Detroit Lions vs. Denver Broncos: Dave Birkett's scouting report, prediction
Denver Broncos (7-6) at Detroit Lions (9-4)
The coaches: Lions-Dan Campbell (26-32-1 overall, 21-25-1 with Lions); Broncos-Sean Payton (159-95 overall, 7- 6 with Broncos).
Last game: Lions lost to the Chicago Bears, 28-13; Broncos beat the Los Angeles Chargers, 24-7.
Last meeting: Dec. 12, 2021: Broncos won, 38-10.
Key matchups
Lions QB Jared Goff vs. Broncos S Justin Simmons: Jared Goff has been a turnover machine the past month, tossing five interceptions and losing four fumbles in the Lions’ past four games. There’s been a bit of bad luck involved with some of those turnovers, but Goff needs to play a clean game Saturday against a Broncos team that’s tied for the NFL lead in takeaways.
Simmons is Denver’s leader in the back end. He has a team-high three interceptions this season, has forced two fumbles, and recovered a third. He’s one of the best playmaking safeties in the NFL, and Goff said Simmons is someone he’ll be aware of on every play.
“He’s got great instincts,” Goff said. “I think you always know where those types of guys are. He’s a ballhawk in the back end and does a great job with his eyes, understanding route concepts, understanding what I’m trying to do. And so yeah, there’ll be somewhat of a chess match with him of where he’s going to be and how I want to try to play and make certain plays depending on what he’s doing.”
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Lions CB Cam Sutton: Courtland Sutton flies far under the radar when it comes to the top receivers in the NFL, but he’s made some of the most impressive catches in the league this season. He has 10 touchdowns, tied for second-most behind Tyreek Hill, and wins jump balls with his big frame and strong hands.
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The Lions shuffled personnel in their secondary last week, but Cam Sutton (no relation) has played as the team’s No. 1 cornerback all season. He’s had some rough patches – he has a 101.2 passer rating against, according to Pro Football Reference – but if the Lions are going to stop Courtland Sutton in the red zone, where they’ve been among the league’s most deficient teams this season, he’ll play a big role in their success.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Broncos run defense
The Lions have scuffled some on offense in recent weeks, but their rushing attack remains formidable. They are averaging 160 yards rushing in their past six games, have hit 140 yards each of the last three weeks, and need to establish the ground game early Saturday as a way to limit their turnover exposure.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery continue to split the backfield workload, with game script tilting the snaps one way or the other. Both are coming off 66-yard rushing, three-catch games, though Gibbs nearly doubled Montgomery in playing time. The Lions should have their starting offensive line together for just the fifth time this year with Frank Ragnow’s return.
The Broncos have the NFL’s worst rush defense at 144 yards per game, though that number remains skewed by Miami’s 350-yard rushing day in Week 3. They’re well-schooled in punching out fumbles and have gotten excellent all-around play from defensive end Zach Allen. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Broncos pass defense
One area the Lions “have trended a little bit backwards” of late is in their base-down passing game, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said. They haven’t been able to connect on some of the staple timing plays they use to stay ahead of the chains and set up the play-action game. Johnson said he needs to tweak some of those concepts to keep defenses off balance and players have to be more detailed in their execution of those plays.
Goff’s nine turnovers the past four weeks are a major red flag, but he’s not solely to blame for the mistakes. His pass protection has been spotty at times and he’s gotten inconsistent play from his receivers. Sam LaPorta needs four catches to become the third tight end in NFL history with 70 or more catches in his rookie season, and Amon-Ra St. Brown seems poised for a bounce-back game coming off one of the worst two-week stretches of games in his career.
After some early-season struggles, the Broncos have been stifling against the pass in recent weeks. It helps they’ve played a string of backup quarterbacks, but Simmons and Patrick Surtain are Pro Bowl defensive backs. Sack leader Nik Bonitto could miss the game with a knee injury. Edge: Broncos
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Broncos run offense vs. Lions run defense
Philosophically, the Broncos are similar to the Lions in that they lean on a solid rushing attack to create shots downfield in the play-action passing game. Denver ranks 13th in the NFL in rushing at 115 yards per game and has one of the best right guards in football in Quinn Meinerz.
Javonte Williams should get the bulk of the carries. He’s not a huge big-play threat at 3.8 yards per carry, and he hasn’t broken as many tackles as he did before last year’s knee injury. Quarterback Russell Wilson is great at extending plays with his feet and liable to take off running in the red zone, while Jaleel McLaughlin gets a handful of touches per game as a change-of-pace back.
The Lions are ninth in the NFL against the run (96.8 yards per game) but remain without top defensive tackle Alim McNeill. When the Lions have struggled against the run this season it’s often been because of mobile quarterbacks, so they’ll have to be prepared for a larger-than-normal dose of the read-option. Rookie linebacker Jack Campbell is coming off the two best games of his career. Edge: Lions
Broncos pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
Payton has helped revitalize Wilson’s career after the quarterback was left for dead following last year’s disastrous campaign. Wilson isn’t the same dynamic playmaker he was early in his career, but he’s done a good job living off high-percentage passes — he’s completing 67.2% of throws after completing 60.5% last year — and he’s delivered late in games with four game-winning drives.
Life Goff, Wilson has fallen into a bit of a turnover rut of late; four of his eight interceptions have come in the past two weeks and he had two fumbles three weeks ago against Cleveland. Sutton is a red zone and deep ball threat, especially on extended plays, and the Broncos try and create catch-and-run opportunities for No. 2 receiver Jerry Jeudy in space. Denver’s running backs have combined for 94 catches this season, one less than Sutton and Jeudy.
The Lions have given up 17 pass plays of 24 or more yards in their five games since the bye. Kindle Vildor is splitting No. 2 cornerback snaps with Jerry Jacobs, and Ifeatu Melifonwu has replaced Tracy Walker at strong safety. Aidan Hutchinson and John Cominsky gave the pass rush a jumpstart last week, and Bruce Irvin could give the group another boost this week against his ex-teammate Wilson. Edge: Broncos
Special teams
Payton has earned a reputation as one of the most aggressive coaches when it comes to special teams in the NFL, and Lions special teams coordinator Dave Fipp said his units have to be “prepared for everything” this week. Payton famously called an onside kick in the Super Bowl nearly 14 years ago, and he opened the season with an onside kick that failed only because of a penalty this year. Electric returner Marvin Mims had a 99-yard kick return touchdown against the Miami Dolphins, Wil Lutz is 26 of 28 on field goals and the Broncos rank top-10 in both kick and punt return and coverage.
Riley Patterson has missed two extra points in the Lions’ past three games, though last week’s miss came after an errant snap. The Lions have been uncharacteristically sloppy on special teams in recent weeks. Punter Jack Fox had to make a tackle on one long return last week, Kalif Raymond muffed a punt that he recovered against the New Orleans Saints and Craig Reynolds fumbled a kick return last month. Fox is having a solid overall season, though, and the Lions have some of the best coverage units in the game. Edge: Broncos
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Prediction
This isn’t a must-win game by any means; the Lions have a two-game lead in their division with four games to play and enter the week with a 99% chance to make the playoffs. But it feels extra important given the way they’ve played of late. They’ve lost two of their past three games, have generally been mediocre since the bye and have struggled with turnovers and defending the pass.
The Broncos are a lot like last year’s Lions in that they’ve found their mojo after a rough start. They’re not a great team, but Payton has done wonders with the roster and their defense has put them in playoff contention with its nose for the ball.
There’s a good chance this game will be decided by turnovers. The Broncos are plus-11 while winning six of their past seven games and have lost the only time they’ve had a negative turnover differential in that span. The Lions have 10 turnovers in their past four games. Playing at home isn’t a panacea for their turnover problems, but I think the Lions will do just enough to score points while keeping the ball out of harm’s way to give Dan Campbell a win over his mentor and move one step closer to the playoffs. The pick: Lions 23, Broncos 17.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions vs. Denver Broncos: Scouting report, prediction
