What could the Saints gain from trading down out of the 2023 first round?
Just trade down! That’s the most common criticism you’ll find from fans reading the latest wave of NFL mock drafts, who don’t like the player their team came away with and would rather move back and get more picks. It makes sense, right? But it’s just not the New Orleans Saints’ style. They haven’t traded down since 2007, and they haven’t traded out of the first round at all in a generation or two. Don’t bet on it starting now.
For one thing, it takes two to tango. You can want to trade down all you like but if there isn’t another team interested in trading up to your spot, well, you’re stuck. And that’s been the case more often than not. Through the last ten drafts, teams have made about 60 picks in the range we’re focusing on at Nos. 27 to 32, and of those only eight trades have seen a team move out of the first round altogether — so maybe 13% of the time, if you’re being optimistic.
Take that low success rate with the Saints’ own established draft-day aggression, and you don’t have an environment conducive for trading down. Like it or not, the Saints are probably staying put or climbing higher. But what if they don’t? There’s always a chance they could change their approach, and every trend ends eventually. Maybe this is the year.
If that’s the case, here are the kind of returns New Orleans could earn by trading back in the 2023 draft:
Short trade down
Let’s say the Saints want to move down just a short distance, keeping a couple of prospects they like in this range in play. If they don’t want to move down more than four to six slots, they could probably still come away with a fourth rounder and maybe a late-round pick. These two recent trades are a good reference point:
2017: Green Bay Packers traded down with the Cleveland Browns, moving from No. 29 to 33 while adding No. 108 (fourth rounder)
2022: Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded down with the Jacksonville Jaguars, moving from No. 27 to 33 while adding Nos. 106 (fourth rounder) and 180 (sixth rounder)
The Pittsburgh Steelers currently own the first pick in the second round, but they only have a single pick in the middling rounds (at No. 121) to barter with, so they aren’t a good trade partner. Instead, look for the Houston Texans to maybe try and get into the first round for a third time after picking at Nos. 2 and 12 by offering their second and fourth rounders (at Nos. 33 and 103). Maybe the Saints could squeeze the Arizona Cardinals (at No. 34) for their third-round compensatory pick or early fourth rounder (at No. 104).
Moderate trade down
Let’s say that the Saints don’t see anyone with a grade they’d be comfortable investing a pick in at No. 29 or early in the second round. So what could they gain by trading all the way down to Nos. 37 to 39 (incidentally, right in front of their next selection at No. 40 overall)? These three trades give us an idea:
2014: Seattle Seahawks traded down with the Minnesota Vikings, moving from No. 32 to 40 while adding 108 (fourth rounder)
2016: Kansas City Chiefs traded down with the San Francisco 49ers, moving from No. 28 to 37 while adding 105 (fourth rounder) and swapping 249 (seventh rounder) for San Francisco’s pick at 178 (sixth rounder)
2019: Seattle Seahawks traded down with the New York Giants, moving from No. 30 to 37 while adding 132 and 142 (both fourth rounders)
A bigger retreat is likely to get you multiple picks on the draft’s third and final day, but you might have to give up something to get a deal done. There’s certainly value in coupling your picks closer together if the Saints want to move down to, say, the Las Vegas Raiders’ pick at No. 38 while adding their later choices at Nos. 108 and 141 and maybe throwing in a seventh rounder to sweeten the deal. The Indianapolis Colts could also comfortably make a move up the board here. Unless the Los Angeles Rams can get more ammo in trading off Jalen Ramsey, they shouldn’t be big players from the No. 36 slot.
Big trade down
This is what some fans are dreaming of: a big trade down for a boatload of picks. Of course, from the Saints’ perspective, if another team wants to move up so badly they would do better to stay put and take whichever prospect has their would-be trade partner so excited. But there are several good examples in recent memory of teams making off like bandits in a substantial trade down:
2013: New England Patriots traded down with the Minnesota Vikings, moving from No. 29 to 52 while adding 83 (third rounder), 102 (fourth rounder), and 229 (seventh rounder)
2018: Philadelphia Eagles traded down with the Baltimore Ravens, moving from No. 32 to 52 while adding a future second rounder and swapping their pick at 125 for the Ravens’ choice at 132 (both fourth rounders)
2019: Los Angeles Rams traded down with the Atlanta Falcons, moving from No. 31 to 45 while swapping 79 (third rounder) for 203 (sixth rounder)
That Rams trade looks like an outlier, doesn’t it? But this is the best opportunity to bow out of the first round and come away with multiple selections. It’s just going to take quite a tumble to get there. The Saints are short on draft picks next season (the Eagles own their second rounder, and the Broncos have their third rounder, though Denver is sending back a second-round choice) so it would be nice to fall back and get a future pick while padding out this year’s number of swings at the plate.
Maybe a squad right on the fringe wants to get aggressive and elbow their way into the first round: teams who came awful close to making some noise in the playoffs like the Detroit Lions (at Nos. 48 and 55), the Seattle Seahawks (at No. 51), and Miami Dolphins (at No. 52) who could think they’re only one piece away from contending for a championship. Any of them could make a tempting offer, and the Saints’ pick at No. 40 gives them some flexibility in considering it.
