Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons: Dave Birkett's scouting report, prediction
Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at Detroit Lions (1-1)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (18-29-1 overall, 13-22-1 with Lions); Falcons — Arthur Smith (16-20 overall, 16-20 with Falcons).
Last game: Lions lost to the Seattle Seahawks, 37-31, OT; Falcons beat the Green Bay Packers, 25-24.
Last meeting: Dec. 26, 2021: Falcons won, 20-16.
Key matchups
Lions LB Alex Anzalone vs. Falcons TE Kyle Pitts: The Lions struggled to cover Seahawks tight ends Noah Fant, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson last week, letting that trio catch nine passes for 132 yards. Fant, Dissly and Parkinson were especially deadly on play-action passes, where they were able to find soft spots in a Lions defense designed to stop the run.
Well, Atlanta has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, and Pitts is a unicorn of a tight end, though he’s been weirdly underutilized since the start of the 2022 season. He has just four catches for 59 yards through two games but topped 1,000 yards receiving two years ago as a rookie.
“I think it’s only a matter of time when he does break out,” Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said. “Not against us, but that guy’s a really good player and there’s a reason why he was drafted where he was drafted and there was a reason why he did the things he did when he came in as a rookie. Man, he’s a good player and we’re aware of him.”
Lions RT Matt Nelson vs. Falcons DE Calais Campbell: The Lions are battling injuries on their offensive line. Right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai won’t play because of a knee injury, and Taylor Decker is out with a sprained ankle, giving Nelson his second straight start at right tackle.
Campbell moves all over the Falcons’ defensive front, but he rushed from the left end spot on many passing downs last week. He’s not the same player he was when he was putting up double-digit sacks for the Jacksonville Jaguars in the prime of his career, but he’ll play about half of Atlanta’s defensive snaps and still has game-altering ability.
CARLOS MONARREZ: The Lions’ defense lacks discipline and it’s already a concern — again
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Falcons run defense
David Montgomery is doubtful because of a thigh bruise, which means rookie Jahmyr Gibbs will see an increase in snaps. Gibbs and Montgomery have different running styles. Gibbs is a matchup nightmare in space, while Montgomery runs angry between the tackles, but Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said he feels “very comfortable” using Gibbs as his lead back.
Gibbs should have no problem doubling up the seven carries he’s had in each of the Lions’ first two games, but Dan Campbell said the Lions still will use a committee of backs. Craig Reynolds is the obvious candidate to pick up some of Montgomery’s touches, but Zonovan Knight also could see time. Even with their injuries up front, the Lions still have an above-average line to open holes.
The Falcons gave up 154 yards rushing in Week 1, but bottled up Green Bay’s ground game last week. Grady Jarrett, Calais Campbell and David Onyemata lead a veteran front seven, though Atlanta rotates personnel heavily on its defensive line. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Falcons pass defense
The Lions are mostly a nickel-and-dime team in the passing game, content to take what’s there on check-downs and in the flats, but Jared Goff attempted five passes of 20 or more yards downfield last week, the most he’s had in a game since last October. Goff has played well through two games. He had an interception returned for a touchdown last week, but he’s completing 71.4% of his passes and has a 109 passer rating.
Amon-Ra St. Brown should be good to go Sunday despite missing practice time with a toe injury this week. He has six catches in each of the first two games but could have a tough matchup with top Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell, who Johnson said is the best man cornerback the Lions have seen this season. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta (10 catches, 102 yards) has come up with big crunch-time plays in both games for the Lions this year.
SHAWN WINDSOR: Some Lions fans think 'doom and gloom' is back — already. Should it be?
Terrell is the best player in a solid Atlanta secondary that’s allowed just 267 yards passing through two games, albeit against two young quarterbacks in Jordan Love and Bryce Young. Jessie Bates is one of the top safeties in the NFL and ex-Lions draft pick Jeff Okudah could make his Atlanta debut. The Falcons don’t have a dominant edge presence, but they can give teams fits with their stunt game. Edge: Lions
Falcons run offense vs. Lions run defense
There’s no secret what the Falcons want to do on offense. “They’re like, we’re going to come in and try to punch you in the mouth with this run game and then try to hit you with some explosives through the air,” Lions defensive back Will Harris said. “And they’re not trying to hide it.”
The Falcons have a formidable 1-2 punch in the backfield led by rookie Bijan Robinson, who’s fast, decisive, powerful and has one of the NFL’s best dead-legs. Tyler Allgeier is a sledgehammer change-of-pace back, and Atlanta’s offensive line flies off the ball in its wide zone rushing scheme, so the Lions will have to be sound-setting edges and attentive to their gaps.
The Lions have been much better against the run through two games than they were last year. Kenneth Walker had a 14-yard run on his first carry of the game last week, then 29 yards on his final 16 carries. Mobile quarterbacks remain an issue, though, and Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder does add value with his feet. Derrick Barnes is playing well at middle linebacker, but the Lions need more penetration from their defensive tackles. Edge: Falcons
Falcons pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
The Falcons have amassed an impressive collection of weapons at the skill positions. They’re one of only two NFL teams with a first-round pick at receiver (Drake London), tight end (Pitts) and running back (Robinson), but their passing game is little more than a vehicle to help them run the ball.
London and Pitts have 10 combined catches for 126 yards and Ridder ranks near the bottom of the league in aggressive throws into tight windows (6%) and air yards per completion (4.8). Ridder has done a good job protecting the football with one interception in six career games, but he’s winless on the road and Robinson has been his favorite target this year.
The Lions need to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They’re last in the NFL in sack percentage (1.25%) and have been too undisciplined with their rush when they’ve been able to get a quarterback off his spot. Without a good pass rush, the Lions secondary could be especially vulnerable this week with Tracy Walker and Ifeatu Melifonwu slated to start in place of the injured C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Kerby Joseph. Edge: Lions
Special teams
The Lions continue to have one of the soundest special teams units in the NFL. Riley Patterson doesn’t have a huge leg, but he made his only field goal attempt of the season last week to send the Seahawks game to overtime. Return man Kalif Raymond and punter Jack Fox are weapons, and the Lions are always a threat to run a fake punt. Injuries could impact who plays where on their cover teams, but the group has been good with changing personnel for a long time.
Cordarrelle Patterson’s return from a thigh injury is in doubt after he missed practice Thursday, so the Falcons could be without one of their biggest weapons Sunday. They still have one of the game’s most accurate kickers in Younghoe Koo and Bradley Pinion is netting 46 yards per punt through two games. These are two good special teams units. Edge: Lions
Prediction
Some people have started to jump off the Lions bandwagon and I can’t for the life of me figure out why. Yes, the injuries are an obstacle, but they lost one game, to a good Seattle team, on a day they had three turnovers. Obviously, they have to take better care of the ball Sunday, but they still have a better roster than most every team in the NFC, including their opponent this week. The Falcons do one thing extremely well – run the football. That will be enough to keep them in most games this season and to win a lot of them, but this is a one-dimensional offense that’s going on the road for the first time in a tough place to play. The Lions should have opportunities to make plays downfield on offense, and as long as they do a serviceable job on Robinson, there’s no reason they shouldn’t come out with a win. The pick: Lions 27, Falcons 20.
WANNA BET? Here are the latest Detroit Lions odds and betting lines
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Why I think Detroit Lions get back on track vs. Atlanta Falcons
