Detroit Tigers' 2024 payroll projections: Javier Báez's $25 million could be only big deal

Detroit Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris doesn't have any complaints or concerns about the finances as he enters his second offseason.

Harris works for Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch, formally known as the CEO and chairman, and is tasked with building a winning team that's sustainable for years to come.

"I understand that there are going to be a lot of questions about the payroll number, spending, resources, all of that," Harris said. "Respectfully, I don't think that's necessarily the right question here. I feel like we have plenty of resources and plenty of flexibility. For me, the question is, what's the path to contention?"

The Tigers opened the 2023 season with a $122 million payroll, 19th among 30 teams. On 2024 Opening Day, the Tigers' payroll will likely be under $100 million for the first time since 2021 and the second time since 2007, not including the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

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In 2023, Detroit finished with a 78-84 record for second place in the American League Central.

"Recent history in this game will tell you that some organizations have either overestimated their proximity to contention," Harris said, "or they have tried to take a shortcut to contention by spending heavily in free agency, and it hasn't worked, it hasn't pushed them forward. In fact, in some cases, it set them back."

Here's a look at the Tigers' payroll ahead of Harris' second offseason:

Guaranteed contracts

The Tigers don't have any fully guaranteed contract commitments for the 2024 season at the onset of the offseason.

Total: $0 million.

One guaranteed contract will come onto the books Nov. 6, five days after the World Series, when shortstop Javier Báez officially picks up his player option to collect $98 million over the final four seasons of his six-year, $140 million contract.

Báez, a former All-Star and World Series champion, will make $25 million in 2024, $25 million in 2025 and $24 million in 2026 and $24 million in 2027.

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At this time last year, four guaranteed contracts — Miguel Cabrera's $32 million, Báez's $22 million, Eduardo Rodriguez's $14 million and Jonathan Schoop's $7.5 million — totaled more than $75 million and ended up accounting for more than 60% of the 2023 Opening Day payroll.

There probably won't be as much guaranteed payment in 2024.

Player options

Javier Báez: $25 million.

Eduardo Rodriguez: $18 million.

Total: $43 million.

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Báez and Rodriguez, initially signed to contracts by former general manager Al Avila in the 2021-22 offseason, will have to decide Nov. 6 whether to stay with the Tigers or become free agents. They're in completely different situations, despite both having opt-out clauses, because of their performances in the 2023 season.

Báez, who turns 31 in December, hit .222 with nine home runs in 136 games, marking the worst season of his 10-year MLB career. Rodriguez, who turns 31 in April, posted a 3.30 ERA over 152⅔ innings in 26 starts, arguably the second-best season of his eight-year MLB career.

Although Báez is expected to opt in, Rodriguez is expected to opt out of the remaining three years, $49 million of his five-year, $77 million contract with the Tigers.

Club options

Carson Kelly: $3.5 million.

Total: $3.5 million.

The Arizona Diamondbacks — runner-up to the Texas Rangers in the World Series — released Kelly in August. The Tigers picked him up and signed him for the remainder of the 2023 season with a $3.5 million team option for 2024.

Kelly hit .173 with one home run, seven walks and 17 strikeouts in 18 games with the Tigers, but he provided stability as the backup catcher because of his ability to follow the game plan when calling pitches, as well as helping young pitchers make in-game adjustments.

The free-agent options at the catcher position are underwhelming, headlined by an injury-prone Mitch Garver (who could spend the majority of his new contract at designated hitter), so the Tigers might bring Kelly back in 2024 and continue trying to tap into the power he displayed earlier in his career.

Cabrera, who retired at the end of the 2023 season, has $30 million vesting options for the 2024 and 2025 seasons, but needed a top-10 MVP finish to trigger the options. The options include an $8 million buyout, so tack that onto the 2024 payroll.

Salary arbitration

Players on the 40-man roster with fewer than six years of MLB service time must be tendered contracts. Players between three and six years of service time — as well as qualifiers for Super Two status — can negotiate raises as arbitration-eligible players. If a player is tendered, they're given a contract. If a player is non-tendered, they're not given a contract and immediately become a free agent.

The non-tender deadline is scheduled for Nov. 17. In the case of a tendered contract, the player and the team negotiate a salary and must agree by Jan. 12 to avoid an arbitration hearing.

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This offseason, the Tigers have eight players eligible for salary arbitration. Here's what each player is expected to earn in 2024, as estimated and reporter by MLB Trade Rumors:

Austin Meadows: $4.3 million.

Spencer Turnbull: $2.4 million.

Tyler Alexander: $2 million.

Trey Wingenter: $1.1 million.

Tarik Skubal: $2.6 million.

Casey Mize: $1.2 million.

Jake Rogers: $2 million.

Akil Baddoo: $1.7 million.

Estimated total: $17.3 million.

Retaining all eight arbitration-eligible players will cost the Tigers around $20 million. At least five players seem like locks for new contracts (and raises): Turnbull, Skubal, Mize, Rogers and Baddoo. Alexander, who suffered a partial tear in his left lat muscle in early July that ended his season, had an elite 2.8% walk rate as a multi-inning reliever and is expected to be healthy for spring training, so he probably receives a new contract.

At least two players — Meadows and Wingenter — could be in jeopardy of getting non-tendered and pushed into free agency.

Wingenter, 29, dealt with another injury and struggled to command his pitches, but he posted a 29% strikeout rate in 17 innings for the Tigers and a 29.7% strikeout rate in 21 innings for Triple-A Toledo. If the Tigers think he can limit the walks, he could return because he would be relatively cheap to retain.

Meadows, 28, has played 42 games over the past two seasons. He played six games in the 2023 campaign and spent almost the entire season on the injured list because of anxiety.

It's unclear if Meadows — the older brother of center fielder Parker Meadows — plans to continue his baseball career.

Pre-arbitration deals

After all that, the Tigers will have a handful of players on the 40-man roster due for pre-arbitration contracts, including Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. Players aren't eligible for salary arbitration until they reach three years of MLB service time. The league minimum salary will be at $740,000 for the 2024 season.

Estimated total: $15 million.

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers' 2024 payroll projections: May have only one big deal