Cowboys offensive changes in ‘22 were a sign of things to come in ‘23
Curious about how the Cowboys offense will look without Kellen Moore calling plays? Join the crowd, because such was the primary line of questioning when Mike McCarthy addressed reporters at the NFL combine earlier in the week.
For all three years of the McCarthy era in Dallas, Moore led the offense. Inherited from the previous regime, Moore was handed to McCarthy as someone to develop and empower. While game plans and strategy were a collaborative effort, play-calling and sequencing fell on Moore, casting a shroud of mystery over what a true McCarthy offense entails.
What does an unfettered McCarthy offense look like? Will it be like his Green Bay days or more in line with the “Cowboys way” of the past decade? When asked, McCarthy pointed to the 2022 season as a sign of things to come. . .
“You look at our numbers just in the run game from year one, to year two, to year three,” McCarthy said. “I feel like we’re in the arena of how we want to play. So it’ll be really just building off of that.”
Saying the offense will maintain the same terminology and involve just a 30-35 percent change, McCarthy assured the masses wholesale changes are not afoot. He pointed to the 2022 season as a harbinger for the future and vaguely explained the direction the Cowboys would be going.
“I think the last three years, we grew into the offense that I wanted it to be as far as the run-pass combination. And I just feel like we’ll have another variation and hopefully take another step.”
McCarthy focused largely on the run-pass ratio when describing his offense. He talked about using the running game more often and he used last season as an example of his changes.
To many, it may not seem like the 2022 season strayed far from the norm, but diving into the numbers it’s clear the Cowboys shifted the balance in McCarthy’s third season and it can give insight as to what fans should expect with him calling plays in the future.
In 2021, Dallas was seventh in the NFL in EPA/play and success rate. They were first in points scored, second in yards per game and sixth in offensive DVOA. They achieved this lofty status by passing the ball 59.61 percent of the time (11th in the NFL).
In 2022, the Cowboys finished tenth in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. They were fourth in points scored, tenth in yards per game and 15th in DVOA. They passed the ball just 52.7 percent of the time (24th in the NFL). While Dallas regressed in all major areas of offense, they finished with the same 12-5 record.
The run-pass ratio and the drop in offensive efficiency seems to be somewhat according to plan. McCarthy boldly stated, “I don’t desire to be the No. 1 offense in the league. I want to be the No. 1 team in the league with a number of wins and a championship.”
The logic of this strategy is something to explore another day (hint, hint). What we know is McCarthy repeatedly pointed to how the running game was used in 2022 as a sign of things to come and even expressed a disinterest in offensive ranking.
Obviously, things will look different in 2023 or else McCarthy wouldn’t have taken the reigns from Moore. The plan isn’t to reproduce the numbers from last season, but use it as a stepping stone to 2023.
And stepping stones are typically laid in one direction.
