Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: Dave Birkett's scouting report, prediction
Detroit Lions (2-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (19-29-1 overall, 14-22-1 with Lions); Packers — Matt LaFleur (49-20 overall, 49-20 with Packers).
Last game: Lions beat the Atlanta Falcons, 20-6; Packers beat the New Orleans Saints, 18-17.
Last meeting: Jan. 8, 2023: Lions won, 20-16.
Key matchups
Packers OLB Rashan Gary vs. Lions RT Penei Sewell: Sewell should be back at right tackle this week after two fill-in starts at left tackle for Taylor Decker, and that means he’ll square off plenty with Green Bay’s best edge rusher. Gary, the former Michigan football standout, tore his ACL in a loss to the Lions last November. He’s yet to play more than 23 snaps in a game, and he probably won’t exceed that on short rest this week. But he did have three sacks against the Saints and he does have 2.5 sacks against the Lions in his career. Sewell is an All-Pro caliber player, so this should be a fun game within the game to watch.
Lions TE Sam LaPorta vs. Packers LB Quay Walker: LaPorta has had a record start to his NFL career with 18 catches through three games, the most ever by a rookie tight end. He’s racked up yards after the catch (76) and made big plays in late-game situations to earn Jared Goff’s trust, but he won’t be catching defenses by surprise anymore. Walker never comes off the field for the Packers. He leads the team in tackles (28) and returned an interception for a touchdown in a Week 1 win over the Chicago Bears. He’s not a tight end stopper, yet. But this should be the first of many good battles between two of the better young players in the NFC North.
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Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Packers run defense
The Lions haven’t been great running the football this year, but they’ve been pretty good when it’s mattered most. They used their four-minute offense to salt away their Week 1 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, and they kept the ball on the ground for most of their game-clinching touchdown drive last week against Atlanta.
David Montgomery is expected back from a thigh bruise after sitting out against the Falcons. If he’s not on a snap count, he should resume his role as the Lions’ lead back. Montgomery has six broken tackles on 37 carries, according to Pro Football Reference, and is averaging a career-best 2.5 yards before contact. Jahmyr Gibbs is a nice compliment to Montgomery in the backfield, though his biggest contributions so far have come in the pass game.
The Packers rank near the bottom of the NFL at 136.7 rushing yards allowed per game through three weeks, a number that’s skewed by Atlanta’s 211-yard rushing day in Week 2. Walker and De’Vondre Campbell patrol the middle of the linebacking corps, and Kenny Clark is the best player on a front that could give the Lions’ revolving door of an offensive line fits with its changing looks. The Lions should get Decker back at left tackle, but right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai remains out with a knee injury. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Packers pass defense
The Lions are averaging more yards per pass (7.9) than every NFL team but the 70-point-scoring Miami Dolphins, but they don’t feel quite as explosive as last year. LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown account for 54% of their catches and 56% of their receiving yards, and last week Jared Goff targeted just four players — LaPorta, St. Brown, Gibbs and Kalif Raymond — on passes.
Goff is playing Pro Bowl-caliber football. He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes and limiting mistakes, though he has thrown interceptions each of the past two weeks. The Lions didn’t do a great job protecting Goff against the Falcons, but Decker’s return should help.
Jaire Alexander is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, but his status for Thursday is in question because of a back injury. If he plays, he’ll spend a lot of time on St. Brown. If he doesn’t, could be down to their fourth cornerback as rookie Carrington Valentine is dealing with a biceps injury. The Packers rank 10th in pass defense (199.7 ypg) and 11th in sack percentage (8.7%). Edge: Packers
Packers run offense vs. Lions run defense
The Packers want to be a run-first team, but things haven’t come easy on the ground this season. Green Bay is averaging 90.3 yards rushing per game, tied for 23rd in the league, and they were without their top running back (Aaron Jones) and two of their best linemen (David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins) last week because of injuries.
Jones was listed a limited participant on the Packers’ injury report Monday and Tuesday, so he could play this week. His backup, AJ Dillon, is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry through three games. “(Jones is) one of those special backs,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “He’s got the ability to take it on the perimeter, he has home run ability, he’s an inside runner, he’s a gadget guy, he’s pretty good out of the backfield as a receiver. It’s just, there’s just really nothing that he doesn’t do well.”
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The Lions haven’t allowed 100 yards rushing in a game this season and shut down two of the league’s best rushing offenses, Seattle and Atlanta, the past two weeks. Alim McNeill is coming off one of his best games as a Lion, and Brian Branch has been excellent in run support as a slot cornerback. Edge: Lions
Packers pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone said new Packers starting quarterback Jordan Love has a similar playing style to the four-time MVP he replaced, Aaron Rodgers. Love throws well on the move, has the ability to extend or make plays with his feet and has done a good job protecting the ball this season, though his 53.1% completion percentage is well below the NFL average.
Wide receiver Christian Watson said he plans to play Thursday after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury. He’s a viable deep threat when healthy. Romeo Doubs and rookie tight end Luke Musgrave have been Love’s favorite targets so far, and Jones is a capable receiver out of the backfield.
The Lions sold out to stop the run and dared the Falcons to beat them with the pass last week, and they could take a similar approach Thursday. Jerry Jacobs has been vulnerable to penalties (three) and big pass plays, and the Lions likely will start backups Tracy Walker and Ifeatu Melifonwu at safety again. But if that helps the pass rush stay hot and makes the Packers one dimensional, that’s the ticket to a win. Edge: Lions
Special teams
Dan Campbell said on 97.1-WXYT FM this week that his one regret from the Falcons game was he was too passive with some of his decisions. The Lions punted on a couple fourth-and-shorts near midfield, so maybe Jack Fox doesn’t get as much work this week. The Lions continue to have one of the best all-around special teams units in the league. They rank top-10 in both kick- and punt-return defense, and kicker Riley Patterson is a perfect 3-for-3 on field goals, though he’s yet to attempt a kick longer than 38 yards.
The Packers gave up a 76-yard punt return touchdown last week, though their special teams showed improvement last season under new coordinator Rich Bisaccia. Rookie kicker Anders Carlson is 3 of 3 on field goals with a long of 52 yards and dangerous return man Keisean Nixon had a 105-yard kick-return touchdown last year. Edge: Lions
Prediction
These are the two best teams in the NFC North, and frankly I don’t think the Packers are as good as the Lions. Love has been so-so in his first season as starter, and the Packers aren’t in a great spot when it comes to injuries. But Green Bay does have a talented defense, and playing a revenge game, at home, on Thursday night football, the intangibles seem to be in the Packers’ favor. The Lions won’t be intimidated by the environment, but they need to take better care of the football and they need their offense to play well on the road, which it hasn’t always done in recent years. Division games tend to be low-scoring, and I don’t think this will be any different. In a game that I think comes down to the final possession, I’m leaning Packers. The pick: Packers 21, Lions 20.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: Scouting report and prediction
