.
Low-Priced Volatile Plays
Will Dissly ($10)
No Everett would put Dissly in play as a dart throw. Dissly goes from the sixth-most difficult matchup for tight ends in Week 4 to the fifth-easiest in Week 5.
Travis Homer ($10)
Chris Carson would get targets but if the game goes sideways for Seattle, Homer would be the pass-catching back. Alex Collins has two catches on two targets.
DeSean Jackson ($12)
Jackson’s yardage totals in three games this season are 21, 120, and 6. He is only playing 25% of snaps but unsurprisingly leads the team in average target depth.
Sony Michel ($14)
Darrell Henderson is one hit to the ribs away from being sidelined.
Superstar Picks
Darrell Henderson ($23)
Henderson flirted with 20 total touches in his Week 4 return and has a top-five matchup among all running backs.
Robert Woods ($19)
Kupp is in play at the Superstar spot, but I want to differentiate. Woods got the garbage time touchdown last week and made a left turn onto #NarrativeStreet.
DK Metcalf ($25)
Jalen Ramsey living in the slot is the best news of the week for Metcalf. He has topped 15 yards per catch in three of four weeks.
Alex Collins ($15)
This is a play only if Carson is ruled out. Divisional games are unpredictable let alone on a short week.
Russell Wilson ($33)
Yahoo’s salary has Wilson $1 less than Stafford matters. Pair that with his rushing upside (three-plus carries each week in 2021) and only Seattle’s second home game and Russ may be making a late-night meal for DFS players.
This article originally appeared in its full form on 4for4.comJeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur level for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.
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