A deeper look shows Cowboys’ red zone issues might be overblown
The Cowboys have a red zone problem. Filed under “well, duuuh” in the self-help section of the local library, it’s an issue that everyone seems to be aware of, but nobody knows how to fix. One thing everyone seems to agree on is given the schedule ahead, it’s an issue that needs to be corrected immediately or the Cowboys will never clear the hurdle they’ve been tripping over the past two years.
Their current red zone rate of 36.84% ranks them 30th in the league. It’s a far cry from the league-leading 71.43% they boasted under Kellen Moore in 2022 and an early indictment of Mike McCarthy’s play-calling early into his tenure.
Dallas made a concentrated effort to correct their red zone issues in Week 4 against the hapless Patriots, but instead of climbing out of the hole, they fell further in, going just 1-of-4 in the red zone.
No one will deny the red zone is an issue at this point, but there’s reasons to believe the issues are overblown when a deeper analysis is made.
Situational football
When McCarthy seized control of the Cowboys’ offense over the offseason, he cited occupational priorities as a big reason why.
“I think when you’re coordinator, you know but you’re in charge of the offense,” McCarthy said. “Being a head coach and being a play-caller, you’re a little more in tune with (everything). I don’t desire to be the No. 1 offense in the league. I want to be the No. 1 team in the league with the number of wins and a championship. And if we’ve got to give up some production and take care of the ball a little better to get that, then that’s what we’ll do because we have a really good defense.”
By most accounts, McCarthy has walked the talk this season. He’s slipped into a conservative gameplan that minimizes risk once the game seemed to be in hand. With three blowouts in four games, the Cowboys have spent a large portion of their time this season in safe mode.
Against New England, the Cowboys passed the ball 15 percent over expected when adjusting for high win probability. And on the season, they are passing four percent over expected using the same adjustment. They haven’t flipped into an archaic run-heavy attack in 2023, they’re just blowing people out.
“Almost” counts in analysis
The NFL is full of “almosts” and “ifs,” and while that doesn’t carry any weight in the results, it does mean something in thoughtful analysis.
When problem solving red zone issues, it matters if the play design was good or not. There’s a big difference between a play that runs right into the defense and fails, and a play that gets a player open and in position to score only to fail in routine execution.
A perfect example of the latter was on display Sunday when Dak Prescott hit his rookie TE Luke Schoonmaker with a perfect ball over the middle. Play design was great. Pass protection was great. Drop back and delivery were great. Route was great. The catch, sadly, was not so great.
Fantastic ball placement by Dak. Schoonmaker has to make this catch pic.twitter.com/Rt8WuhB3ZT
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) October 2, 2023
The point is, one small factor disrupted an otherwise great play. It’s not a moral victory or anything, but it shows the solution to the red zone problem is close.
Personnel and sample size
Another factor to consider is the sample size. The Cowboys may lead the NFL in red zone scoring attempts per game, but just four games in, the sample size is small.
No one truly expects them to remain under 50 percent this season and as games tighten in score, Dallas’ efficiency should also improve.
The Cowboys have yet to face a high-end QB this season but as explained earlier, that’s about to change. Dallas has the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL based on offenses yet to face. Their defense will be tested and their offense will have to keep pace.
Within the small sample of games is the Cowboys unproven and inconsistent personnel. One of their four games this season was played with three replacements on their offensive line. And overall, only one lineman has been playing his same position each week. That’s a huge hurdle to clear.
Additionally, they are breaking in new and unproven players all over the offense. Growing pains are expected. Peyton Hendershot and Luke Schoonmaker both have big, missed opportunities inside the red zone this season.
And the injury to Rico Dowdle in Week 4 forced Dallas to turn to Deuce Vaughn three times in the red zone, with all three attempts resulting in a negative EPA (unsuccessful runs).
It’s safe to say most red-zone strategies would not put Vaughn in that situation.
Cowboys still have issues
While there’s plenty of reason to believe many of the issues in the red zone are overblown and will organically correct, there are some issues they have to own.
The fade to CeeDee Lamb on 1st-and-goal inside the five, was a bit of a headscratcher.
Fade routes at the goal line are regarded as an extremely low percentage pass in today’s NFL. Per Mina Kimes at ESPN, fade route success rate hovered between 13.5% and 30% in her three-year sample. It paled in comparison to the 48% success rate all other pass routes enjoyed at the goal line.
On the same red zone drive that day, Pollard and Prescott miscued and both players ran into each other, botching the clean handoff and dooming the play from the start. This can probably get chalked up to player error like the Schoonmaker but to see such a miscue from the veterans on 3rd-and-goal from the four against an abnormally light six-man box, is tough shrug off.
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Conclusion
The Cowboys undeniably have red-zone issues they need to overcome this season. They cannot continue to post more failures than successes and expect to walk away winners. Not with the upcoming schedule the way it is.
Yet many of their issues will likely correct themselves. When games become tighter, McCarthy will likely call a more aggressive game. Inexperienced players will build on their mistakes and miscues will become less common.
It’s an issue, but not quite as big of an issue as the raw numbers may indicate.
