College Basketball Best Bets, March 14: Ohio State vs Iowa, Minnesota vs MSU, and More!
Vaughn Dalzell breaks down Ohio State versus Iowa and Minnesota against Michigan State in the BigTen Tournament, plus an ML parlay and spread in the MAC tournament.
Minnesota vs Michigan State (-6.5): O/U 135.5
The Big Ten tournament is being hosted by Minnesota, so you can expect a heavy dose of maroon and gold in the crowd during the first game.
The Gophers have put together a terrific season and have been one of the best ATS (against the spread) teams in the country. For the Spartans, well, MSU was a preseason top-five ranked team and finds themselves in the No. 8 seed of the Big Ten tournament.
This is not the same Michigan State team that beat Baylor or went head-to-head with Duke. The Spartans have lost four of the past five games entering their worst stretch of the season with two home losses and two on the road.
Minnesota comes in 1-4 in the last five as well and these two split the season series with each team winning at home. This matchup should be closer than +6 to +7 points and it would not be shocking to see the Gophers pull out the outright win.
I played Minnesota +6.5 at -110 odds and would go down to +6. I don't mind a sprinkle on the ML at +200 or better.
Pick: Minnesota +6.5 (1u)
ML Parlay (-117)
Toledo ML vs Kent State
Creighton ML vs Providence
Here's a Money Line parlay I like for today. I took Toledo to win the MAC at +340 odds, so of course I see them advancing in the first round.
The Rockets lost in the MAC Championship last season to Kent State, so this is a total payback spot as a -5.5 to -6 favorite. Toledo beat Kent State by 14 and 15 points in both meetings this season scoring 86 and 89 points. Last year, Toledo went 0-2 versus Kent State, so the turn tables have turned (Michael Scott voice).
In the Big East tournament, Creighton takes on Providence with a -7.5 spread. The Blue Jays are the biggest threat to beat UConn in the tournament, but first, they must beat the Friars.
Creighton split with Providence this season, losing by four points in OT at Providence and winning by 9 at home. The Blue Jays have won at least one Big East tournament game in three straight years and Providence is entering this tournament at MSG with Kim English for the first time, not longtime Big East "legend" Ed Cooley.
I parlayed Toledo's ML with Creighton's ML at -117 odds on FanDuel. This is -130 on DraftKings and I'd go to about -140, but I really like this parlay. For the Rockets, I grabbed the spread of -5.5 at -110 odds and would go to -6.
Pick: Toledo and Creighton ML Parlay (1u), Toledo -5.5 (1u)
Ohio State (-2) vs Iowa: O/U 155.0
Ohio State continues as one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten earning five wins over the past six games since Jake Diebler took over as head coach.
In Iowa's last seven games, the Hawkeyes are 4-3 with three double-digit losses and three wins of at least six points (one OT win). While Iowa was trending in the right direction with wins over Penn State and Northwestern, an embarrassing no-show at home versus Illinois was a sour way to wrap up the regular season.
On a neutral court, Ohio State beat Alabama, Santa Clara, UCLA, and West Virginia for a perfect 4-0 neutral court record this year compared to Iowa's 2-1 record with wins over Florida A&M and Seton Hall (lost by 12 vs Oklahoma).
With Diebler, OSU has not played a neutral court with him, but they were able to 2-1 on the road to close the season after 17 straight road losses under Chris Holtmann.
Give me Ohio State on the ML at -115 odds on FanDuel out to -135. I sprinkled OSU at +5000 to win the Big Ten Tournament, as well as Illinois (+500).
Pick: Ohio State ML (Risk 1.5u)
Season Record: 69-62 (52.6%) +0.25 units
CBB Futures In My Pocket:
Risk 2u: UConn to win the Big East Tournament (-135)
1u: Houston win the National Championship (+700)
1u: UConn to make the Final Four (+110)
1u: Duke to win the ACC Tournament (+180)
1u: Iowa State to make the Final Four (+550)
1u: South Florida to win the AAC Tournament (+500)
1u: Illinois to win the Big Ten Tournament (+500)
1u: Morehead State to win the OVC Tournament (+105)
1u: Samford to win the SoCon Tournament (+155)
1u: Stetson and Vermont Conference Parlay (+103)
1u: Toledo to win the MAC Tournament (+340)
0.1u: Ohio State to win the Big Ten Tournament (+5000)
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