Here’s how the Cowboys win vs Packers in 2023 wild-card round
That was quite the entertaining regular season the Dallas Cowboys just completed. They tied for the best record in the NFC and have the second seed in the playoffs thanks to an MVP-level QB, possibly the best receiver in the league, three All-Pro offensive linemen, the best pass rusher in the NFL, and the top corner.
None of those performances matter now.
The tournament begins Sunday, and the players and coaching staff must perform as well as they have during the season or it will all have been for naught. Everything is set up for them: they haven’t lost at home in 16 games, and the team they are up against is the only one younger than them. The Green Bay Packers aren’t yet playoff tested like the Cowboys are, and Dallas is as healthy as a team can expect to be in this part of the season.
The Cowboys will always be judged by this time of the year. If they make it to an NFC Championship game, the season could be seen as a victory, but they need to win the game against the Packers first. The pressure is on, and here are the things they need to accomplish and avoid in order to move on to the divisional round.
How they win: Stop Aaron Jones
Aaron Rodgers is seen as the boogeyman to the Cowboys for a good reason. The team just struggles to beat him, but on the stat sheet, Aaron Jones is the monster Dallas needs to fear, and unlike Rodgers he is going to be on the field on Sunday.
Jones is from El Paso and went to UTEP, he likes to play in the spotlight of Texas. He has 62 carries for 370 yards and six scores against the Cowboys. He seems to never miss when he matches up against Dallas.
In 2017 he had 125 rushing yards and a TD on 19 attempts. In 2019 he took it up another level with 107 rushing yards and 75 receiving yards while scoring four touchdowns.
Last season, when the Packers were not playing very well, Green Bay upset Dallas behind a breakout performance by Christian Watson and Jones once again having a great game. He had 24 rushes for 138 yards and a TD, and kept the Packers in the game until Watson took over.
This is what makes Jones the key.
He not only allows Green Bay to keep Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense off the field, but he makes their play action game even better. If the Cowboys defense stops Jones, and the Packers have to get in a shootout, the Dallas pass rush should take over the contest. Stop Jones, eliminate their ability to hold the ball, and make it a passing matchup and the Cowboys blowout another team at home.
How they lose: Playing conservatively on offense
With the regular season finished, teams can go over what issues they’ve had in defeats and Dallas has a couple common denominators in their losses. The first is they play too conservatively.
Dallas is a passing team that is lead by Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Since the bye week the Cowboys have won eight games, throwing for less than 250 yards only once in those contests, and that was against the worst team in the league, the Carolina Panthers.
In losses they threw for over 250 only once.
Philadelphia was the outlier. Prescott is elite against the NFC East and Dallas had all the chances they could ask for to win that game, but the trend was clear in the other four games. The Arizona Cardinals held the Cowboys to 231 yards through the air. The 49ers held them to only 140. The Buffalo Bills were even more dominant, allowing only 106 passing yards and the Miami Dolphins held them to 242 passing yards.
The path for the Cowboys is clear. Put the ball in the hands of the quarterback and let him cook. Running the ball into an offensive line that has hardly gotten any push all season hasn’t been the right strategy in any game yet this season and shouldn’t be relied on now.
Pass early, pass often, get a big lead, and then run the ball to shorten the game and avoid comebacks from the opposition. Put the game in Prescott’s hands, he can set the defense up to succeed by scoring points and making the Packers become one dimensional. It has been successful all season.
How to win: Feed CeeDee Lamb
Dallas wins and loses a certain way this season. In order to win they need to stop the run by either defending it well or scoring so much that the opponent can’t continue to run the ball. That leads to Dallas needing to rely on Prescott throwing the football to get the Cowboys a lead, and that goes right into getting the best weapon on the team the ball. The numbers don’t lie, getting Lamb 13 targets leads to wins. If he gets less things have proven much more difficult.
In four of the five loses Dallas has suffered, Lamb had 10 targets or less. He had seven against Arizona, five versus the 49ers, and 10 in Buffalo and Miami. The offense just isn’t explosive when Lamb doesn’t touch the ball. Brandin Cooks makes clutch receptions at big times. Jake Ferguson can hit seam plays and adds yards after the catch, but the offense moves the way it does because of Prescott to Lamb.
Lamb broke the Dallas record for receptions in a season in 16 games. He ended the year with six games with 10 catches or more, Dallas went 5-1 in those contests. He broke the Cowboys yardage record in 16 games as well. He totaled four games of over 150 receiving yards, and had the second longest touchdown reception in the history of the Cowboys as well.
For Dallas to make a playoff run it will be about Prescott throwing to Lamb, so the targets have to go to him, or they won’t have the same success relying on others.
How to lose: Self-inflicted mistakes
Another area that takes Dallas down is their inability to stop self-inflicted wounds. Even if the Cowboys accomplish all the things stated prior, they could be upset if they commit too many penalties and lose the turnover battle.
Penalties have been an issue in Dallas for multiple seasons, but this year they have been an enormous factor in every loss. The Cowboys lost the battle to the Cardinals with 13 penalties for 107 yards to eight penalties for 69 yards. Against San Francisco and Philadelphia, they tied in penalties with six and 10 respectfully, but had crucial ones that took points off the board or extended drives for their opponent that led to points. The Bills only committed a single penalty for 15 yards compared to five for Dallas for nearly 50 yards.
If the Cowboys can play cleaner, they will be tough to beat.
Turnovers correlate to wins and losses the most for Dallas. In every single loss they were unable to cause a turnover on defense and committed at least one themselves. The 49ers had a 4-1 turnover advantage, and they lost the other games 1-0 each in turnovers. It all works together, pass the ball, especially to Lamb to get ahead. Stop the opponent from rushing the ball, get pressure on the opposing QB, and cause turnovers. Then don’t screw it up with penalties and turnovers to keep the opposition in the game. That is the formula to a deep playoff run that starts with Green Bay.
You can find Mike Crum on Twitter @cdpiglet or YouTube on the Across the Cowboys Podcast.
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