College football: Ohio State won't be surprised by Purdue

Nov. 12—Who invited these guys?

That might be what some of the other Big Ten football title contenders are asking about Purdue.

A month ago Purdue had a 3-2 overall record, which included an unimpressive win over Illinois and a loss to Minnesota in its first two Big Ten games.

But since then the Boilermakers have knocked off Iowa when it was ranked second in the AP poll and Michigan State last week when it was No. 3.

In between those two signature wins, Purdue (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) lost at Wisconsin and won at Nebraska.

It is now one of four teams, along with Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, who are tied for first in the Big Ten's West Division.

Wisconsin is the favorite to come out of the West to play in the Big Ten championship game because it controls its own destiny and only one of its last three opponents has a winning record.

But Purdue still has a chance. And winning Saturday at No. 4 Ohio State (8-1, 6-0 Big Ten) would give the Boilermakers three wins over Top Ten teams in a year when they were not predicted to do big things.

In the preseason, ESPN looked at Purdue's 2-4 record last season and 4-8 record in 2019 and predicted its win total would be between five and six games.

Hammer and Nails, a Purdue-oriented publication, called for a 7-5 season and "a decent bowl game." Las Vegas odds makers set the over-under number for Purdue wins at five. And College Football News said the Boilermakers would have a hard time getting more than six wins without a big upset.

A month ago Saturday's OSU-Purdue game might have been viewed as a "trap" game, where the Buckeyes might be looking past the Boilermakers to their final two regular-season games against Michigan State and Michigan.

But Purdue's recent success seems to have eliminated that problem. And another reason for Ohio State to be focused is it has a few things to sharpen up after close wins over Penn State and Nebraska in its two most recent games.

Getting more production out of its running game might be No. 1 on the Buckeyes' to do list this week.

If you take away TreVeyon Henderson's 68-yard run against Penn State, OSU averaged only 2.9 yards per rushing play against Nebraska and Penn State.

OSU coach Ryan Day said it's not just one thing that has caused the running game's struggles, which is what coaches always say.

Here are three possible causes: The offensive line has not dominated the line of scrimmage in the last two games. Defenses seem to have done their homework in the film room and are doing a good job of anticipating Henderson's tendencies and limiting his big plays. And some people would say the lack of a running threat from quarterback C.J. Stroud should be included.

Based on Ohio State's 26-17 win over Nebraska last week and Purdue's 40-29 win over Michigan State, both teams' offenses might be dominated by their passing games Saturday.

Stroud was 36 of 54 for 405 yards and two touchdowns against Nebraska. Those numbers came on a day OSU played without wide receiver Garrett Wilson. But Jaxon Smith-Njigba (15 catches, 240 yards) had the best game of his career.

Purdue quarterback Aidan O'Connell completed 40 of 54 passes for 536 yards and three touchdowns against Michigan State last week. Wide receiver David Bell (64 catches, 1,003 yards, 5 touchdowns) was first-team All-Big Ten last season and three other Purdue receivers have caught between 26 and 36 passes.

What Purdue doesn't have is a running game. It averages 77.1 yards a game on the ground, which is No. 128 nationally out of 130 FBS schools.

Purdue might put quite a few points on the scoreboard Saturday afternoon. But Ohio State's overall talent should keep the Buckeyes on track for their Big Ten East Division showdowns with the two Michigan schools.

The prediction: Ohio State 42, Purdue 28.

Reach Jim Naveau at 567-242-0414.