Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears: Dave Birkett's scouting report, prediction

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (7-2)

The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (24-30-1 overall, 18-23-1 with Lions); Bears — Matt Eberflus (6-21 overall, 6-21 with Bears).

Last game: Lions beat the Los Angeles Chargers, 41-38; Bears beat the Carolina Panthers, 16-13.

Last meeting: Jan. 1, 2023: Lions won, 41-10.

Key matchups

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson: St. Brown has played as well as any receiver in the NFL this season. He has four straight 100-yard receiving games, went for a career-high 156 yards last week against the Chargers and ranks 10th in the league with 65 catches despite missing one game with an abdominal injury.

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The Lions offense runs through St. Brown in many ways, and the Bears’ best chance of slowing him down is with Johnson, their No. 1 cornerback. The subject of trade rumors at last month’s deadline, Johnson has allowed just 22 completions in eight games and has a 61.5 passer rating against in coverage, according to Pro Football Reference.

St. Brown is too good and too important a part of the Lions offense to shut down, but Johnson and the rest of the Bears secondary have to limit his touches or this game could get ugly.

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Lions DT Alim McNeill vs. Bears RG Nate Davis: The Lions have been hit or miss with their pass rush this season. They have three games with five or more sacks, six games with one or no sacks, and have struggled to generate a consistent edge rush from anyone not named Aidan Hutchinson.

McNeill is the Lions’ best interior defensive lineman. He has seven quarterback hits and a career-high four sacks through nine games, and he’ll draw a favorable matchup Sunday against a Bears interior offensive line that’s juggled parts all season.

Davis, who hasn’t allowed a sack this year according to Pro Football Focus, is expected back from an ankle injury and should help stabilize a group that’s been a weak link on offense. The Lions move their rushers around to create matchups, but McNeill should go head-to-head with Davis much of the day.

Scouting report

Lions run offense vs. Bears run defense

It wasn’t statistically their best rushing game of the season, but the Lions ran the ball as convincingly last week against the Chargers as they have all year. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs split the backfield workload and combined for 193 yards rushing and three touchdowns, and they had plenty of big holes to run through as the offensive line was healthy for just the second time this year.

Left guard Jonah Jackson is out Sunday because of a wrist injury, so they’ll have to navigate more moving parts up front, but the Lions are still set up well for rushing success against one of the NFL’s best rush defenses. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has a keen sense of story lines. It won’t come as a surprise if he looks to get Montgomery going early against his old team.

The Bears have held seven straight opponents under 100 yards rushing and are getting good play from their entire front seven. Justin Jones has been a force at defensive tackle and Chicago’s free agent investment in linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds is paying big dividends. Edge: Lions

Lions pass offense vs. Bears pass defense

The Lions have one of the most diversified offenses in the NFL. They rank fourth in both rushing and passing, and tailor their game plans to whatever course of attack gives them the best chance to win. This week, that could be through the air.

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The Bears rank last in the NFL in sack percentage (3.54%) and 26th in pass defense (248.2 ypg). Johnson is an emerging cornerback and newly-acquired defensive end Montez Sweat has bolstered a pass rush that relies heavily on stunts — he had eight pressures in his second game with the team last week — but Chicago is light on playmakers and the defense has been riddled with injuries all year.

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For the Lions, Jared Goff continues to play high-level football. He’s completing a career-best 68.4% of his passes through nine games and does a good job handling checks at the line of scrimmage. St. Brown has torched zone defenses for 613 yards this season, third most in the NFL, according to NextGen stats. And the Lions have enough other weapons in their pass game — Sam LaPorta, Josh Reynolds, Gibbs — to stress Chicago’s defense downfield. Edge: Lions

Bears run offense vs. Lions run defense

The Bears are one of six teams in the NFL without a 400-yard rusher, yet they rank fifth in the league in rush offense. They’ve excelled on the ground with a committee of backs, all of whom should be available Sunday.

Quarterback Justin Fields will play for the first time in a month because of a sprained thumb. He’s one of the two best running quarterbacks in the NFL, and he ran for 279 yards and two touchdowns in two games against the Lions last year. The physical D’Onta Foreman leads the Bears with 367 yards rushing, and Khalil Herbert is expected back from an ankle injury. Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn called Herbert a “stretch-to-puncture-type (back who) does a really good job of setting up his blocks and putting his foot in the ground and getting downhill.”

The Lions have held eight of their opponents under 100 yards rushing this season, though they’ve struggled against running backs in recent seasons. Linebacker Alex Anzalone said population to the ball is important, and it’s imperative Hutchinson and the team’s other edge rushers don’t lose track of their rush lanes. Edge: Lions

Bears pass offense vs. Lions pass defense

The Bears have tried to make Fields more of a passer, and while it hasn’t always been pretty, the third-year quarterback did throw four touchdowns in each his two games before his thumb injury. Fields is neither decisive with his reads nor accurate with his passes, but if the Bears can incorporate his athleticism into their passing game — like the Baltimore Ravens did with Lamar Jackson — it could be dangerous for the Lions.

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DJ Moore ranks ninth in the NFL in receiving yards, one spot behind St. Brown, and has given the Bears a reliable play maker on the outside. Moore is averaging 15.3 yards per catch, though his production dipped (five straight games with less than 60 yards receiving) with rookie Tyson Bagent at quarterback. Tight end Cole Kmet is a red zone threat with five touchdowns and Darnell Mooney has big-play ability.

Defensively, the Lions are vulnerable through the air because of their inconsistent pass rush and lack of playmakers in the back end. Safety Kerby Joseph has interceptions in each of the Lions’ past two games, but Campbell said the secondary’s communication needs to be better. Edge: Lions

Special teams

Riley Patterson has caught plenty of heat for his comparatively mediocre leg strength, but he’s proven to be a clutch kicker in his two-plus NFL seasons. Patterson made the game-winning 41-yarder last week against the Chargers and hit a game-winning 36-yarder as time expired in the playoffs last winter. Patterson is 13 of 15 on field goals this season, the Lions rank top 10 in the NFL in both kick and punt coverage and Kalif Raymond is averaging 10.5 yards per punt return.

The Bears gave up a 79-yard punt return touchdown last week and are last in the NFL in punt return average allowed (14.7 ypr). They’ve gotten little out of their own punt return game this season, with a long return of 14 yards. But they do have a reliable field goal kicker in Cairo Santos, who has made all four of his 50-plus-yard kicks this season and 18 of 19 field goals overall. Edge: Lions

Prediction

The Lions have done a good job of talking up the Bears this week, and while a lot of what they’ve said sounds like coach speak, the Bears do have some players that must be accounted for. Moore is a borderline top-10 receiver in the NFL, Sweat is on pace for the first double-digit sack season of his career and Fields is an explosive runner of the football. The Bears play hard, too, but they don’t stack up talent-wise with the Lions and they’ll be running into a buzz saw of a crowd at Ford Field. Maybe the Lions will have a hangover after an emotional win over the Chargers, and if they start slow they could give the Bears life. But the Lions are too sound of a team in every phase of the game to let what should be an easy victory slip out of the grasp with the playoffs on the horizon. The pick: Lions 31, Bears 14.

Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears: Scouting report, prediction