Cowboys suffering self-inflicted wounds with early down play-calling
In the Cowboys 20-19 win over Detroit on Saturday, Dallas put an end to their two-game slide and kept their division crown hopes alive. The win moved them to 11-5 and on pace to log their third consecutive 12-win season. Despite all the good news, the most recent win tasted anything but sweet.
The Cowboys offense was clunky. They struggled scoring points and sustaining drives. It was the third game in a row Dallas failed to eclipse the 20-point mark, something even the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium couldn’t fix. While goal line turnovers carry a large share of the blame in their recent scoring struggles, those are more fluke than a character trait. The same can’t be said for their play-calling.
In the Cowboys’ narrow escape on Saturday, Dallas repeatedly squandered early downs. Early downs are big play downs, offering the biggest opportunities for plays downfield. Yet all too often the Cowboys played it conservatively, choosing to run the ball early on and squandering valuable opportunities in the process.
The Cowboys ran with a paltry 37 percent success rate on early downs. This means on 63 percent of their early down rushing attempts they actually decreased their odds of scoring on that given drive. While the passing game was far from flawless, its success rate on early downs was nearly 50 percent and produced an EPA almost three times that of runs.
First downs were specifically an issue in Week 17. Even though the Lions boasted a top-5 run defense and suspect secondary, the Cowboys were committed to run the ball early. Per Warren Sharp’s tracking, Dallas ran the ball 12 times on first down, producing a total of 20 yards for an average of 1.7 yards per carry. Comparatively, Dak Prescott was 12-for-12 passing on first downs, producing 7.3 yards per attempt and a 58 percent success rate.
Dallas has struggled to run the ball most of the season so none of this is out of left field. Early down success rate in 2023 is at 37.1% while early down passing is at 50.6%. While certain circumstances may warrant early down runs, more often than not the Cowboys should be passing the ball.
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