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Detroit Lions are underdogs vs. 49ers: What does recent history say about their chances?

Andrew Birkle, Detroit Free Press
·6 min read

The Detroit Lions are a full touchdown underdog against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC championship game.

Whether you think that spread is too high or not, it leaves little doubt as to how the gambling experts feel this game will go. So what does recent history say about the Lions' chances?

Well, as you may guess, the results haven’t been super favorable for the big underdogs who have made it to their conference title game.

Since 2010, there have been eight games in which one of the teams in the AFC or NFC championship games has been a 7-point underdog or more. The underdogs in those games went just 2-6 straight up, but 5-3 against the spread (not that any fan base is taking a moral victory from covering the spread this late in the season).

Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown celebrates the 31-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC divisional round at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024.
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown celebrates the 31-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC divisional round at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024.

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But it hasn’t been all bad news for teams who have found themselves in a similar situation as the Lions, including the most recent example.

Here’s how teams have fared as 7-point underdogs or more in their conference title game dating back to 2010:

2022 AFC: Bengals vs. City Chiefs (-7)

In a lot of ways, this game closely resembles the Lions and 49ers matchup. The Bengals, in just their second season with Joe Burrow, were there "too early." Going against the almighty Kansas City Chiefs, fresh off back-to-back Super Bowl trips. But sometimes, football happens. After jumping out to a 21-3 lead, the Chiefs were stymied after some strong second-half adjustments by Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, and Cincinnati just kept fighting back, sealing the deal with an Evan McPherson field goal in overtime. The legend of Joe Burrow was born.

The result: Bengals 27, Chiefs 24.

2020 NFC: Packers vs. 49ers (-8)

This game is probably the nightmare situation for the Lions. The Packers were unable to slow down the 49ers rushing attack, so they ran it, over and over and over again. Then 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo attempted just eight passes and at one point went 24 minutes of game time between attempts. The Niners didn't need him and still scored 37 points, thanks to a massive day from running back Raheem Mostert, who had 220 yards and four touchdowns in the game.

The result: 49ers 37, Packers 20.

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2020 AFC: Titans vs. Chiefs (-7.5)

Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill gave Chiefs bettors quite the scare early, but as they tend to do, the Chiefs figured it out. The Titans jumped out to an early 10-0 lead and then had a 17-7 edge, but didn't score again until late in the fourth quarter as the Chiefs passed them by with four second-half touchdowns to clinch their first trip to the Super Bowl under Mahomes, where they beat the aforementioned 49ers, 31-20.

The result: Chiefs 35, Titans 24.

2018 AFC: Jaguars vs. Patriots (-7.5)

Speaking of scares, this may have been the defining scare of legendary quarterback Tom Brady's career. But this is Brady, after all. Blake Bortles and the Jags had the Pats on the ropes throughout the game, controlling the pace and even coming up with some of the biggest plays. But down 20-10 in the fourth quarter, the Patriots were able to come up with some key stops and Brady led the team down the field for two touchdown drives. When Bortles got the ball back with 2:48 in the game, the Patriots' defense came through once again, sending Bill Belichick and Brady to their eighth Super Bowl together.

The result: Patriots 24, Jaguars 20.

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2015 AFC: Colts vs. Patriots (-7)

This spread was far too low. After upsetting Peyton Manning in the round prior, Andrew Luck and the Colts came in as one of the hottest teams in the NFL. But they were no match for Brady and the Patriots, and were blown off the field. The Colts managed to keep it close in the first half, trailing 17-7 at the break, but were outscored 28-0 in the second half behind a dominant day by LeGarrette Blount, who had 148 yards rushing and three touchdowns. Of course, this game will be remembered for something that didn't happen on the field, but behind the scenes (allegedly): Deflate-gate.

The result: Patriots 45, Colts 7.

In this Jan. 18, 2015, file photo, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady looks to pass during the first half of the NFL football AFC Championship game against the Indianapolis Colts in Foxborough, Mass.
In this Jan. 18, 2015, file photo, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady looks to pass during the first half of the NFL football AFC Championship game against the Indianapolis Colts in Foxborough, Mass.

2015 NFC: Packers vs. Seahawks (-8.5)

Unlike the other conference championship game this year, the Packers and Seahawks matchup did not disappoint. Green Bay came out looking utterly dominant early, taking a 16-0 lead into halftime. The second half is when the craziness started. Trailing 19-7 in the fourth quarter, Russell Wilson led the Seahawks on a seven-play drive to make it a one-score game with 2:09 to play. The Seahawks then miraculously recovered an onside kick, drove down the field, and got a touchdown, capped off by the memorable two-point conversion with Wilson launching a throw off his back foot while running backward that was caught by Luke Wilson. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers then put together a game-tying drive of their own, sending the game to overtime, where Russell Wilson sealed the deal with a 35-yard touchdown pass to Jermaine Kearse. Unfortunately for Seahawks fans, the ultimate high of this game was crushed by the Malcolm Butler interception in the Super Bowl.

The result: Seahawks 28, Packers 22.

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2013 AFC: Ravens vs. Patriots (-7.5)

The game that sparked a thousand debates: Is Joe Flacco elite? With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, Flacco outdueled Brady, throwing for 240 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions to send the red-hot Ravens to the game later to be known as the Harbaugh Bowl, with brothers John and Jim facing off. Brady had two interceptions on the day and the Ravens scored three times in the fourth quarter to cap off a remarkable run through the AFC playoffs before knocking off the 49ers to win it all.

The result: Ravens 28, Patriots 13.

FILE - In this Feb. 13, 2013 file photo, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5) holds the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the San Francisco 49ers 34-31 in the NFL Super Bowl XLVII football game in New Orleans. Flacco was the Super Bowl MVP and the NFL's highest-paid quarterback just a few years ago. After injuries shortened his last two seasons, Flacco is now in New York with a new role: as a backup to Sam Darnold.

2012 AFC: Ravens vs. Patriots (-7)

They say in football you need some luck, and Lady Luck was not on the side of the Ravens this year. After a hard-fought, back-and-forth game, Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff badly missed a 32-yard field goal with just 11 seconds left to lose the game. That offseason, the Ravens signed kicker Justin Tucker, now regarded as the best kicker of this generation. The Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl, where they were again beaten by Tom Coughlin and the Eli Manning-led New York Giants.

The result: Patriots 23, Ravens 20.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: What are Detroit Lions chances vs. 49ers as 7-point underdog?