Fields leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards (1,011) and is second in rushing attempts (15) and touchdowns (eight). This week, he faces a Detroit defense that has given up more rushing yards and touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks than any other team. The Chicago/Detroit game also has a total that is four points higher than any other game this week.
The second-highest total belongs to the Green Bay/Minnesota game. As slight favorites, the Packers hold the third-highest team total of the main slate at 25.75 points.
Rodgers also gets a defense that ranks 24th in dropback EPA per play over the second half of the season.
Paying for a cheap or mid-range quarterback to save up for expensive running backs looks like the popular play this week. Instead, why not flip the script with the NFL's leader in:
EPA per play - .315
Passing yards per game - 315
Touchdowns per game - 2.5
Mahomes tossed three scores with 352 yards the last time he faced the Broncos. A loss all but eliminates the Chiefs from getting a first-round bye, so expect to see them at their best in Week 17.
With White as their quarterback, the Jets have averaged an additional 13 plays with a pass rate over expected that jumps by three percent. They also post more total yards and points by a laughable margin.
These splits also held true in the 2021 season. Using White as a pivot off of the chalky Goff stacks is a great way to build a lineup that still saves money at quarteback.
Since Week 13, Etienne has seen 86 percent of the Jaguars' running back carries and 81 percent of the team's red zone attempts. He ranks sixth in overall attmpets (71) over that span. This week, he gets a Houston defense that leads the league in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns allowed. He is also a four-point favorite.
McCaffrey's elite role, no matter where he plays, gives him the best combination of floor and ceiling outcomes every week.
This counter is up to 35 games. McCaffrey ranks 10th in rushing attempts and yards on the year. He is second in nearly every receiving category, including targets, catches, and yards.
Allgeier saw 62 percent of the Falcons' running back carries last week. His cut of the backfield has risen in back-to-back weeks, culminating in a 22-touch outing in Week 16. He gets an Arizona defense that ranks 21st in rush EPA per play allowed this week. The Falcons are also favored by 3.5 points and play at home.
Playing the Minnesota/Green Bay game through Cook without a Packers run-back, maybe even with the Minnesota defense, will be an extremely contrarian way to approach one of the two most popular contests of the week. The Packers rank 31st in EPA per rush allowed. Cook is top-10 in carries, yards, missed tackles forced, and yards after contact this year.
The two cash-game receivers have been the same players in this article in three of the past four weeks. DraftKings refuses to price either like the elite players they are, so we'll keep jamming them. Since Week 8, St. Brown ranks top-five in targets, red zone targets, and PPR points. He is the focal point of a passing attack facing the No. 32 defense in dropback EPA allowed.
If you'll indulge me, here is one more split involving Mike White.
Unsurprisingly, the rising tide of White at quarterback lifts all boats. Wilson earned a 24 percent target share and a 38 percent air yards share in his three starts. Still underpriced, he will be a popular option to secure loads of volume at receiver, though pairing him with his quarterback will be far more unique.
The other pay-down option at quarterback I want to target this week is Gardner Minshew, assuming Jalen Hurts sits. Minshew ranked fourth in EPA per play (.29) and seventh in CPOE (6.3) last week. He targeted Smith early and often, fueling the speedy receiver to a 35 percent target share on 12 looks in the passing game.
You know the drill. JuJu runs nearly all of the routes on an offense led by Patrick Mahomes. Sometimes that results in a lot of fantasy points. He has finished as a top-eight receiver on the entire week three times this year. If we're firing up Mahomes again, Smith-Schuster should come along for the ride in some lineups.
Kelce is on pace for 1,425 receiving yards this year. That would break the record of 1,416…that he set in 2020. Kelce isn't going to set the record for touchdowns by a tight end—barring five scores in the final two weeks—but he can give himself sole possession of the third-most scores in a season by a tight end. He needs to find the end zone two more times for that feat.
With Fields drawing plenty of eyes in tournaments, Kmet is the natural stacking option. He fills the tight end positions and has a 25 percent target share since Week 12. The Lions also rank 31st in dropback EPA per play allowed.
Conklin has played on at least 70 percent of the Jets' snaps in nine consecutive games. If you're playing White at quarterback, why not tack on his $2,900 tight end on DraftKings?
Goedert returned to the lineup last week and immediately reclaimed his full-time role. He ran a route on 88 percent of Gardner Minshew's dropbacks, securing all three of his targets for 67 yards. Goedert leads all tight ends (min. 30 targets) in yards after the catch per reception and is second in yards per route run.