Despite RSN Drama, Local Broadcasts Still Carrying MLB TV Ratings
If all politics is local, as former Speaker of the House and lifelong Red Sox enthusiast Thomas “Tip” O’Neill Jr. was wont to say, that goes doubly for baseball. The formula works just as well in reverse: As far as TV ratings are concerned, local is baseball.
In 2019, a season in which local MLB ratings were up 2% versus the previous campaign and average household deliveries were effectively flat (-1%), 12 of baseball’s 29 U.S. clubs were the biggest primetime draws in their home markets. In other words, a dozen RSNs posted higher nightly ratings than any other network in their local coverage area.
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For baseball, that show of in-market dominance seemed like a pretty nifty result, given the sheer number of pundits who were (and are, still) forever banging on about the imminent demise of the sport. In light of baseball’s graying fan base—as any armchair demographer could/would tell you, supporters of Ye Grand Olde Game are aging faster than the beachgoers in that goofy M. Night Shyamalan movie—MLB is rushing headlong toward a very unforgiving statistical waterfall. As such, unless Nielsen starts deploying its ratings-gathering technology in elder enclaves (read: nursing homes, assisted-living-facilities, or pretty much anywhere with a 76% female occupancy rate and a 24/7 Murder, She Wrote feed), the bulk of baseball’s audience may soon be all but undetectable.
Or maybe not. Perhaps the nation’s more dutiful grandchildren have been smuggling portable people meters into the lounge areas of No-Spring-Chicken Manor and Sclerotic Pines, but for whatever reason, baseball’s local dominance has only intensified. Last season, 22 of the 29 MLB clubs accounted for the top ratings in their local markets. Baseball fans may be a bit more wrinkly than they once were, but the game’s overall popularity hasn’t declined—it’s just taken on a more regional flavor.
According to Gregg Liebman, who heads up research, strategy and insights at Playfly Sports, the RSNs account for 82% of all in-season MLB impressions, giving the various local outlets a huge leg up over the league’s national broadcast and cable partners. Through late June, the average household deliveries for the 29 stateside clubs were north of 1.74 million TV homes, eclipsing the in-market numbers for the Fox broadcast affiliates, as well as for the three cable outlets (ESPN, FS1 and TBS). By way of comparison, Fox’s local MLB deliveries in the 25 RSN markets averaged out to 644,717 homes per game, while the cable trio combined for 675,095 homes, with ESPN accounting for the lion’s share of the pay-TV turnout (498,477).
“On a day-in and day-out basis, the vast majority of consumption of Major League Baseball games happens on the RSNs,” said Liebman during a recent video call with Sportico. A veteran data-cruncher who put in 25 years at a number of top advertising agencies and media conglomerates before joining Playfly precursor Home Team Sports in 2018, Liebman’s insights into the unique behavioral attributes of sports fans are a key driver of the RSNs’ ability to connect with sponsors. (“I see numbers in my sleep,” Liebman said.)
That the RSNs are responsible for more than four-fifths of the collective eyeballs that take in televised baseball is of considerable interest to MLB, especially given the ongoing Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy proceedings. While baseball has had some early success with the ad hoc San Diego Padres channel (SDPA), a complete collapse of the prevailing distribution model would be an unmitigated disaster for the league and its member clubs. As much as Rob Manfred at times seems to be rooting for the dissolution of the RSN scheme—if nothing else, a radical undoing of the local delivery system would serve to accelerate baseball’s bid to launch an in-house, 30-team streaming service—the commissioner may want to give the matter some additional thought before he starts wishing on the Monkey’s Paw.
(At the individual franchise level, there’s no such thing as a no-fault divorce. After being shown the door by Bally Sports San Diego, the Padres have since expanded their local reach by more than two million households, but it’s anyone’s guess how the team plans to recoup the $540 million in rights fees it stood to rake in under the final years of its now-defunct local TV deal.)
If trying to parse the calculus that goes into Diamond Sports’ contractual decisions is a fool’s errand, the company’s board members are well aware of how each of its MLB affiliates is performing on the ratings front. Among the five likeliest candidates for an abrupt sendoff, four are currently enjoying significant year-to-year ratings growth. In Cincinnati, where the Reds are waiting to see if Diamond will honor its July 15 rights fee deadline, in-market deliveries are up 40% versus the year-ago period, for a net gain of 11,000 households per game. Meanwhile, deliveries for the Twins are up 18%, a boost which perhaps played a part in Diamond’s decision to meet its contractual obligations. Minnesota will remain with Bally Sports North through at least the end of the season, as DSG made good on the remainder of its $54.8 million rights payments to the AL Central leaders.
Also posting big local ratings gains are the Texas Rangers, which are currently up 82% versus the analogous period in 2022, with an average gain of 17,700 households per game. Finally, the Arizona Diamondbacks, which had been on the cusp of getting the Padres treatment before negotiations with DSG resumed late last month, have seen their in-market ratings improve by 30%. At the risk of blindly assigning causality, it’s almost as if there’s a pattern emerging here.
Naturally, there’s a correlation between on-field performance and the number of people who tune in to watch the hometown nine. As it happens, all four of the aforementioned clubs are leading their respective divisions, and the Reds’ turnaround has been nothing short of phenomenal. Last year at this time, Cincinnati was shuffling around in the basement of the NL Central with a 29-54 record. As of Thursday afternoon, the Reds were a much-improved 48-39.
The flip side holds true as well. A year ago, Yankees fans tuned in to YES Network each night to witness Aaron Judge chase the likes of Ruth, Mantle and Maris, a personal side quest that only enhanced New York’s lofty 60-23 record. Things aren’t so cheerful in the Bronx this year, as the Yanks already have had to plod through 38 games without their top performer, of which they’ve managed to emerge victorious in only 18. The Bombers are 30-19 with Judge in the lineup and 48-39 overall, so it stands to reason that YES’ in-game ratings are down 18% from last season’s dizzying highs. Mets fans, for what it’s worth, are more resilient; while the Amazins are floundering along at 40-46, SNY ratings are down just 6%.
On the whole, the downward-trending deliveries in the No. 1 media market may have offset some of the gains made in the smaller MLB outposts, but not to a worrying extent. Season-to-date, baseball’s RSN deliveries are flat versus the year-ago period. Bear in mind that a steady TV turnout is no mean feat in this era of accelerated cord cutting; baseball’s consistency is rather remarkable in the face of an overall 11% year-to-year drop in the number of households using TV.
While Liebman acknowledges that the addition of the pitch clock and a legislated termination of the infield shift have played their part in baseball’s massive local TV turnout, he’s quick to add that RSN numbers merely reflect what many of us have known all along. Baseball’s popularity “has never wavered,” Liebman said, even if the pundit class tends to place far too much emphasis on the national TV ratings. “This game is as alive as it’s ever been.”
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