Detroit Tigers 2024 roster prediction 3.0: Are the 13 position players already locked in?

LAKELAND, Fla. — The first spring training game is in the books.

The Detroit Tigers walked 14 batters, and hit five more, in a 22-10 loss to the New York Yankees at Joker Marchant Stadium in an ugly first game, but there are 32 games — including four split-squads — remaining on the Grapefruit League schedule.

The clock is ticking toward Opening Day. In 32 days, the Tigers will clash with the Chicago White Sox. It's scheduled for March 28 at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago.

ROSTER PREDICTION 1.0: Newcomers fill big roles, but holes still exist

ROSTER PREDICTION 2.0: Five new players acquired before New Year's Day

Here's a look at our third version of how the Tigers should fill their 26-man Opening Day roster for the 2024 season, following the first game in spring training:

Catcher: Jake Rogers

Rogers is the starter, but he has something to prove. He hit .221 with 21 home runs, 28 walks and 118 strikeouts in 107 games as part of his breakthrough last season. The 28-year-old needs to repeat as a 20-homer player, and if he can increase his batting average and walk rate, he will become an even more valuable catcher. His defense is already above average across the board.

Rogers, who missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, has hit 27 home runs in 145 games during the 2021 and 2023 seasons. That's an average of 30 homers per 162 games.

MORE ABOUT HIM: How Tigers' Jake Rogers became 'what everybody is looking for' at catcher position

First base: Spencer Torkelson

Torkelson, the 2020 No. 1 overall pick, silenced the critics with powerful swings last season, launching 34 doubles and 31 home runs across 159 games while hitting .233. The 24-year-old would benefit from putting more balls in play, but that should happen as he continues his development as a hitter into his third MLB season. The other area for growth is defense, especially on groundballs that test his range to his right.

Torkelson has a track record of getting better based on his growth from 2022 to 2023. He should take another step forward — offensively and defensively — in 2024. He put in the work on both sides of the ball with hitting coach Michael Brdar throughout the offseason.

MORE ABOUT HIM: How Tigers' Spencer Torkelson developed a thick skin to his own voice

Second base: Colt Keith

There was never any doubt Keith would be the Opening Day second baseman, but the 22-year-old locked in his role when he signed a long-term contract before his MLB debut. The terms of the contract could keep him with the Tigers through the 2032 season. Now the pressure is on for Keith to live up to the contract.

Keith has raked at every level of the minor leagues with smart swing decisions. He hit .325 with 14 home runs across 59 games for Double-A Erie last season, followed by .287 with 13 home runs across 67 games for Triple-A Toledo. The biggest unknown is whether Keith will stick at second base.

MORE ABOUT HIM: It wasn't a walk in the park, but Tigers' Colt Keith showed why he'll be special

Shortstop: Javier Báez

Nobody needs a bounce-back season more than Báez. He hit .230 with 26 home runs across 280 games in his first two seasons with the Tigers. He particularly struggled against fastballs last season, leading to an abysmal .222 batting average with nine home runs in 136 games. If he performs like his All-Star seasons of the past, he would be the best player on the Tigers' roster.

Báez is always going to struggle with down-and-away sliders, but he strengthened his back and core muscles in the offseason. A stronger foundation should help the 31-year-old be on time for fastballs with his aggressive swing like he was throughout his mid-20s.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Javier Báez thinks stronger back, core muscles can help revive his career

Third base: Gio Urshela

Urshela signed a one-year, $1.5 million contract — just two days before spring training games — after a pelvic fracture limited him to 62 games last season. The 32-year-old is going to start at third base against left-handed pitchers, but he will be first in line for opportunities to start against right-handed pitchers. If he hits against righties, he should become an everyday third baseman.

In 2022, Urshela played a career-high 144 games and was an everyday player for the Minnesota Twins. In 2019, Urshela played 132 games and was an everyday player for the New York Yankees. He is coming off a major injury, but he has been an everyday player before. Urshela is a .290 hitter against lefties and a .272 hitter against righties in his career.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Can newcomer Gio Urshela become everyday third baseman for Tigers in 2024 season?

Outfield: Mark Canha (LF), Parker Meadows (CF), Riley Greene (RF)

Meadows, a left-handed hitter, is the everyday center fielder and projects to provide elite defense. The 24-year-old should start against both right-handed pitchers and left-handed pitchers to begin the season, but if he struggles to hit against lefties, the Tigers can put Matt Vierling in center field for those matchups.

The biggest question is whether Greene will play right field or left field, or if he will play both corner outfield positions. The 23-year-old profiles as an elite performer in left field because of his athleticism, but since he isn't as good on balls in play toward the first-base side of his position, which would be to the spacious left-center field in Comerica Park, he might fit better in right field. If that happens, though, Kerry Carpenter would need to have almost all of his outfield reps in left field.

Canha, 35, is capable of playing both corner positions.

Health has been an issue with Greene, but he visited a new trainer and gained 10 pounds in the offseason while recovering from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow. He will improve his chances of staying healthy if he maintains his strength.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Riley Greene bulks up in offseason, says he's 'ready to go' after surgery

Designated hitter: Kerry Carpenter

The ceiling for Carpenter hasn't been determined, which makes him an interesting player to track. The 26-year-old hit .278 with 20 home runs across 118 games last season, but across his 149-game MLB career, he has averaged 28 homers per 162 games. Meanwhile, Carpenter has improved on defense in right field in each of the past two seasons.

He raked in a 78-game stretch from June 9 through Sept. 8 last season, hitting .317 with 16 home runs — an average of 33 homers per 162 games. It's unlikely he maintains that type of production for an entire season, specifically from a batting average standpoint, but he should be able to launch north of 25 homers if he stays healthy.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers slugger Kerry Carpenter proves himself as 'a solution' in long-term plan

Bench: Carson Kelly (C), Matt Vierling (UTIL), Andy Ibáñez (UTIL), Zach McKinstry (UTIL)

For now, the bench roles could be locked in.

The playing time, however, will be determined by the performance of the players throughout spring training and the season. Take Urshela and Vierling as an example: If Vierling hits better against right-handed pitchers, he will get more opportunities at third base, but if Urshela hits better against righties, he will get more opportunities. Likewise, if Keith struggles to hit against left-handed pitchers, Ibáñez will play second base against lefties. There are several other scenarios to consider, such as Meadows against lefties.

MORE ABOUT HIM: After 448-foot grand slam, Tigers' Matt Vierling shares 'get-ready-early' adjustment

McKinstry, meanwhile, is a left-handed hitter — unlike Ibáñez, Urshela and Vierling — who plays above-average defense in the infield and outfield, but he needs to improve on offense. He provides an added benefit as the backup shortstop behind Báez.

Injuries could change how the Tigers construct the bench, so don't forget about infielder Ryan Kreidler, outfielder/designated hitter Justyn-Henry Malloy, and outfielder Akil Baddoo. Kreidler is the best defensive infielder in the organization.

Starting rotation: Tarik Skubal (LHP), Kenta Maeda (RHP), Jack Flaherty (RHP), Matt Manning (RHP), Reese Olson (RHP), Casey Mize (RHP)

A lot can happen in the next month.

Skubal, Maeda and Flaherty are locked in, so the Tigers have decisions to make about Manning, Olson and Mize. All three of them could make the Opening Day rotation, with Olson and Mize working in tandem, or one of the three could get sent to Triple-A Toledo.

MORE ABOUT HIM: No games for Tigers' Casey Mize in 21 months. He 'can't wait' for real competition

What probably happens is one of the six starting pitchers suffers an injury in spring training, but if everyone stays healthy and performs well, all six would deserve to be on the roster.

The Tigers won't employ a six-man rotation, though.

Bullpen: Jason Foley (RHP), Alex Lange (RHP), Andrew Chafin (LHP), Shelby Miller (RHP), Tyler Holton (LHP), Will Vest (RHP), Joey Wentz (LHP)

The construction of the bullpen will be determined by whether the Tigers decide to carry five or six traditional starters on the roster. If five, there will be eight relievers. If six, there will be seven relievers.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Will Jason Foley's plan for left-handed troubles push him to Tigers' closer role?

The Tigers are counting on Foley, Lange, Chafin, Miller and Holton to lead the bullpen, with Vest also expected to be in that mix. The final spot — or two spots — will come down to Wentz, right-hander Beau Brieske, right-hander Alex Faedo, right-hander Miguel Díaz and right-hander Trey Wingenter.

Wentz has value as a left-hander who can cover multiple innings, but he doesn't have any minor-league options remaining, so he would need to clear waivers before going to Triple-A. Not having any options helps his chances of making the roster as long as his pitch metrics receive a boost in his new relief role.

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers roster prediction: Are the position players locked in?