Couch: Predicting Michigan State's basketball season – Gonzaga, Kentucky, Villanova, the Big Ten and beyond

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch takes a semi-serious trip through Michigan State’s men’s basketball season, predicting each and every game, from Monday’s opener against Northern Arizona through March Madness.

Monday in East Lansing: For the first time in five years, Michigan State doesn’t open with the Champions Classic. This is a good year for such a reprieve, with Jaden Akins working his way back from a foot injury and the Spartans' big men in need of as much seasoning as possible before a November gauntlet. Northern Arizona visiting Breslin Center is a gentler beginning. The Lumberjacks, appropriately led by a coach from the northern tip of Michigan’s U.P. (Shane Burcar), are expected to be a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Sky Conference. Their top returning player is a former Virginia Tech transfer, guard Jalen Cone (18.8 ppg), who played nine minutes in Va. Tech’s win against the Spartans in the 2019 Maui Invitational. Keith Haymon, a 6-7 forward who can guard multiple positions, is another player to watch. W, 1-0

Friday in San Diego: The forecast is promising for MSU’s date with Gonzaga on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. It might, however, be warmer in Michigan, with a high of about 65 degrees expected in San Diego on game day, perhaps even cooler on the ship. The Zags are expected to be one of the nation’s best teams again, led by 47th-year senior Drew Timme, a savvy, skilled and consistent scorer on the interior, against whom the Spartans have no real answer defensively. Maybe it’ll be windy. The good news for MSU is that former Penn State guard Rasir Bolton is a key player for this Gonzaga team. By proxy, anyone once associated with the Nittany Lions basketball program ruins the mystique of whatever team they're on. L, 1-1

Nov. 15 in Indianapolis: With the Champions Classic pushed back a week due to Election Day, at my suggestion, the Spartans will know where they stand before taking on Kentucky. MSU faces a Wildcats team that might be without reigning national player of the year Oscar Tshiebwe, who’s still recovering from a knee procedure. That would be a huge break for the Spartans, who, like with Gonzaga’s Timme, don’t have anything resembling an answer for Tshiebwe, a 6-foot-9 force who averaged 17.4 points and better than 15 rebounds per game last season. Wildcats 5-9 point guard Sahvir Wheeler is also hobbled right now by a leg injury. A.J. Hoggard’s four 3-pointers keep the Spartans unbeaten on indoor courts. Hoggard is then mobbed by national media, at which time he proclaims he’s the greatest to ever play. W, 2-1

FROM 2018: Couch: A civic failure – college hoops and the Champions Classic collide with Election Day

Nov. 18 in East Lansing: Villanova visits Breslin Center as part of the Gavitt Games between the Big Ten and Big East. ’Nova gives MSU a marquee home game on its non-conference slate. Yet, while the ’Cats arrive with brand cachet and program culture, they no longer have the legendary coach — Jay Wright retired after the season — and, for the first time in nearly decade, they don’t have a headliner at point guard to run the show. Still, the’ve got a couple fellas who’ve been around forever in Caleb Daniels and Brandon Slater, a big-time freshman in Cam Whitmore, and a new coach who grew up in Wright’s system. If the Spartans are going to contend in the Big Ten, they ought to win this game. W, 3-1

Nov. 24 in Portland, Oregon: Tom Izzo's heir apparent Nate Oats and Alabama take on the Spartans in the first round of the Phil Knight Invitational, an event celebrating sweatshop labor practices and also the 85th birthday of Nike’s founder. A nap is recommended for fans before this 10:30 p.m. ET Thanksgiving night tipoff. Oats, who just a decade ago was coaching Romulus High School, has quickly built a heckuva basketball program adjacent Nick Saban’s football empire. The Tide might be the best team MSU faces in the non-conference season. They’ll certainly be the most entertaining, a team that wants to run and shoot 3s and throw lobs at the rim, but will also — last year, at least — relentlessly defend. If five-star recruit and future NBA lottery pick Brandon Miller is as advertised, this Alabama team could make a deep run in March. L, 3-2

Nov. 25 in Portland, Oregon: The Spartans, having lost to Alabama, tip off against the Oregon/UConn loser at 9 p.m. local time Friday. That’s right, folks, midnight back home. You’ll have time to nap and sober up after the U.S. Soccer team’s win over England in the World Cup group stage, which should wrap up by 4 p.m. ET. UConn, I think, will be MSU's opponent. The Huskies are an awful matchup for the Spartans in some ways, with 6-9 center and Big East Player of the Year Adama Sanogo and his backup, 7-2 freshman Donovan Clingan, occupying the paint. That said, Sanogo had 18 points, 10 rebounds and six blocks against MSU last year in the Bahamas and MSU won the game. These are both different teams than they were then, including number of transfers and new pieces for UConn. Let’s call this Mady Sissoko’s moment: 10 points, eight rebounds, four blocks, five fouls, two of them flagrant, 17 minutes. W, 4-2

Nov. 27 in Portland, Oregon: MSU’s big men should be fired up for the Spartans’ finale at the PK85, a fifth-place game at a to-be-determined time, probably against Iowa State. The Cyclones feature the sort of player Izzo chose not to go after — 6-10, 220-pound St. Bonaventure transfer Osun Osunniyi. Izzo decided to ride with his guys and, in this one, his guys repay him for standing pat. Jaxon Kohler goes nuts: 13 points, three 3s, five rebounds, four assists in 14 minutes. W, 5-2.

Nov. 30 in South Bend, Indiana: It’s been eight years since MSU last played at Notre Dame, a game the Spartans lost in overtime. This game is getting overlooked in the Spartans’ November gauntlet. It shouldn’t. The Irish won’t overwhelm MSU physically, but they’re old, per usual, led by a trio of grad students in Dane Goodwin, Nate Laszewski and Cormac Ryan, all proven players, and a graduate transfer, Marcus Hammond, Niagra’s leading scorer last season. Neither of these teams are set up to be great rebounding teams, so the ball might just hit the floor in this one. This will be MSU’s seventh high-major or high-profile opponent of the month. It'll be Notre Dame’s first. The Spartans might be battle-tested, or they might have lost their legs. L, 5-3

Dec. 4 in East Lansing: Northwestern visits to open Big Ten play. MSU usually catches a break with the degree of difficulty with its December Big Ten schedule, because the league’s TV partners want the bigger brand matchups later in the winter, when more people are paying attention. With MSU fans learning earlier in the day about their football team’s bid to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl Dec. 27 in Phoenix against Kansas — following the Spartans’ unexpected 27-21 upset at Penn State to get to 6-6 — Breslin will be buzzing for Chris Collins’ Wildcats, who lost Pete Nance and Ryan Young to the transfer portal but return the backcourt of Boo Buie and Chase Audige for a 12th season. W, 6-3

Dec. 7 in State College, Pennsylvania: Penn State will never be a basketball school, but coach Micah Shrewsberry will make the Nittany Lions a player in the Big Ten in time. They might be OK this year. This is a dangerous spot for the Spartans — a midweek road trip to State College, just ahead of finals week, a ninth-straight high-major opponent (counting Gonzaga), with a break finally in sight. Penn State returns its top two scorers and will be looking to make its mark early in Big Ten play. It’s not a bad matchup for MSU, though. This isn’t a Nittany Lions’ roster with any notable interior talent and it's an easy road atmosphere, relative to most of the Big Ten. W, 7-3

Dec. 10 in East Lansing: The Ivy League’s Brown University visits Breslin Center, bringing alum Daveed Diggs courtside to Breslin Center. Brown is also the team of senior guard Paxson Wojcik, the son of MSU assistant coach Doug Wojcik. W, 8-3

Dec. 21 in East Lansing: After a 10-day break, Oakland University visits for what’s become a fun annual in-state rivalry. Rocket Watts drops 40 for the Grizzlies and Greg Kampe finally gets one. L, 8-4

Dec. 30 in East Lansing: After playing seven games in 20 days in November, the Spartans play just their second game in 20 days against visiting Buffalo, which has almost an entirely new roster. Thus is sometimes life for successful mid-major programs in the transfer portal era. W, 9-4

Jan. 3 in East Lansing: MSU reopens Big Ten play against Nebraska and coach Fred Hoiberg, who will be coaching all season to save his job. Winning in East Lansing would help. It’s hard to picture that. W, 10-4

Jan. 7 in East Lansing: MSU plays its fifth straight home game as Michigan visits Breslin Center, which has separate tunnels for the home and visiting teams. This is a more civil rivalry than in football. The Wolverines are an interesting team, with the league’s biggest returning name in big man Hunter Dickinson but a whole lot of questions surrounding him. MSU goes small, putting Joey Hauser at center, doubling Dickinson defensively and forcing him to defend the perimeter on the other end. W, 11-4

Jan. 10 in Madison, Wisconsin: Brad Davison is no longer on the Badgers’ roster. I checked twice. Wisconsin, though, has a very Wisconsin-like roster, led by power forward Tyler Wahl, guard Chucky Hepburn and 7-footer Steven Crowl. Like many years before, the Badgers don’t look all that impressive on paper. They’ll probably wind up being a tough out in January. W, 12-4

Jan. 13 in Champaign, Illinois: If this Illini roster comes together, Illinois might win the Big Ten. There’s a lot of new pieces, with three transfers (including Texas Tech’s Terrence Shannon Jr. and Baylor’s Matthew Mayer) and a strong, five-member freshman class. Sissoko is booed every time he touches the ball, two years after breaking Ayo Dosunmo’s nose. L, 12-5

Jan. 16 in East Lansing: Purdue is Zach Edey’s team now. Just about every other name you know is gone, other than Matt Painter, of course. The 7-4 center Edey is a difficult matchup for anyone, including an MSU front line that features three guys (Sissoko, Kohler and Hauser) who are 7 or 8 inches shorter than Edey. But the Spartans should have a counter — the outside shooting ability of Hauser and Kohler. I’m not sure how Purdue deals with teams that can pull Edey away from the basket or put him in ball screens. MSU can do both. W, 13-5

Jan. 19 in East Lansing: MSU will be glad Rutgers no long has Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker, finally, but Steve Pikeill’s program is on solid footing, a perennial NCAA tournament contender, with a fair bit of experience this season, including guards Paul Mulcahy, Caleb McConnell and big man Clifford Omoruyi. Rutgers drilled the Spartans when these two teams met last year. Jaden Akins’ first triple-double makes sure that doesn’t happen this time out. W, 14-5

Jan. 22 in Bloomington, Indiana: The Big Ten-favorite Hoosiers are finally living up to expectations. It only took a decade. L, 14-6

Jan. 26 in East Lansing: Perhaps nobody outside of Iowa likes this Iowa roster more than I do, with Patrick McCaffery, Kris Murray and fair bit of depth and experience around them. The Hawkeyes will be an NCAA tournament team. W, 15-6

Jan. 29 in West Lafayette: The Spartans return to a building at Purdue that’s been a house of horrors since Branden Dawson finished playing for MSU. That includes the 2021 NCAA tournament play-in game loss to UCLA. Some good, and even great, MSU teams have been obliterated in Mackey Arena in recent years. Same old story. Purdue shoots 70%, MSU is 0-for-26 on 3-point tries. Because it’s Mackey. L, 15-7

Feb. 4 in New York: On the day before the Lions play the Bills in an unexpected Super Bowl matchup — one of the great in-season turnarounds of all-time, really — MSU plays Rutgers at Madison Square Garden. In an effort to have a bit of that Lions’ magic rub off on his team, Izzo starts Nick Sanders, Barry’s son. It works. Malik Hall and Joey Hauser combine for 50. W, 16-7

Feb. 7 in East Lansing: New Maryland coach Kevin Willard attempts to rescue an underachieving Terrapins program. This is an underrated roster, thanks to a number of transfers. If it comes together, the Terps could be a NCAA tournament bubble team. W, 17-7

Feb. 12 in Columbus, Ohio: It’s hard to know what to expect from the Buckeyes this year. It’s a mostly new crew, transfers and freshmen, some good players. But it’s definitely all new. By February, this could be a really good team. L, 17-8

Feb. 15 in East Lansing: Minnesota visits, with no chance of an upset. L … Kidding. W, 18-8

Feb. 18 in Ann Arbor: The Spartans step foot in Ann Arbor again. This is the game when this MSU team truly captures the hearts of its fan base: MSU 84, U-M 67. W, 19-8

Feb. 21 in East Lansing: The first-place Hoosiers visit Breslin. But MSU has found something. Akins scores 18 and grabs eight rebounds. Hoggard adds 16 and 10 assists. W, 20-8

Feb. 25 in Iowa City: MSU is rolling, but these are 18-to-22-year-olds (25 in Jason Whitens case). Things can go wrong on a given night. They do at Iowa. L, 20-9

Feb. 28 in Lincoln, Nebraska: It’s hard to describe how much of a sleeping giant Nebraska basketball is. Strong fan base. Sweet arena in the middle of a great entertainment district. This thing should work. With Fred Hoiberg having been fired weeks earlier and the Huskers still weeks away from announcing Rick Pitino as their next coach, this is a rudderless team, without enough Big Ten talent. W, 21-9

March 4 in East Lansing: Ohio State has been part of some memorable season finales at Breslin — Draymond Green’s last home game, Cassius Winston’s swan song (days before COVID shut the world down). This one is no different, forever known as the Tyson Walker game, his final shot in a 34-point night giving the Spartans a piece of the Big Ten title, shared with Illinois and Indiana, all 15-5 in conference play. W, 22-9

March 9 in Chicago: MSU, the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten tournament, plays 10-seed Penn State. Hoggard’s triple-double (12 points, 10 assists, 11 turnovers) contributes to a short stay in Chicago. L, 22-10

March 17 in Albany, New York: MSU, the 5 seed in the West Region on the strength of its wins over Kentucky, Villanova, Indiana and Michigan twice, opens NCAA tournament play against 12-seed Wyoming in Albany. MSU basketball sports information director Mex Carey offers a tour of his boyhood home. Izzo declines. MSU advances. W, 23-10

March 19 in Albany, New York: The Spartans face 4-seed San Diego State in the second round. The Aztecs are coached by Brian Dutcher, an assistant at Michigan from 1988-98. Izzo’s deepest feelings are triggered. MSU’s players, not quite sure why their coach is mumbling about Chris Webber but also fearing they might have to walk home if they lose, take care of business. W, 24-10.

March 23 in Las Vegas: MSU gets 1-seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16. The Tar Heels have a lot of pieces back from the squad that nearly won a national title a year earlier. Northwestern transfer Pete Nance, though, causes the Spartans the most trouble. Meanwhile, his old coach, Chris Collins, has been let go. MSU makes a run, falls a little short, looks like its a year away. L, 24-11

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball season prediction: Gonzaga, Kentucky, the Big Ten, etc.