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Conference expansion: Power rankings for who joins the Big Ten next (and who leaves the ACC and the Big 12)

College conference expansion is taking a break, but it isn’t going to slow down. Not anytime soon, and not as long as the ACC’s media deal remains inferior to that of the Big Ten, the SEC and the Big 12 (not to mention Notre Dame).

But it is clear after recent additions of Oregon and Washington that the Big Ten will continue to be aggressive in the college expansion and realignment landscape. This is as much about accruing assets (i.e. desirable media markets) as it is about adding fine athletic programs.

So where does the Big Ten go next in all of this? And what does the Big Ten value in conference expansion?

AAU membership (all current additions to the Big Ten are members of this prestigious academic institution)

Football, followed by basketball, drives this bus

Media markets, especially for the next television deal, are vastly important for the Big Ten to remain the most valuable conference in college sports.

So with that being said, scroll down and check out the most recent power rankings for possible expansion candidates to the Big Ten!

(Oh, and no Notre Dame on this list as they don’t seem enthralled with the idea of joining any conference quite yet)

10. Stanford (will they get to the Big Ten eventually?)

Stanford appears most likely to be headed to the ACC or staying in some revised and renewed Big 12. But at some point, will the Big Ten simply make a West Coast pod and add Stanford?

Academically, Stanford more than meets the criteria. An AAU member, they aren’t particularly strong (currently) in football or men’s basketball, the two sports that drive this bus. But they are a juggernaut in Olympic sports and add a top 10 television market in San Francisco.

 

9. Boston College (a bit of a reach for the Big Ten, truth be told....but Boston...)

Not an AAU member, Boston College has a lot of strikes against its candidacy to join the Big Ten. They are a top 10 media market and have the potential to be solid in football.

If Boston College can rebound on the football field, then their candidacy for the Big Ten is certainly enhanced. And if they can become an AAU member, then they would be seriously considered by the Big Ten.

Adding BC would help lock down the Northeast for the Big Ten. It would also help programs such as Maryland and Rutgers, added in 2014, with natural rivalries from the old Big East.

Getting into the AAU, if they want membership, is the necessary first step though for BC.

8. Arizona (just moved to the Big 12 in conference realignment)

So far, the Big Ten hasn’t seemed too interested in Arizona or Arizona State, who are set to leave the Pac-12 for the Big 12. Good moves for both programs.

Arizona is in a strong media market that would include Phoenix (No. 12), Scottsdale and Tempe.

Foobtall needs some work but men’s basketball and a host of non-revenue sports would enhance the Big Ten as a whole. They are already an AAU member, helping their candidacy.

7. Duke (seems snooty enough for the Big Ten)

Duke checks off a lot of boxes including a great academic institution, AAU membership and a national powerhouse in men’s basketball. Duke is solid enough in football and wouldn’t be a black eye in the conference at all on the gridiron.

They add a national fanbase in basketball and are well positioned in the growing North Carolina market.

Duke’s only downside is that football isn’t as strong as the four recent additions from the PAC-12. They also may not hurt the Big Ten on the football field but they would be decidedly average at best.

Would Duke leave the ACC and their long-standing rivalry with North Carolina? Maybe a bit doubtful. But money talks and the Big Ten’s media deal dwarfs the ACC.

6. Syracuse (just try to understand the logic here...)

OK, Syracuse was a former AAU member but isn’t one currently. If that were to change, it could make ‘Cuse attractive to the Big Ten.

So this ranking is a bi of a hedge that Syracuse could get back into the Big Ten.

Now, Syracuse isn’t as attractive to the Big Ten (or any conference for that matter) as Duke. That isn’t a knock on Syracuse, just reality. But what Syracuse happens to be is available. Their ties to the ACC aren’t as strong as say that of Duke. Syracuse would bolt if the timing was right.

They would bring some attractive media markets in upstate New York (No. 51 Buffalo and No. 81 Syracuse) and have a strong alumni base and following in New York City. Syracuse is more attractive to the Big Ten than many people realize.

5. Georgia Tech (admittedly, this now seems a little high in retrospect)

This list has been a bit eccentric, has it not? But think about the candidacy of Georgia Tech here for a minute. Solid but not great in football. A strong history in basketball. Sounds a bit like Maryland and to a lesser extent Rutgers, who joined the Big Ten in 2014.

Located in Atlanta, the seventh-largest media market in the nation, Georgia Tech has appeal to the Big Ten if only because it would bring more eyeballs to the conference for their next television deal.

Getting into SEC country would be a good thing for recruiting as well. Georgia Tech is also an elite academic school and an AAU member.

Like Duke and Syracuse, the Big Ten’s current media deal, and the lack of a competitive deal for the ACC, means that Georgia Tech is ripe for the poaching.

4. Virginia (a great conference expansion candidate for the Big Ten)

While it doesn’t bring a top 25 television market, Virginia is a sprawling and well-populated state. Football is an up-and-down program but men’s basketball plus a host of non-revenue sports are very strong.

Desireable because they are in a solidly populated state, they would enhance the Big Ten in men’s basketball as well as lacrosse, soccer and baseball. Factor in that UVA is a very strong academic school and already an AAU member and the profile fits the Big Ten in many, many ways.

3. North Carolina (an almost perfect for the Big Ten at every level)

Like Virginia and Syracuse and Duke, the lack of competition in the ACC’s current media rights deal has North Carolina with their ears to the ground.

The Tar Heels are a blue blood of college basketball and are on the rise in football (see Brown, Mack). They also have a strong track record in women’s basketball, men’s and women’s soccer as well as lacrosse. Coupled with their status as an elite academic institution and membership in the AAU, this one makes sense.

Now, the Big Ten would ideally want to add North Carolina with another ACC program (scroll down to No. 1 on this list). But North Carolina is not going to be an easy pull given their roots in the ACC and the rivalries with Duke and North Carolina State.

2. Kansas (is Kansas now a football school?)

Because North Carolina might be a tough pull from the ACC, that pushes Kansas up the list here a couple of spots. The Jayhawks certainly took a step forward last year on the football side and proved they have the potential to be a quality Power Five program.

Men’s basketball and the proximity of the school to Kansas City help to push this discussion. Kansas City is the No. 31 media market in the nation.

And while the Big 12 is arguably in better shape in terms of television money than the ACC, the Big Ten still rules the roost as far as those numbers go. And if the Big Ten comes calling for Kansas (an AAU member), then it might be game over for the Jayhawks in the Big 12.

1. Miami (the dream candidate for the next round of Big Ten conference expansion)

Some might expect to see Florida State here but there are a few reasons why Miami takes the top spot:

Miami is an AAU member, Florida State isn’t

Miami is the No. 16 market in the nation, Florida State (Tallahassee is in the Ft. Myers market which is No. 61 nationally)

Miami has a stronger national brand in football. Florida State, while strong nationally, doesn’t have the number of bandwagon fans as Miami

Factor in that Miami is among the biggest football recruiting turfs in the country and adding the Hurricanes makes sense. Miami also is strong on the men’s and women’s basketball side as well as historically in baseball.

Adding Miami, a storied program since the 1990s, would give the Big Ten another big anchor program for primetime games.

One more thing...

Clemson could vault onto this list if they were an AAU member, same with the aforementioned Florida State.

UConn could make a compelling case if they were an AAU member as well, seeing as that would bring premier men’s and women’s basketball programs to the Big Ten and would open up the New England market for the conference. UConn baseball is also a strong sell and football (an independent) made a bowl game last year).

Story originally appeared on Rutgers Wire