Detroit Tigers might be closer to reaching the postseason than most people expect
PHOENIX — Don't bank on the Detroit Tigers to be in the 2024 World Series.
But the Tigers, led by president of baseball operations Scott Harris, are following some of the same philosophies that propelled the Arizona Diamondbacks into the postseason. The Diamondbacks advanced to the postseason — beating industry expectations of their trajectory by at least one year — and took down the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies to reach the 2023 World Series.
The Diamondbacks, two seasons removed from 110 losses, have a chance to outwit the heavy-hitting, big-spending Texas Rangers for their first World Series championship since 2001.
"I'm picking up on that vibe," Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters before Game 1 of the World Series. "We're getting some respect, and I like that."
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The similarities between the Tigers under Harris' philosophy and the Diamondbacks under general manager Mike Hazen's philosophy, both operating as mid-market franchises, are a positive sign for Detroit's immediate future. It doesn't guarantee the Tigers will be World Series-bound, but it's a reminder that the postseason is attainable.
There are examples in style of play and roster construction.
The Diamondbacks have suffocated their postseason opponents with athleticism, defense and preparation. The Tigers hovered around the middle of the league in all-around defense, and they're actively trying to improve the athleticism of their roster.
Arizona's hitters appear to be strategizing at an elite level in the postseason, practically on a count-by-count basis, to predict the most likely pitch. The Diamondbacks, likely as a result of their daily advance scouting, performed significantly better against starting pitchers compared to relief pitchers on their journey to the World Series.
The Tigers, likewise, implemented new strategies for their offense under Harris' watch in the 2023 season. Often, former No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson talked about trying to eliminate a specific pitch from the starting pitcher in order to focus on a different pitch while taking advantage of in-zone mistakes. He hit 31 home runs in 159 games during his sophomore season, with 26 in his final 97 games.
Maybe the Tigers, with all due respect to the D-backs, are closer to the postseason than the industry expects.
After all, the D-backs won 84 games in the 2023 regular season.
The Tigers won 78 games.
'Smart baseball decisions'
To reach the postseason, the Tigers need to continue doing what Harris has been preaching from the beginning of his tenure as Detroit's president of baseball operations.
"I don't believe in strict five-year plans," Harris said Sept. 20, 2022, at his introductory news conference. "I think if we keep our heads down, we make smart baseball decisions, we string one after another together through winters and trade deadlines and draft opportunities and international signing opportunities, we're going to look up and have a darn good baseball team. That's my intent from Day 1, and that will remain my intent through my tenure here."
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Let's look at some of the most notable "smart baseball decisions" in Year 1 of Harris:
Trading right-handed reliever Joe Jiménez to the Atlanta Braves in December 2022 for outfield prospect Justyn-Henry Malloy and left-handed reliever Jake Higginbotham. (This trade was all about dumping a soon-to-expire contract for a controllable position player. One year later, the Tigers could sign Jiménez, who had a 3.04 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 56⅓ innings with the Braves, as a free agent this offseason, while also having Malloy — one of the best hitters at the Triple-A level — on their MLB roster for at least the next six seasons.)
Trading left-handed reliever Gregory Soto and utility player Kody Clemens to the Philadelphia Phillies in January 2023 for outfielder/third baseman Matt Vierling, infielder Nick Maton and catcher Donny Sands. (Forget about Maton, Sands and Clemens. This trade was all about leveraging a hard-throwing reliever with the closer tag to acquire a position player who won't become a free agent until after the 2027 season and could unlock his power potential. Even if Vierling is nothing more than a fourth outfielder and backup third baseman, he had a 99 wRC+ and was worth 1.2 fWAR in 2023 compared to Soto's 0.9 fWAR and ugly performances in the postseason.)
Claiming infielder Andy Ibáñez in November 2022 and left-handed reliever Tyler Holton in February 2023 off waivers from the Rangers and Diamondbacks, respectively. (The Tigers will continue to claim a lot of players off waivers and sign a lot of players to minor-league contracts. Not flashy moves, but if Harris didn't obsess about the low-risk, under-the-radar opportunities to get better, the Tigers probably wouldn't have Holton or Ibáñez on their roster.)
Trading right-hander Michael Lorenzen — who signed a one-year, $8.5 million contract and took his pitching performance to the next level — to the Phillies in August 2023 for infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee. (The Tigers outlined a vision for Lorenzen and taught him to execute the vision. In doing so, the Tigers boosted Lorenzen's value and traded him for a controllable 20-year-old position player. Lee, who joined the High-A affiliate after the trade, has displayed an advanced approach, high contract rates and the ability to play several positions.)
The most important "smart baseball decisions" happened in player development department, such as teaching Holton to throw a slider, tweaking Reese Olson's pitch mix and adjusting Sawyer Gipson-Long's changeup grip. Pitching prospect Jackson Jobe, who posted a 2.81 ERA in 16 starts, improved his changeup while learning a cutter. Infield prospect Jace Jung, who launched 28 home runs in 128 games, changed the positioning of his hands and revamped his approach. Outfield prospect Justice Bigbie, who hit .343 with 19 homers in 115 games, burst onto the scene by climbing three levels to reach Triple-A Toledo.
Another example: Brady Allen, a 24-year-old outfielder acquired from the Miami Marlins for 31-year-old center fielder Jonathan Davis, might never play for the Tigers, but if he does, it will be because he crushes left-handed pitching. He had a .913 OPS against lefties at the High-A and Double-A levels in 2023.
All good teams make smart decisions, both big and small.
Some of the smart decisions in Arizona's process: trading for Ketel Marte in 2016, claiming Christian Walker off waivers in 2017, signing Merrill Kelly in 2018, trading (Jazz Chisholm Jr.) for Zac Gallen in 2019, signing ex-Tiger Joe Mantiply (to a minor-league contract) in 2020, trading for Gabriel Moreno/Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in 2022 and trading for Paul Sewald in 2023.
For the Diamondbacks, the roster construction has been a healthy mix of homegrown talent and shrewd acquisitions.
"Our player development people do a really good job raising our players, quite frankly," Hazen told reporters before Game 1 of the World Series. "We put a lot of effort into developing them all the way through, from the second they get here to their families, to understanding who they are and trying to pour every ounce of energy into making them the best they can be."
An example of a bad decision, though, is the five-year, $85 million contract signed by left-hander Madison Bumgarner before the 2020 season, only for the Diamondbacks to cut him and eat the final $34 million of his salary. Another example: None of the three players acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in the Paul Goldschmidt trade are still with the Diamondbacks.
No team is perfect.
The Tigers, meanwhile, missed out on the chance to inject multiple prospects into their organization when left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez invoked his 10-team no-trade clause to block an agreed-upon deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers at the 2023 trade deadline. (One of six players acquired in the J.D. Martinez and Justin Verlander trades in 2017 remains with the Tigers: catcher Jake Rogers.)
'Taking baby steps'
Most of the players on the Diamondbacks' World Series roster were signed and developed within the past five years. The Tigers, like the Diamondbacks, will be proactive in giving runway to their young players in the big leagues rather than jeopardizing their paths to playing time with expensive external additions.
Harris will spend to complement a core, not to build a core.
Entering this offseason, homegrown players projected to be on the Tigers' 2024 Opening Day roster include Torkelson, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, Colt Keith, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, Casey Mize and Jason Foley. All of those players were signed under former general manager Al Avila and won't become free agents for many years. The Tigers have been adding talented young players, only struggling to develop them until recently, since 2017.
"It's just taking baby steps," Greene said in late September. "I feel like we are trending in the right direction. It's not going to happen overnight, but we're definitely trending in the right direction."
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The foundation of in-house players was an advantage for Harris upon his arrival in September 2022, but the presence of struggling shortstop Javier Báez created a disadvantage. The Tigers, just like the D-backs with Bumgarner, might need to eat a portion of Báez's salary (four years, $98 million remaining) at some point in the future.
One final comparison — Max Clark and Corbin Carroll, both left-handed hitting center fielders drafted out of high school — is something the Tigers are aware of and excited about.
The Diamondbacks selected Carroll with the No. 16 overall pick in the 2019 draft; the Tigers selected Clark with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2023 draft.
The process of drafting those players were similar for both Harris and Hazen because there are a lot of similarities between Clark and Carroll. They share the same multi-dimensional tools, except Clark was more advanced than Carroll on their respective draft days.
Carroll played 42 games in 2019, missed the 2020 season because of the COVID-19 pandemic and was limited to seven games in 2021 due to a torn labrum. He didn't play for almost two seasons and still made his MLB debut in late August 2022.
In 2023, Carroll signed a contract extension and is the favorite to win National League Rookie of the Year.
Clark has a long ways to go, but considering Carroll's development path and the fact that Clark is already stronger with a bigger frame, the Tigers' top prospect could be ready for his MLB debut at some point during the 2025 season.
Imagine Clark joining Torkelson, Greene, Carpenter, Keith, Meadows, Malloy, Jung, Rogers and Dillon Dingler in the lineup, with Skubal, Olson, Mize and Jobe anchoring the starting rotation.
That could be an incredible core of young players.
The Tigers are probably a couple of years away from consistent contention, at least based on industry expectations, but the Diamondbacks getting into the postseason and advancing to the World Series is a reminder to all mid-market teams that expectations can be exceeded with the correct philosophy.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers may be closer to MLB postseason than most people expect
