Colts vs. Steelers: 5 things to watch in Week 15
The Indianapolis Colts will be looking to shake off their disappointing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals as they are set to host the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Saturday matchup in Week 15.
This series hasn’t been favorable for the Colts. They have lost eight straight games to the Steelers with their last win in the series coming back in 2008.
The last time Indianapolis beat Pittsburgh at home came in 2005. This is another crucial AFC contest for the Colts with both teams currently in the playoffs and a win on Saturday can help create separation heading into the final three weeks of the season.
Here are five things to watch for when this game kicks off on Saturday afternoon:
Can the rushing attack get back on track?
The Indy offense was carried the first half of the season through their rushing attack but that hasn’t been the case lately. In their past five games, they are only averaging 80.8 rushing YPG. It took a major dip in the past two weeks without Jonathan Taylor.
Zack Moss averaged 2.47 YPC in his last two games as the starting running back during Taylor’s absence. The lack of a threat on the ground isn’t just on the backfield but also on the offensive line which has struggled to open up consistent rushing lanes for their backs.
The Steelers defense is allowing 117.9 rushing YPG this season, that is the 11th-most allowed in the NFL. With the Pittsburgh defense having a game-wrecker in T.J. Watt, Shane Steichen must get a quality performance out of his rushing attack.
He can’t afford to put this game on Gardner Minshew and the passing attack. If the offense can’t win the first two downs with a good rushing attack then it will lead to Watt and others pressuring Minshew into those mistakes he tends to make.
Bottling up Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren
The Steelers offense has been a mess for most of this season. They rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL in total YPG (292.5), passing YPG (179.8), and PPG (16.2) but their rushing YPG (112.8) is in the top half of the league.
Their rushing attack has been split between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren this season because of how much impact Warren has made in his second season. As far as Harris, his numbers are down across the board. His rushing YPG (53.1) and receiving YPG (11.5) are on pace to be career lows.
While Warren’s rushing YPG (47.1) doubles his average from his rookie season (23.7). His receiving YPG (20.9) also has seen an increase from Year 1 (13.4).
With the Colts opponents finding success on the ground and in the screen game with their backs, I would expect that the Steelers will lean into Harris and Warren to take off the pressure from Mitch Trubisky.
If Gus Bradley can get his defensive front and linebackers to be on the same page in bottling up their backfield and not allowing chunk plays through the screen game then they can put the Pittsburgh offense in third-and-longs often and force Trubisky to beat them.
Limit T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith's impact
The Pittsburgh defense is capable of making game-changing plays in this contest because of players like T.J. Watt they have in that unit. Watt has the second-most sacks (14) in the NFL this season to go with his 52 tackles (37 solo), 14 TFLs, 27 QB hits, three forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries including one for a touchdown, seven pass defenses, and an interception.
Unfortunately for the Colts, Braden Smith will miss this matchup. In last year’s game against the Steelers, he only gave up one QB hit to Watt and didn’t allow a sack. With Smith out this week, it will be on rookie Blake Freeland to slow down Watt.
In that case, it would be very smart for Shane Steichen to shift the protection Watt’s way and chip him with his backs and tight ends often on Saturday.
The focus on Watt can’t lead to the offensive line taking Alex Highsmith lightly. The opposite edge rusher has continued to grow as a player for the Steelers in his fourth season. This year he has 49 tackles (27 solo), seven TFLs, six sacks, 16 QB hits, two force fumbles, two pass defenses, and a pick-six.
Highsmith will be lined up against Bernhard Raimann and with the likely focus on Watt, there will be plenty of one-on-one battles in this contest between the two. Raimann is coming off his worst performance of the season and his team needs him to bounce back in a big way in Week 15.
If Indianapolis can keep Watt and Highsmith at bay then that should help Gardner Minshew have time in the pocket to deliver his throws.
Force Mitch Trubisky into mistakes
Mike Tomlin already confirmed earlier this week that Kenny Pickett will miss another game with his ankle injury and the team will be rolling with Mitch Trubisky. In six career starts, Trubisky only has one game that he started where he finished over 200 passing yards.
It should be noted that he finished with 276 passing yards in a game he replaced Pickett after eight snaps. In the six games Trusbisky started, he has three passing touchdowns and three interceptions.
This should be a situation that Gus Bradley’s defense can take advantage of but after last week against Jake Browning, that can’t be a safe bet to say it will happen.
It will start with the defensive line dominating the trenches and not letting their backfield break off runs to put Trubisky in favorable second and third-down situations. The more times the Indy defense can force their offense to drop back and throw, then they will have more opportunities to get sacks and create turnovers.
In the six games he has started for Pittsburgh, Trubisky has been sacked 11 times. After getting shut out in the sack department against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Colts’ defensive front has to do a better job at getting pressure on the QB as well as getting home in Week 15.
Josh Downs is due for a big performance
After a strong start to his rookie season, Josh Downs has been relatively quiet for the Indy offense since his seven catches for 72 yards against the New Orleans Saints in Week 8. Since that game, his best showing was five receptions for 43 yards on 13 targets in the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
In the four other games since Week 8, Downs didn’t have more than three receptions, 40 receiving yards, and five targets. Part of this is because of how reliable Michael Pittman Jr. has been in that time and Alec Pierce having his breakout game of the season in Week 12 against the Tennessee Titans.
While Shane Steichen needs more out of his rushing attack, it’s safe to say that Mike Tomlin will have his defense take away the ground game and force Gardner Minshew to beat them as teams have done this season.
If they can pull that off then Steichen will need someone outside of MPJ to step up in this matchup and be a difference maker. Downs has shown he can be that in this offense and is due for a big game for the Indy offense.
Downs getting back to his chain-moving ways on third downs and explosive plays through the air can help put up points on Saturday.
