College Basketball Best Bets, March 7: Oregon Ducks vs Colorado Buffaloes

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet for the Thursday College Basketball slate in a Pac-12 contest between Oregon and Colorado.

Colorado at Oregon (-2.5): O/U 150.5

Colorado enters this road matchup on a four-game winning streak, ranking 18th in the country during that span, per Barttorvik.

For Oregon, the Ducks are 3-2 in the past five games in the same span with a top-100 ranked offense and defense, but 81st according to Barttorvik. While that one discrepancy in that span points to Colorado, I like Oregon.

Oregon is 12-2 at home with losses to Arizona and Washington State, the two best teams in the Pac-12. The Ducks are looking to avenge a road loss at Colorado earlier this season (86-70) as Oregon's won seven of the past eight at home versus Colorado.

The Buffaloes went 8-of-19 from three (42.1%) hosting the Ducks, which was no surprise since Oregon's three-point defense is much better at home (30.9%, 88th) versus the road (38.1%, 315th).

Oregon gets to the free-throw line more, turns the ball over less, and rebounds better at home. On the other hand, Colorado's ranked 316th and 354th in offensive and defensive turnover percentages on the road with the 330th-ranked three-point defense (38.8%).

I like this home matchup for the Ducks. This opened at -1 last night and was bet out to -3. I played Oregon's ML at -135 odds on BetMGM and would go out to -150 odds or -3.

Pick: Oregon ML (Risk 1.5u)

Season Record: 63-55 (53.3%) +2.3 units

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