Couch: Michigan State's basketball team is closer to contention than it appears, warts and all

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. – The frustration from last Sunday and early December and parts of November was baked into the vibe after Michigan State’s 71-68 loss late Thursday night at Illinois.

If the Spartans played like this all season long, they might be 14-3 and perhaps no worse than 3-2 in the Big Ten. They’d still be annoyed that they missed an opportunity at Illinois. But the disappointment would be contained to one evening.

Instead …

“It was definitely a game we had to get,” senior point guard A.J. Hoggard said, sitting outside the Spartans’ locker room at the State Farm Center. “We knew that coming in. And I think we brought that energy from the door. But I just think we’ve got some things to shore up. I think we played well, man. I think we played way better than we did at Northwestern.”

No lies were told here.

It’s just that when you’re 1-4 in the Big Ten for the first time since the final MSU basketball season at Jenison Field House and you’re 9-7 like you were during the COVID season, when you barely squeaked into the NCAA tournament play-in game — and the expectation for this season is that you’ll contend for championships …

Well, it’s hard to let what transpired Thursday night at Illinois stand on its own.

On its own, though, no biggie.

The Spartans’ record is deceiving in terms of their potential. All but a handful of teams in college basketball would have lost at Illinois on Thursday night. I still believe MSU is a top-four team in the Big Ten. I don’t think that’s a hot take. It’s Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois and the Spartans. And, two months from now, heading into the Big Ten tournament, it’s more likely than not that MSU has 13 or 14 league wins, 21 or 22 wins overall and a double-bye in Minneapolis.

Nebraska, Northwestern and Ohio State also have a chance to be NCAA tournament teams. But I think the cutoff is about there. This is a down year in the Big Ten beyond that.

Of MSU’s nine scheduled games against those six teams, the Spartans have already played four of them — in their first five conference games, three on the road. Of the five remaining against those six teams, only Wisconsin on Jan. 26 and Purdue on March 2 are on the road.

In other words, MSU should be fine.

But, again, this season wasn’t supposed to be about just being fine or finishing a safe distance from the NCAA tournament bubble. This MSU team, coming off a Sweet 16 run, with its acclaimed starting backcourt intact and its centers a year more seasoned and a recruiting class that had fans doing cartwheels on the beach all summer, was supposed to be in the conversation nationally.

The only question that matters now is whether the Spartans can finish there. Whether those things MSU has to shore up, as Hoggard said, can be shored up.

MSU has the backcourt to achieve its dreams. That’s no longer in doubt. Tyson Walker is a bona fide college star. So, too, now is Hoggard, who carried MSU through large chunks of the game Thursday. And has largely been playing at an all-conference level for a while now, throughout league play really, even before the Baylor game that put a jolt into MSU's season. It’s not just his numbers. It’s his ability to take control and to create a good shot getting downhill. And to take care of MSU. It’s the way he’s defending. It's Tom Izzo's increasing trust in him and their communication on and off the court.

“A.J. continues to play at a very high level,” Izzo said Thursday night.

Jaden Akins' level has been increasing of late, too.

It would be a shame to waste this backcourt.

Hoggard and Walker missed a number of shots Thursday — Hoggard near the rim, Walker from deep — and that was costly, because there’s such little room for error in a game like that and because MSU fell short in other areas, at the center position mostly. MSU would have won with better play from Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper.

Those two were tasked early with keeping 6-foot-6 guard Ty Rodgers from getting to the rim. Rodgers can’t shoot. As in, 3-pointers aren't an option for him. And so you don’t have to put a guard on him out at the 3-point line.

“(Assistant coach) Doug Wojcik came to me a week ago, two weeks ago and had an idea and then all of a sudden Purdue (last week) did some something similar (guarding Rodgers),” Izzo said, “and our bigs just didn't cover it. I mean, that was inexcusable and I have no sympathy. … Do your job.”

MSU has to get more out of the center position by the end of the season. And not just when it's the odd matchup covering a guard. Sissoko has been rebounding well and is sometimes an exceptional ball-screen defender, but he does nothing else at a high-major level. And that’s not going to change. He’s MSU’s baseline at the position. Good enough some days. Other days, just good enough to get you beat.

The key is the continued development of Cooper and, now that he’s back and healthy, fellow sophomore Jaxon Kohler, and also to keep pushing freshman Xavier Booker to become a player who can contribute on nights like Thursday, when he didn’t get off the bench. The hope has to be, that by the end February, MSU has a center cocktail of sorts that it can deploy, a mix that, over 40 minutes, causes some problems for opponents and can hold up well enough. Kohler is unlikely to improve MSU defensively or on the glass, but if his offense, both scoring and passing, elevates MSU’s half-court attack — and I think it will — that’s something.

If freshman Coen Carr can keep making strides — he was a difference-maker in seven minutes Thursday — then MSU will have more athletic pop in its lineup more often and options on the wing and at power forward, in case Malik Hall disappears again.

The Spartans, as they’re playing right now — with six strong performances in seven games — are good enough to win every game on their schedule until March, until that trip to Purdue. They might slip up somewhere. But the schedule should allow for them to build some consistency, to recapture the winning vibe, to get toward the top of the standings. And then perhaps show us their teeth when they play at Wisconsin or when they visit the Boilermakers or when, on the road, an underdog has them on their heels for a while.

Thursday’s loss, on its own, should not be discouraging. It’s just too often been a discouraging season thus far, so any defeat becomes easy to conflate with every defeat.

“Everybody's got to improve, but we just got beat by a damn good team,” Izzo said. “ … So we're going to get better. We’re going to grow from here. Everybody will give up on us. And that's fine with me. I don't even blame them. But I think I know where this team can still get — and I plan on getting them there.”

MORE: Couch: 3 quick takes on Michigan State's 71-68 loss at Illinois

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State basketball: MSU is closer to contention that it appears