Craig Counsell's contract is set to expire. It would be a mistake for Brewers to let him walk.
The day the Milwaukee Brewers were hoping would never come – or, at least, not this soon – is here.
Craig Counsell is about to be a free agent.
The man with the most wins as a manager in franchise history, who has overseen the most successful on-field run the Brewers have ever had and is regarded around the league as one of the best in the game, is free to negotiate and sign anywhere he wants as of Wednesday, when his contract with Milwaukee expires.
Counsell, of course, has already started the job hunt process. The Cleveland Guardians and New York Mets were already granted permission to interview him before his contract expired. The Houston Astros have expressed interest, as well, according to a source, but it’s unclear how serious their pursuit would be.
Counsell’s decision at this point is truly a wild card.
The Mets are expected to make a market-setting offer, and the Guardians have shown an ability to pay top dollar for a manager, having given previous skipper Terry Francona a reported league-high $5 million annual salary before he retired this season.
Internally, the Brewers are in a muddled situation more than they have been at any point during this process.
Throughout the year, the general consensus among Milwaukee personnel from the dugout to the front office was New York would not likely draw Counsell in the end. Many internally believed Counsell, who has two sons playing Big Ten baseball and two daughters at Whitefish Bay High School, was more likely to step away from the game entirely than take a position in New York.
But around the game, people have come around to the growing possibility that Counsell goes to the Mets.
The Athletic reported last week that the rare opportunity to elevate the entire market for managers’ salaries around MLB matters greatly to Counsell, who was a players-union rep during his playing days. That is the common refrain heard in conversations throughout the league.
There is no consensus around the industry as to what Counsell will do, but this much is apparent: While his ties to Milwaukee are strong, multiple sources strongly indicate Counsell has no intention of taking a hometown discount solely for the purpose of staying with the Brewers.
The uncertainty around what Counsell will do extends to the Brewers front office, where they have begun the process of requesting interviews with potential managerial replacements, a source said. With some turnover forthcoming for both the front office and team staff the organization seems to be in flux as much as it has been in recent memory.
The Brewers are still involved in the picture
Don’t write off the Brewers just yet, though.
Counsell, from every indication, still has interest in remaining in Milwaukee. He opted to decline an extension offer from the Brewers at the conclusion of the season, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, but the offer was apparently not in tune with what Counsell could expect to get on the open market.
There are still many in the industry who express optimism that Counsell will re-sign with the Brewers and may even prefer to stay with his hometown team – as long as the Brewers match whatever offers he receives elsewhere. Considering the Mets and spending-happy owner Steve Cohen are involved, those offers are likely to be above the top of the market.
WHAT WE KNOW: Will Craig Counsell return as the Milwaukee Brewers manager?
Will the Brewers open the pocketbook to retain their manager? This is the fulcrum of Counsell’s decision.
Yes, retaining Counsell is about winning, and only two teams in the National League have done more of that than the Brewers in the last seven seasons. But it’s also about more than that.
It’s about sending a message, about stepping up to the plate, about showing the rest of the league and its bigger markets that you can play ball with the wallet, too.
Brewers have the opportunity to compete at the top of the market
Milwaukee has never been able to compete with the New Yorks of the league in free agency, but this time, it’s different.
This isn’t CC Sabathia or Prince Fielder or any other top-tier free-agent player, where the asking price is hundreds of millions of dollars.
It’s not like Milwaukee can’t afford to pay arguably the best manager in baseball what he’s asking when it’s likely a difference of only a couple million dollars per year at most compared to what they were already paying Counsell – a reported $3.5 million.
Lose a top-market talent to another market again and, this time, there would be no financial excuse to mask it.
This year, the Brewers paid Brian Anderson $3.5 million. The year before, Omar Narváez made $5 million. Before that, Jackie Bradley Jr. made $6.5 million. And these were not players expected to be stars.
The Brewers’ best chance at keeping Counsell is as simple as a raise in the ballpark of what they pay for replacement-level contributors on the field.
That’s more than any manager makes presently, but in the economics of baseball, it’s not all that much.
All along, the Brewers have been effusive in their praise for Counsell and adamant in their desire to have him nervously pacing the dugout as he does in 2024.
"Clearly we want him back,” Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio said as recently as earlier this month prior to the team’s wild-card series against Arizona.
Now is the chance to show it.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Brewers' Craig Counsell contract is expiring. Will he go to New York?
